Mea

INDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DANINDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DAN
VISI MARITIMVISI MARITIM
Faisal Basri
8 November8 November 20142014

Bagian IBagian I
Regionalisme, Asean, dan IndonesiaRegionalisme, Asean, dan Indonesia

From multilateralism to regionalism?
Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011.

From multilateralism to regionalism?
Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011.
Cumulative number of PTAs in force, 1950-2000, notified
and non-notified PTAs, by country group

expanding to
Eastern Europe
expanding to
Latin America
Main Regional FTAs
NAFTA
Population: 445 mil.
GDP: US$15.857 tril.
EU
GDP: US$ 14.38 tril.
CHINA
Population: 1.330 bil.
GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 tril.
JAPAN
GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 tril.
ASEAN
Population: 575.5 mil.
GDP: US$ 3.431 bil.
FTA Canada – Chile 1997
FTA : Chile – Mexico 1999
FTA : USA – Chile 2004
FTA : USA – Singapore 2004
FTA : USA – Australia 2005
FTA : Mexico – Japan 2005
FTA : Chile – Brunei – NZ –
Singapore 2006
MERCOSUR
Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay, Uruguay
FTAA
(by 2005)
under negotiation
NAFTA
U.S.A.,
Canada,
Mexico
SAPTA
Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India,
Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka
China - ASEAN FTA
ASEAN-Japan
Comprehensive
Economic Partnership
(AJCEP)
Japan-Korea FTA
(under negotiation)
Japan-Mexico EPA
(signed agreement)
Japan’s Bilaterals:
•Japan-Singapore EPA
•Japan-Philippines EPA
•Japan-Thailand EPA
•Japan-Malaysia EPA
•Japan-Indonesia EPAAFTA
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam,
Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia
India - ASEAN
FTA
EU-MEXICO
FTA
EU
25 countries
ACP-EU
Countries in Africa and
the Caribbean
(approx. 70 countries)
Japan-
Mexico
EPA
(signed agreement)
Japan-Korea-China FTA
(under negotiation)
Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA
Korea - ASEAN FTA

6
Asean in the global landscape: paling
banyak mitranya di dunia

Rezim perdagangan Indonesia sudah sangat
bebas
8.6
8.2
7.9
5.7
5.6
5.2
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.7
2.7
2.6
1.6
Venezuela (2011)
India (2009)
Brazil(2011)
Vietnam (2010)
Argentina (2011)
Russia (2011)
Thailand (2009)
Philippines (2010)
South Africa (2011)
China (2011)
Malaysia (2009)
Qatar (2009)
Bolivia (2011)
Turkey (2011)
Indonesia (2011)
United States (2011)
Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)
(2011 or latest data available)
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS

Aras tariff (bea masuk)
Versi Kemenkeu
1995: 15,48%
1998: 9,24%
2007: 7,81%
2011: 7,56%
Versi Bank Dunia
1995: 10,8%
1999: 6,1%
2007: 3,9%
2011: 2,6%
World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)
Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product
import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized
System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard
International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and
import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem
equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import
weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade
(Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are
averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is
unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.
World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)
Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product
import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized
System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard
International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and
import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem
equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import
weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade
(Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are
averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is
unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.

Indonesia: skema tarif bea masuk
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MFN 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 7,49
CEPT 3.4 2,8 2,8 2,0 1,9 1,9 0
ACFTA 9.9 9,6 9,5 6,4 6,4 3,8 2,9
AKFTA 9.9 9.9 9.5 6,6 6,0 2,6 2,6
AANZ 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 -
IJEPA 9.9 9.9 9.5 7.8 5,2 4,5 2,97
Sumber: Kemendag, 2009.

Goods imported tariff rates under ACFTA
* Average tariff on goods imported from Indonesia.
Source: The World Bank, March 2010.
Country 2005 206 207 2008 2009 2010
Indonesia 9.57 9.50 6.37 6.38 3.83 2.92
Thailand 12.36 12.36 8.38 8.38 5.10 2.67
Philippines n.a n.a n.a n.a 3.54 4.64
China* 8.30 8.30 6.55 6.55 3.02 1.05
Simple average, percent

Bagian IBagian III
Asean: Dari AFTA ke Mitra DagangAsean: Dari AFTA ke Mitra Dagang

Source: http://www.asean-community.au.edu/
Peta 10 negara anggota Asean

Negara
Biaya
Produksi
Dengan
Bea Masuk
50%
FTA
A+B
A (Ina) 50 50 50
B (Chn) 40 60 40
C (Bra) 30 45 45
FTA: trade diversion

Negara
Biaya
Produksi
Dengan
Bea Masuk
100%
FTA
A+B
A (Ina) 50 50 50
B (Chn) 40 80 40
C (Bra) 30 60 60
FTA: trade creation

FTA Asean-China
 Normal Track (target of tariff rate = 0%)
(a) Early Harvest Program (2006)
(b) NT1 (2010)
(c) NT2 (2012)
 Sensitive list
(a) Tahun 2012 tarif menjadi 20%
(b) Tahun 2018 tarif menjadi 0-5%
 Highly Sensitive list
Tahun 2015 tarif menjadi 50% (untuk produk
yang pada tahun 2002 tingkat tarifnya >50%)

Diuntungkankah Indonesia?
Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.

Dampak dan sektor yang dirugikan

Sektor-sektor yang diuntungkan
Perubahan
Output, %
1
Other Meat: pig meat and offal. preserves and preparations of meat, meat offal or
blood, flours, meals and pellets of meat or inedible meat offal; greaves
7.5
2
Chemical Rubber Products: basic chemicals, other chemical products, rubber and
plastics products
6.6
3 Non-Metallic Minerals: cement, plaster, lime, gravel, concrete 3.9
4
Other Animal Products: swine, poultry and other live animals; eggs, in shell (fresh
or cooked), natural honey, snails (fresh or preserved) except sea snails; frogs’
legs, edible products of animal origin n.e.c., hides, skins and furskins, raw , insect
waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or coloured
3.6
5 Milk: dairy products 3.3
6
Other Machinery & Equipment: electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.,
medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks
3.3
7
Other Food: prepared and preserved fish or vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable
juices, prepared and preserved fruit and nuts, all cereal flours, groats, meal and
pellets of wheat, cereal groats, meal and pellets n.e.c., other cereal grain products
(including corn flakes), other vegetable flours and meals, mixes and doughs for
the preparation of bakers’ wares, starches and starch products; sugars and sugar
syrups n.e.c., preparations used in animal feeding, bakery products, cocoa,
chocolate and sugar confectionery, macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar
farinaceous products, food products n.e.c.
2.5
8 Motor Vehicles: cars, lorries, trailers and semi-trailers 2.4
9 Construction: building houses factories offices and roads 2.2
10 Textiles: textiles and man-made fibres 1.8
Sumber: Output GTAP
SektorNo.

Sensitive track Indonesia
 Sensitive List: 304 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara lain
barang jadi kulit (tas, dompet); alas kaki (sepatu
sport, casual, kulit); kacamata; alat musik (tiup,
petik, gesek); mainan-boneka; alat olah raga; alat
tulis; besi dan baja; spare part; alat angkut;
glokasida dan alkaloid nabati; senyawa organik;
antibiotik; kaca; barang-barang plastik.
 Highly Sensitive List: 47 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara
lain terdiri dari produk pertanian, seperti beras,
gula, jagung dan kedelai; produk industri tekstil dan
produk tekstil (itpt); produk otomotif; produk
ceramic tableware.

Sayangnya, Indonesia satu-satunya negara
Asean yang alami defisit perdagangan dgn China
* January-August.
Source: BPS.
(Non-oil & gas trade account Indonesia-China,US$ million)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Exports 7,787 8,920 14,073 21,596 20,864 21,282 11,293
Imports -14,948 -13,491 -19,687 -25,456 -28,962 -29,570 -19,688
Trade Balance -7,161 -4,591 -5,614 -3,860 -8,098 -8,288 -8,395
% of Total
Exports 7.2 9.1 10.8 13.3 13.6 14.2 11.7
Imports 15.2 17.3 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.9 22.0
Rank
Exports 4 3 2 1 1 1 1
Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Growth of manufacturing industries
Source: BPS.
20092010 2011
Q1-
11
Q2-
11
Q3-
11
Q4-
11
Q1-
12
Q2-
12
Food, beverages and tobacco 11.2 2.7 9.2 4.0 9.4 8.3 14.0 8.2 6.0
Textiles, leather and footwear 0.6 1.7 7.5 10.4 8.2 7.3 4.0 1.4 4.3
Wood and forestry products -1.4 -3.5 0.4 -0.4 3.2 0.0 -1.8 -0.9 -7.9
Paper and printing 6.3 1.6 1.5 4.2 3.9 -1.2 -1.4 0.5 -7.4
Fertilizers, chemicals&ruber products 1.6 4.7 4.0 -0.1 6.7 5.8 3.0 9.2 2.2
Cement and non-metal quarrying -0.5 2.2 7.2 4.3 5.7 8.3 10.0 6.1 7.7
Basic metals and steel -4.3 2.6 13.1 18.2 15.5 11.4 9.3 5.6 1.9
Vehicles, machinery and equipments -2.9 10.4 7.0 8.8 4.5 7.8 6.6 6.2 11.7
NON-OIL & GAS MFG INDUSTRIES 2.6 5.1 6.8 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.4 6.1 6.0
TOTAL MFG INDUSTRIES 2.2 4.5 6.2 5.0 6.2 6.6 6.7 5.7 5.4
GDP 6.5 6.3 6.4
% change, year-on-year, 2009-2011

Bagian IBagian IIIII
MEA 2015: Menuju Integrasi a laMEA 2015: Menuju Integrasi a la
EC?EC?

Asean Economic Community
 Menuju integrasi “total” ikuti jejak Euro Zone?
Sejarahnya berbeda, setidaknya masih jauh. Sistem
politiknya juga berbeda.
 Perdagangan bebas dalam skema AFTA sejak 2002
sudah nyarus tuntas.
 Perluasan cakupan ke sektor jasa dan investasi
 Sharing prosperity.
 MEA ditopang oleh proyek konektivitas
(connectivity)
 Peran mitra “dekat” Asean  East Asia Economic
Community: Asean+3 (China, Korea, Japan)

Perdagangan intra-Asean sangat dan tetap kecil
Value
(US$ billion)
Percent
of total
2004 260,9 24,3
2011 598,2 25,0
2013 608,6 24,2
Intra-Asean Trade
Intra-EU Trade (EU-25)
2004: 67.6 percent
Intra-NAFTA Trade
2004: 55.9 percent

Perdagangan Intra-Asean dan mitra utama
Trading Bloc (2013, in US$)
Total trade between the
Asociation of Southeast Asian
Nations and 10 biggest partners
= US$1,358
Source: asean.org

Intra- and extra-Asean trade
Source: Asean Secretariat.
Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Intra-Asean Extra-Asean
Brunei D 23.1 76.9 51.0 49.0 29.8 70.2
Cambodia 14.2 85.8 30.7 69.3 22.5 77.5
Indonesia 22.3 77.7 29.0 71.0 25.6 74.4
Lao PDR 47.6 52.4 75.8 24.2 63.4 36.6
Malaysia 28.1 71.9 26.7 73.3 27.4 72.6
Myanmar 49.2 50.8 35.3 64.7 42.1 57.9
Philippines 16.0 84.0 21.8 78.2 19.1 80.9
Singapore 31.4 68.6 20.9 79.1 26.4 73.6
Thailand 25.9 74.1 17.8 82.2 21.7 78.3
Vietnam 13.7 86.3 16.2 83.8 14.9 85.1
ASEAN 26.0 74.0 22.4 77.6 24.2 75.8
Exports Imports Total trade
(2013, %)

Direction of non-oil exports (f.o.b.,%)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Asean 21.8 21.0 20.8 19.9 20.4 20.1 19.8
Singapore 9.4 8.1 7.4 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0
Malaysia 5.5 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 4.8 4.4
Thailand 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.5
Others 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.8
European Union 14.2 13.9 13.2 12.6 11.7 11.1 11.7
Germany 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0
France 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
United Kingdom 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Other 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.9
Other Major Countries 40.6 42.2 43.5 51.7 51.8 51.2 49.7
China 7.2 9.1 10.8 13.3 13.6 14.2 11.7
Japan 12.8 12.3 12.7 11.3 11.2 10.7 9.8
United States 11.6 10.7 10.3 9.7 9.5 10.1 10.8
India - - 7.6 8.2 8.1 8.7 8.2
Australia 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.6
Korea 4.3 5.3 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8
Taiwan 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8
Others 23.4 22.9 22.5 15.8 16.1 17.6 18.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
* January-August.
Source: BPS.

Source: http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2012/11/09/china-to-join-rcep-creating-
massive-free-trade-area-with-asean-india-and-japan.html
Asean diapit oleh negara-negara besar

Asean Economic Community bukan integrasi
 Jika MEA diterapkan secara konsisten seperti EU, maka
free movements of factors of production meliputi: tenaga
kerja (free labor area), modal (free capital area),
pengusaha (free entrepreneur area), dan tanah (free
ownership of lands)
 Seribu satu masalah muncul. Kalaupun hendak diterapkan
akan mengalami berbagai tahapan.
 Asean tidak menuju pada integrasi ekonomi (economic
integration = harmonisasi kebijakan ekonomi—yang EU
pun belum sepenuhnya), apalagi total integration.
 Connectivity berbeda dengan integrasi. Pemilihan istilah
connectivity merupakan bahasa halus bahwa Asean tidak
dirancang untuk berintegrasi.

Connectivity
 Physical connectivity
 Transport
 Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
 Energy
 Institutional connectivity
 Trade liberalisation and facilitation
 Investment and services liberalisation and facilitation
 Mutual recognition agreements/arrangements
 Regional transport agreements
 Cross-border procedures
 Capacity building programmes
 People-to-people connectivity
 Education and Culture
 Tourism

Interaction Asean connectivity - Asean
Community

Bagian IBagian IVV
Jadi, MEA Targetnya Apa?Jadi, MEA Targetnya Apa?

Pasar Asean cukup menggiurkan
Meningkatkan daya tarik investasi asing karena pasar
yang cukup besar (economies of scale sekawasan) 
bangun pabrik di satu lokasi dijual ke seluruh Asean.
2.388
964
692
643
475
425
46
33
30
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
Singapore
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Brunei Darussalam
Asean GDP, PPP (Billions of international dollars, 2013)

Indonesia is the world’s 10 largest
producer of goods and services
* Asean minus Myanmar
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
16.800
16.158
6.774
5.696
4.624
3.493
3.461
3.012
2.437
2.388
2.320
United States
China
India
Asean*
Japan
Germany
Russian Federation
Brazil
France
Indonesia
United Kingdom
(Purchasing power parity (PPP),
billions of international dollars, 2013)

Asean masuk kategori tersendiri di IMF

Asean GDP per capita: current US$ and
purchasing power parity (PPP)
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
1.008
1.646
1.911
2.765
3.475
5.779
10.514
38.563
55.182
3.042
4.812
5.293
6.533
9.559
14.390
23.298
71.759
78.744
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
US$, 2013
PPP Current US$

More FDI from intra-Asean as well as the World
Asean Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows, US$ million, 2000 and 2011
Source: Asean Secretariat, ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System Full Report 2012, Jakarta, September 2013, p. 52.

Rata-rata 4 negara Asean selalu masuk 10
besar FDI Jepang selama 1997-2013
Rank 1997 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1st China China China China China China China China China China China Indonesia
2nd USA Thailand Thailand India India India India India India India India India
3rd Indonesia USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Thailand
4th Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand Russia Thailand Thailand Vietnam Thailand China
5th India India USA USA USA Russia Thailand Russia Brazil Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam
6th Vetnam Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA Brazil Brazil Indonesia Brazil Brazil Brazil
7th Philippines Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil USA USA Russia Russia Mexico Mexico
8th
Malaysia Taiwan Korea Indonesia Korea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia USA USA Russia Myanmar
9th Brazil Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea Korea Korea Korea Malaysia Myanmar Russia
10th Taiwan Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan USA USA
Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese manufacturing companies over the
medium term (next 3 years or so): China is no longer the most promising destination
Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing
Companies,” various issues.

Singapore dan Indonesia masuk Top 20 host
economies untuk FDI
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page xv.
17
17
18
20
24
27
28
30
36
37
38
39
50
62
64
64
77
79
124
188
20. Italy
19. Colombia
18. Indonesia
17. Chile
16. Netherlands
15. Germany
14. India
13. Luxerbourg
12. Ireland
11. United Kingdom
10. Mexico
9. Spain
8. Australia
7. Canada
6.Singapore
5.Brazil
4. Hong Kong, China
3. Russian Federation
2. China
1. United States
Developing economies
Developed economies
2013, Billions of US dollars

5 negara Asean masuk TNC’s top prospective
host economies for 2014-16
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page 28.

The Economist: 4 negara Asean mendominasi
investment destination in Asia (2013)
Source: The Economist, Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2013.
37,7
38,6
43,0
53,5
54,1
73,8
32,8
33,9
38,5
27,1
32,0
20,6
26,2
25,2
16,3
18,6
13,9
5,0
3,3
2,4
2,2
0,8
0,7
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
China
Increase investment Still in the market, but will not invest more
Have no plan to invest Reduce investment

Rangkuman
 AEC meningkatkan daya saing Asean secara kesatuan
sebagai destinasi investasi dari berbagai negara.
 Investor asing tak perlu lagi membangun fasilitas produksi
di setiap negara Asean. Pembagian kerja semakin tajam
dalam kerangka regional production network. 
Indonesia mau dapat apa? Harapannya sebanyak mungkin
karena memiliki pasar yang paling besar.
 Persaingan terjadi bukan di antara perusahaan di Asean,
melainkan persaingan antarnegara. Negara yang berhasil
menawarkan fixed cost paling rendah berpeluang dapat
lebih banyak. Variable cost semakin kurang menentukan.
 Tidak hanya sebagai regional production base, tetapi juga
global production base.

Quantity0
Rp
ATCM
QM QI
PM
PI
PFTA
QFTA
ATCI
Ilustrasi teoretis
 Indonesia
merupakan
pasar
terbesar
kedua di
dunia untuk
Blackberry.
 Tetapi
Blackberry
diputuskan
diprodukdi
di Malaysia.
PI*
XM
high cost

Sumber informasi dan statistik Asean
 Asean Community Pregress
Monitoring System 2012:
http://www.bps.go.id/download_file/
 Asean Secretariat:
http://www.asean.org/asean/asean-s
 Institute of Southeast Asian
Studies (ISEAS):
http://www.iseas.edu.sg/
 Asean Economic Community
Blueprint:
http://www.asean.org/archive/5187-1

BagianBagian VV
MEA dan Visi Maritim KitaMEA dan Visi Maritim Kita

Simbolisme kembali ke jati diri: negara maritim
KOMPAS.COM/RODERICK ADRIAN
MOZES
Kompas.com/Fabian Januardo
Kuwado

Dua tonggak kejayaan Nusantara: Kerajaan
Sriwijaya dan Kerajaan Majapahit
 Kejayaan Sriwijaya pada abad ke-9 ditandai dengan
kekuasaannya hingga ke Jawa, Kalimantan, dan
Semenanjung Malaya.
 Selain itu, Kerajaan Sriwijaya menguasai jalur perdagangan
di Asia Tenggara dan memiliki pengaruh kuat di jalur
perdagangan antara China dan India.
 Tanpa kekuatan armada laut yang tangguh, niscaya
pengaruh Sriwijaya tidak akan diperhitungkan di kawasan
Asia.
 Ketangguhan armada laut pula yang mewarnai kejayaan
Majapahit pada abad ke-14. Majapahit mampu menguasai
seantero Nusantara, Semenanjung Malaya, dan armada
lautnya menjelajah hingga ke Laut China Selatan.

Srikandi penjelajah samudera
Laksamana Keumalahayati
 Hidup sekitar abad XV dan awal
abad XVI. Sumber lain: 1585-
1604.
 Laksamana perempuan pertama
di dunia.
 Ayah dan kakeknya juga
laksamana di kesultanan Aceh
 Dengan gemilang bertempur
melawan Portugis dan Belanda.
Pada 1599 komandan kapal
Belanda, Cornelis de Houtman,
tewas dalam pertempuran yang
dipimpin Laksamana
Malahayati.

Jati diri sebagai negara maritim
 Indonesia merupakan negara lautan yang dihiasi sekitar
17.508 pulau yang membentuk untaian zamrud khatulistiwa.
 Gugusan pulau (archipelago): perairan laut yang bertaburan
pulau, bukan “pulau-pulau yang dikelilingi laut”.
 Wilayah Tanah Air Indonesia seluas 5,2 juta km2
, dua
pertiganya berupa lautan yang mempersatukan gugusan
kepulauan Nusantara, bukan memisahkan dan
menjadikannya berjauhan satu sama lain.
 Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan paling besar di
dunia. Deklarasi Djuanda 13 Desember 1957 pun
menyatakan Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan.
 Indonesia sebagai negara maritim dengan garis pantai
95.181 km, terpanjang ke-4 di dunia. Kesadaran itu sudah
lama kokoh di bumi Pertiwi.
 Bangsa kita menggunakan istilah tanah air untuk tumpah
darahnya, bukan padanan dari motherland atau homeland.

Dikumandangkan lewat lagu “Dari Barat
Sampai ke Timur”
 “Dari Barat sampai ke Timur
Berjajar pulau-pulau
Sambung-menyambung menjadi satu
Itulah Indonesia …..”
--Wage Rudolf Supratman
 Lautlah yang mempersambungkan 17.508 pulau
itu, bukan jembatan.
 Tuhan mengaruniai kita jalan bebas hambatan tak
berbayar, tidak perlu diaspal, tidak perlu tiang
pancang, dan tidak membutuhkan pembebasan
tanah.

Negara maritim  the archipelago economy
“Untuk membangun Indonesia menjadi negara besar, negara kuat, negara makmur, negara damai yang merupakan
National Building bagi negara Indonesia, maka negara dapat menjadi kuat jika dapat menguasai lautan. Untuk
menguasai lautan kita harus menguasai armada yang seimbang.”
(Ir. Soekarno dalam National Maritime Convention I (NMC), 1963)

Mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik:
memperkecil TIGA DISPARITASTIGA DISPARITAS
Source: R.J. Lino’s presentatatiom, March 2011.

1. Disparitas harga produsen dan konsumen
 Di Jakarta, harga duku
“Pontianak” di salah satu
supermarket pada 8
September 2014 Rp
28.900/kg
 Di Pontianak:
• Minggu pertama
September 6 kg Rp 20.000
= Rp 3.333/kg
• Minggu kedua 4 kg Rp
20.000 = Rp 5.000/kg
 Harga di Jakarta 5,8-8,7
kali lipat harga di
Pontianak.

Price disparities (Rupiah)
Region Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt
East Jawa 4,250 3,606 6,000 4,150 1,600
West Kalimantan 4,400 4,000 5,800 4,500 2,450
East Kalimantan 4,500 4,000 6,500 4,500 2,000
South Sulawesi 4,400 3,500 6,500 4,500 2,000
East Nusa
Tenggara 4,200 4,500 5,800 6,300 2,000
Merauke 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,670 3,000
Nabire 6,000 10,000 11,000 11,000 4,000
Paniai 18,000 7,500 8,000 7,000 8,000
Source: Ministry of Trade.

2. Disparitas harga lokal dan impor
 Survei Bank Dunia (pra-regulasi impor holtikultura)
• Harga di supermarket Jakarta
• Jeruk Tiongkok …… Rp 17.000 per kg
• Jeruk Medan ……… Rp 20.000 per kg
 Observasi terbaru di 2 supermarket (Rp per kg)
22 Februari 2004 22 Februari 2004 26 April 2004
Rp 35.500 Rp 37.000
Rp 32.900
Rp 34.900
Rp 19.900
Rp 46.900

3. Disparitas ongkos angkut ekspor dan impor
Source: Asean Secretariat, ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System Full Report 2012, Jakarta, September 2013, p. 43.

This explains why oranges from Medan are
more expensive to some extent….

Jeruk impor diangkut kapal berpengatur suhu,
kapasitas ribuan kali lipat truk, bebas hambatan

Cement in Papua is 20
times more expensive
than in Jakarta because
of shipping costs
Container Shipment cost:
Padang – Jakarta = US$600
Jakarta – Singapore = US$185
Fakta lain yang membuat miris

Potensi kekayaan laut
 Bumi Indonesia di bawah laut mengandung minyak
bumi dan gas alam
 Perairan ZEE berpotensi menghasilkan 6,7 juta ton ikan
per tahun, belum lagi laut nasional seluas 75% dari
seluruh permukaan wilayah nasional  sumber
protein sehat (ironi daging sapi)
 Setiap satu kilometer kubik air laut mengandung:
• Oksigen (O) dan Hidrogen (H)
• 35 juta ton garam, 66.000 ton bromium, 200 ton litium, 50 ton
yodium, dan 1 ton titanium, uranium, perak, dan emas
 Di dasar laut: bungkalan-bungkalan sebesar kentang
yang mengandung mangan, besi, nikel, tembaga,
kobalt, titanium, dan vanadium.
Sumber: Daoed Joesoef, “Jalesveva Jayamahe,” Tinjauan Pembangunan Maritim Indonesia,
Edisi II Tahun 2013: Menggapai Negara Maritim, hal. 6-7.

Sealanes of communication
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_America

Mengelola kekayaan laut
 “A democratic power is never likely to perish for
lack of strength or of its resources, but it may very
well fall because of the misdirection of its strength
and the abuse of its resources.” –Alexis de Tocqueville
 Politik pertahanan: bangun angkatan laut yang
kokoh untuk melindungi tumpah darah Indonesia.
 Orientasi ke laut sejalan dengan budaya ourward
looking sejak nenek moyang kita. Ancaman berasal
dari luar [Orientasi darat dengan dominasi angkatan
darat membuat kita inward looking, cenderung
memosisikan ancaman berasal dari dalam 
konsep teritorial.

Kegiatan transportasi laut global/interna-
sional pada awal abad ke-21
 Global
• Sekitar 90% perdagangan dunia diangkut berbagai sarana
transportasi laut.
• Dewasa ini kegitan global tersebut melibatkan sekitar 60.000 kapal
dan 1 juta ABK
 Internasional
• Sekitar 40% transportasi laut yang melibatkan perekonomian banyak
negara dalam kegiatan perdagangan internasional harus melalui 4
SLOC (Sealanes of Communication) di wilayah Asia Tenggara
 Regional
• Sekitar 3.000 kapal berbagai ukuran dan jenis harus menggunakan
SLOC Selat Malaka setiap harinya
• Sekitar 1.000 tankers, LNG trains, bulk carriers setiap tahun harus
menggunakan 4 SLOC itu.
Sumber: Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, “Bagaimana Memposisikan Wilayah Maritim NKRI dalam Konteks Geostrategi Abad ke-21?”
Tinjauan Pembangunan Maritim Indonesia, Edisi II Tahun 2013: Menggapai Negara Maritim, hal. 71.

Menunggu otoritas pengawal laut dan
pantai
 Selama ini yang sudah ada adalah Kesatuan Penjaga Laut
dan Pantai RI (Indonesia Sea and Coast Guard) di bawah
Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Laut, Kementerian
Perhubungan  tidak sesuai dengan yang diemban
sebagai otoritas Negara Pantai atau Coastal State.
 Karena Ditjen Perhubungan Laut merupakan representasi
Indonesia di IMO (International Maritime Organization) di
bawah PBB, maka dunia internasional tahunya KPLP
adalah coast guard Indonesia. Sedang KPLP di bawah
dirjen tidak sesuai sbg Otoritas Negara Pantai yang harus
dibentuk berdasar undang-undang dan harus di bawah
Presiden sebagai sebuah sistem pemerintahan Negara di
laut.

Logistics performance index, 2014, n=160
Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index: LPI Results 2014 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/)
Country
LPI
rank
LPI
score Customs
Infra-
structure
International
shipments
Logistic
competence
Tracking &
tracing
Time-
lines
Singapore 5 4.00 4.01 4.28 3.70 3.97 3.90 4.25
Hong Kong 15 3.83 3.72 3.97 3.58 3.81 3.87 4.00
Malaysia 25 3.59 3.37 3.56 3.64 3.47 3.58 3.92
China 28 3.53 3.21 3.67 3.50 3.46 3.50 3.87
Thailand 35 3.43 3.21 3.40 3.30 3.29 3.45 3.96
Vietnam 48 3.15 2.81 3.11 3.22 3.09 3.19 3.49
Indonesia 53 3.08 2.87 2.92 2.87 3.21 3.11 3.53
India 54 3.08 2.72 2.88 3.20 3.03 3.11 3.51
Philippines 57 3.00 3.00 2.60 3.33 2.93 3.00 3.07
Cambodia 83 2.74 2.67 2.58 2.83 2.67 2.92 2.75
Lao, PDR 131 2.39 2.45 2.21 2.50 2.31 2.20 2.65
Myanmar 145 2.25 1.97 2.14 2.14 2.07 2.36 2.83

LPI Indonesia, 2007-2014
Rank
Score
Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index: LPI Results 2014 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/)

Public and customers perception improved
Source: JR Lino presentation (IPC) based on World Bank, January 2013.

But…. the solution is this!!!

Wujud bersyukur adalah dengan kembali ke
jati diri, laut sejahterakan rakyatnya
“Maka ni’mat Tuhan kamu yang
manakah yang kamu dustakan?”
(Al-Quran, Surat Ar-Rahman 55: 13, 16, 21, 23, 25, 28, 30, 32,
34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 45, 47, 51, 53, 55, 57, 59, 61, 63, 65, 67, 69,
71, 73, 75, 77)

BagianBagian VIVI
PPotret Pendidikan Indonesiaotret Pendidikan Indonesia

Sesat pikir luar biasa
 Nyata-nyata bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang
No.20/2003 Pasal 4 ayat 1: Perlakuan diskriminatif antara
sekolah/guru negeri. Harusnya pendekatan fungsi, bukan
status.
 Dikerangkeng oleh birokrasi pendidikan dan pengkotak-
kotakan: guru matematika di madrasah dibina oleh
Kemenag, di pendidikan umum oleh Kemendikbud.
 Kurang guru tapi IKIP dikerdilkan
 Pendekatan input, bukannya output
 Kerap jalan pintas
 Menyamakan guru dan dosen: kementerian Pendidikan
Dasar-Menengah dan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi dan
Ristek

Pendekatan output ketimbang input
 Pemerintah tidak pernah berani menetapkan output yang
terukur. UU hanya mencantumkan tujuan yang bersifat
normatif.
 Output = f (Family, Teachers, School inputs, Peers, Innate
ability)
 Output: Math, Science, Reading, Problem solving

Knowledge & skills performance of the world’s
15-year-olds students based on PISA surveys
2012
Rank
(n=65) Country/Economy 2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012
1 Shanghai-China 600 613 556 570 575 580
2 Singapore 562 573 526 542 542 551
3 Hong Kong-China 555 561 533 545 549 555
4 Chinese Taipei 543 560 495 523 520 523
5 Korea 546 554 539 536 538 538
7 Japan 529 536 520 538 539 547
17 Viet Nam n.a. 511 n.a. 508 n.a. 528
50 Thailand 419 427 421 441 425 444
52 Malaysia n.a. 421 n.a. 441 n.a. 420
64 Indonesia 371 375 402 396 383 382
65 Peru 365 368 370 384 369 373
Mathematics Reading Science
Source: OECD, PISA (The Programme for International Student Assessment) database.

Indonesia: deceleration in mathematics
performance
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Coef. S.E.
Hong Kong-China 0,3 (0,21)
Indonesia -0,7 (0,26)
Jordan -0,2 (0,51)
Kazakhstan m m
Latvia 0,1 (0,20)
Liechtenstein 0,3 (0,25)
Lithuania 0,7 (0,37)
Macao-China 0,4 (0,14)
Malaysia m m
Montenegro 0,2 (0,31)
Peru m m
Qatar -2,3 (0,21)
Romania 0,3 (0,54)
Russian Federation 0,1 (0,23)
Serbia 0,0 (0,45)
Shanghai-China m m
Singapore m m
Chinese Taipei 1,3 (0,52)
Thailand 0,2 (0,17)
Tunisia 0,3 (0,20)
United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m
Uruguay -0,6 (0,18)
Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean
mathematics performance in PISA 2003 through 2012

Coef. S.E.
Hong Kong-China 0,1 (0,19)
Indonesia -0,4 (0,25)
Jordan -0,6 (0,65)
Kazakhstan m m
Latvia -0,4 (0,18)
Liechtenstein -0,4 (0,18)
Lithuania 0,6 (0,55)
Macao-China 0,8 (0,23)
Malaysia m m
Montenegro -0,1 (0,51)
Peru 0,0 (0,31)
Qatar -2,4 (0,47)
Romania 1,2 (0,28)
Russian Federation 0,8 (0,19)
Serbia -2,0 (0,59)
Shanghai-China m m
Singapore m m
Chinese Taipei 1,6 (0,60)
Thailand 0,7 (0,20)
Tunisia -0,1 (0,30)
United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m
Uruguay 0,2 (0,28)
Indonesia: deceleration in reading
performance
Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean
reading performance in PISA 2003 through 2012

Indonesia: juga kemunduran dalam science
Change between
2006 and 2012
(PISA 2012 - PISA
2006)
Change between
2009 and 2012
(PISA 2012 - PISA
2009)
Annualised change
in science across
PISA assessments
Score dif. S.E. Score dif. S.E.
Annual
change S.E.
Hong Kong-China 13 (5,0) 6 (4,3) 2,1 (0,85)
Indonesia -12 (7,7) -1 (5,7) -1,9 (1,33)
Jordan -13 (5,5) -6 (5,1) -2,1 (0,91)
Kazakhstan m m 24 (4,8) 8,1 (1,56)
Latvia 13 (5,4) 8 (4,6) 2,0 (0,90)
Liechtenstein 3 (6,5) 5 (5,3) 0,4 (1,03)
Lithuania 8 (5,1) 4 (4,4) 1,3 (0,94)
Macao-China 10 (3,8) 10 (2,4) 1,6 (0,64)
Malaysia m m -3 (4,5) -1,4 (1,96)
Montenegro -2 (3,8) 9 (3,0) -0,3 (0,64)
Peru m m 4 (5,4) 1,3 (1,94)
Qatar 34 (3,7) 4 (2,3) 5,4 (0,61)
Romania 20 (6,4) 11 (5,1) 3,4 (1,08)
Russian Federation 7 (5,8) 8 (4,8) 1,0 (1,00)
Serbia 9 (5,8) 2 (4,6) 1,5 (1,03)
Shanghai-China m m 6 (4,3) 1,8 (1,50)
Singapore m m 10 (2,9) 3,3 (0,93)
Chinese Taipei -9 (5,5) 3 (4,0) -1,5 (0,92)
Thailand 23 (5,1) 19 (4,6) 3,9 (0,82)
Tunisia 13 (5,7) -3 (4,8) 2,2 (1,03)
United Arab Emirates - Ex.
Dubai m m 10 (5,4) 5,1 (2,75)
Uruguay -12 (5,2) -11 (4,3) -2,1 (0,91)
Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012

Indonesia: juga mengalami kemunduran
dalam science
Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012
PISA 2006 PISA 2009 PISA 2012
Mean
score S.E.
Mean
score S.E.
Mean
score S.E.
OECD average 2006 498 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5)
OECD average 2009 m m 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5)
Hong Kong-China 542 (2,5) 549 (2,8) 555 (2,6)
Indonesia 393 (5,7) 383 (3,8) 382 (3,8)
Jordan 422 (2,8) 415 (3,5) 409 (3,1)
Kazakhstan m m 400 (3,1) 425 (3,0)
Latvia 490 (3,0) 494 (3,1) 502 (2,8)
Liechtenstein 522 (4,1) 520 (3,4) 525 (3,5)
Lithuania 488 (2,8) 491 (2,9) 496 (2,6)
Macao-China 511 (1,1) 511 (1,0) 521 (0,8)
Malaysia m m 422 (2,7) 420 (3,0)
Montenegro 412 (1,1) 401 (2,0) 410 (1,1)
Peru m m 369 (3,5) 373 (3,6)
Qatar 349 (0,9) 379 (0,9) 384 (0,7)
Romania 418 (4,2) 428 (3,4) 439 (3,3)
Russian Federation 479 (3,7) 478 (3,3) 486 (2,9)
Shanghai-China m m 575 (2,3) 580 (3,0)
Singapore m m 542 (1,4) 551 (1,5)
Chinese Taipei 532 (3,6) 520 (2,6) 523 (2,3)
Thailand 421 (2,1) 425 (3,0) 444 (2,9)
Tunisia 386 (3,0) 401 (2,7) 398 (3,5)
United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai m m 429 (3,3) 439 (3,8)
Uruguay 428 (2,7) 427 (2,6) 416 (2,8)

Teachers’ salaries and mathematics
performance
Source: OECD, PISA Results in Focus: What 15-year-olds know and what they can do with what they know, Paris, 2013: 27.

Masa depan makin suram
 Masa depan kemajuan bangsa ditentukan oleh kemajuan
teknologi
 Bukan sekedar teknologi, melainkan teknologi masa depan
 Teknologi masa depan:
• Nanotechnology
• Biotechnology
• ICT
• Green technology

(% of GDP)
Source: World Bank
R&D expenditure

R&D as a percentage of gross domestic product
Source: Battelle, 2014 Global R&D Funding Forecast, December 2013: 6.

Source: INSEAD, The Global Innovation Index 2012.
68.2
64.8
63.5
61.8
61.2
60.5
59.9
58.7
58.7
57.7
56.4
56.2
56.0
53.9
51.7
45.9
45.4
44.4
41.1
39.5
39.3
37.9
37.7
37.4
36.9
36.6
35.7
33.9
29.0
28.1
16.8
Switzerland(1)
Sweden(2)
Singapore(3)
Finland(4)
UK(5)
Netherlands(6)
Denmark(7)
HongKong(8)
Ireland(9)
USA(10)
Norway(14)
Germany(15)
Israel(17)
Korea(21)
Japan(25)
Malaysia(32)
China(34)
UAE(37)
Bahrain(41)
Oman(47)
SaudiArabia(48)
RussianFederation…
BruneiDarussalam…
SouthAfrica(54)
Thailand(57)
Brazil(58)
India(64)
VietNam(76)
Philippines(95)
Indonesia(100)
Sudan(141)
Global innovation index 2012 (n=141)

Patent applications as % of China’s owned
(2012 = 535,313), Indonesia (2011) = 541 (0.13)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
India Malaysia Singapore Thailand Indonesia
Patent applications, residents
Patent applications are worldwide patent applications
filed through the Patent Cooperation Treaty procedure or
with a national patent office for exclusive rights for an
invention--a product or process that provides a new way
of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a
problem. A patent provides protection for the invention
to the owner of the patent for a limited period, generally
20 years.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

H index, 1996-2012
( ) Rank
Source: http://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?area=0&category=0&region=all&year=all&order=it&min=0&min_type=it

Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Twitter: @faisalbasri
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri01.wordpress.com

Mea

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (10)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (15)

Similar to Mea

Similar to Mea (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Mea