Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the Grassroots Level
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Georgetown Leadership Seminar Washington, DC, USA October 2017
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Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the Grassroots Level
- 1. Mahmoud Mohieldin, Senior Vice President World Bank Group Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the Grassroots Level @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs 0
- 2. Georgetown Leadership Seminar Wednesday October 25th at 12:30 PM Global Context: Prospects and Challenges The 2030 Agenda and the SDGs: An Opportunity for Transformation Solutions: What to Avoid and What to Pursue Role of the WBG Data, finance, and implementation Implementation Happens at the Local Level 1
- 3. Global Context: Prospects and Challenges 2
- 4. GDP Growth (Percent) Source: World Bank, 2017 Global Context 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f Advanced Economies Emerging Mkt and Developing Economies World 3
- 5. Source: Danny Quah, 2011 The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980–2016, in black, at three-year intervals 1980 1989 1998 2007 2016 2049 Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity 4
- 6. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012 Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity 5
- 7. Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity Channels of growth spillovers from a growth pole Source: World Bank staff calculations. Note: Arrows point to direction of flow, whereby growth from a pole can influence growth elsewhere, while annotations indicate the specific growth stimuli transferred to the beneficiary of the pole. 6
- 8. Drivers of the Global Development Agenda: Last 15 Years in Developing Economies Macro-stability and demographic dividends Poverty reduction and middle class growth China led growth and commodity boom (emerging markets)Positive Conditions for Twin Goals 7
- 9. End of the Commodity super- cycle Diminished capital & trade flows Slowing China growth Increasing Headwinds Thin Policy Buffer High Debt Levels Slow Growth Fiscal Pressures Internal Vulnerabilities Sputtering Drivers?: Recent Conditions 8
- 10. Addressing Global Megatrends & Challenges Economic diversification; 600 million new jobs (SDG#8) Sustainable Health & welfare system (SDG#3) Urban management (SDG#11) Private expertise/funding for infrastructure/urban services (SDG#11; SDG#9; SDG#17) Shift from fossil fuels to renewables/ efficiency (SDG#7) Agriculture adaptation (SDG#2) Shocks and risks preparedness (SDG#13) Protecting vulnerable from fragility & violence (SDG#1; SDG#16) New sources of growth and trade, especially for commodity exporters (SDG#9) Demographic and Growth Transitions Urbanization Shifts in Global Economy Climate and Resources Cycles, Disruptions and Fragility 9
- 11. The 2030 Agenda and the SDGs: An Opportunity for Transformation 10
- 12. Looking Back: MDG Progress By number of countries Source: World Bank data, staff calculations 71 35 40 67 38 6 15 67 36 11 8 12 10 18 9 3 5 7 7 4 11 7 16 23 11 2 7 2 13 17 11 37 28 20 12 14 27 52 40 28 34 77 88 40 58 27 33 25 22 2 2 8 19 23 MDG 1.1 - Extreme Poverty MDG 1.9 Under-nourishment MDG 2.1 - Primary Completion MDG 3.1 - Education Gender Parity MDG 4.1 - Under-5 Mortality MDG 4.2 - Infant Mortality MDG 5.1 - Maternal Mortality MDG 7.8 - Improved Water MDG 7.9 - Improved Sanitation Target Met Sufficient Progress Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data 11
- 13. Progress on the MDGs Share Of Global Poverty 51% 0% 4% 30% 15% 1990 East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Global poverty: 1.96 billion 37.1 % of global population 12% 1% 4% 33% 50% 2015 Global poverty: 702 million 9.6% of global population 12
- 14. An Opportunity for Transformation: Lessons Learned from the MDGs • Ensure the timeliness and effectiveness of policy instruments • Increase efficient allocation of resources • Recognize and identify interrelatedness of development goals at the onset • Ensure strong government involvement • Promote quality data • Increase cross-institutional collaboration • Prioritize engagement of communities and community mobilization • Bridge the humanitarian and development agendas Based on report: “Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs” jointly written by the World Bank Group and the UN Development Programme 13
- 15. An Opportunity for Transformation: From MDGs to SDGs The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national development path MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals 8 17 Targets 21 169 Indicators 60 ~231 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal 14
- 16. An Opportunity for Transformation: 15
- 17. Solutions: What to Avoid and What to Pursue 16
- 18. • Dealing with joblessness by relying on the civil service; • Cutting fiscal deficits by sacrificing public investment in infrastructure; • Subsidizing energy except for very limited subsidies to highly vulnerable sections of the population; • Open ended protection for specific sectors; • Imposing administrative price controls; • Banning exports; • Underpaying civil servants compared to the private sector; • Exchange rate misalignment; • Resisting urbanization/underinvesting in infrastructure; • Ignoring environmental implications; • Poorly regulating the Banking sector and excessive interference; • Measuring educational progress solely by higher enrollments and ignoring the quality of education Solutions: Avoid bad ideas The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 200817
- 19. Solutions: Increase domestic savings *Gross domestic savings are calculated as GDP less final consumption expenditure (total consumption) Key drivers of domestic savings* • Improve real income through increasing total factor productivity, labor efficiency, and maintaining price stability • Reform public social security and commercial insurance systems • Influence savings behavior; e.g. introduce savings certificates for all students and bank accts/digital savings accounts for all university or higher ed. students • Mobilize digital/biometric ID systems • Develop financial services, instruments, competition, and access 18
- 20. Solutions: Take the SDGs seriously EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION ADEQUATE DATA Provide integrated solutions and work across sectors/ministries Ensure availability of household budget surveys in 78 poorest countries every three years; data revolution; statistical capacity building BETTER FINANCING Domestic resource mobilization; leveraging private sector; addressing needs of regional and global public goods 19
- 21. Role of the WBG: Data, Finance, and Implementation 20
- 22. Data: Crucial to understand how trends are shifting 21
- 23. Data: List of countries with 0, 1, or 2 poverty data points Without accurate and timely data, we don’t know where the needs are greatest and whether our interventions are even working 22
- 24. Data: Standardization is key How do different countries define a city? 23
- 25. Data: Standardization is key What does “access to water” mean? 24
- 26. Data: The Role of the WBG Three areas of work: • Strengthening partnerships • Producing data and cross-country indicators • Fostering client country data production, dissemination, and use Some specific examples of WBG support to countries include: • Technical assistance on household survey programs • Civil registration and Vital Statistics systems • Earth observation data and geospatial mapping • Identification for Development (ID4D) initiative • World Development Indicators and SDG Atlas 25
- 27. 1. National public resources: Improving domestic resource mobilization (DRM) 2. Global public resources: Better and smarter aid 3. National and global private resources: Unlocking private investment for development, Attracting FDI, Remittances, Philanthropic finance Financing the SDGs: The key components 26
- 28. Financing the SDGs: Private sector engagement is critical 1990 2015 $ BILLIONS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE Soaring Private Capital Flows, Flat Official Development Assistance Source: IFC Presentation to Center for Global Development, February 2017 27
- 29. Assets held by the world’s ten largest pension funds Financing the SDGs: Assets held by the world’s largest insurance companies Assets held by the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds Global bond market $4.5 TRILLION $2 TRILLION $5 TRILLION $100 TRILLION Source: IFC, 2017 How much is out there? 28
- 30. PUBLIC & CONCESSIONAL FINANCING, INCLUDING SUB-SOVEREIGN • Public finance (incl. national development banks and domestic SWF) • MDBs and DFIs COMMERCIAL FINANCING PUBLIC AND CONCESSIONAL RESOURCES FOR RISK INSTRUMENTS & CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS • Guarantees • First Loss UPSTREAM REFORMS & MARKET FAILURES • Country and Sector Policies • Regulations and Pricing • Institutions and Capacity 3 4 2 Financing the SDGs: Private sector engagement needs to increase Can commercial financing be cost- effectively mobilized for sustainable investment? If not… Can upstream reforms be put in place to address market failures? If not… Can risk instruments & credit enhancements cost-effectively cover remaining risks? If not… Can development objectives be resolved with scarce public financing? 1 29
- 31. Implementing the SDGs: Invest in people, build resilience, and make growth inclusive INVESTING IN PEOPLE INVESTING IN INCLUSIVE GROWTH INVESTING IN RESILIENCE •Fragility & Conflict •Climate and weather shocks •Pandemics Sources: World Bank Group, 2017 •Early childhood development •Gender equality •Skills for jobs •Equal opportunities •Infrastructure •Roads •Energy •Sustainable •Greening growth •Water management •Private sector •Job creation 30
- 32. Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017 12 largest business themes in a world economy heading for the SDGs Implementing the SDGs: Opportunities for the private sector 31
- 33. The SDGs open up US$12 trillion of market opportunities in four economic systems: • These economic systems represent around 60 percent of the real economy and are critical to meeting the SDGs. • To capture these opportunities in full, businesses need to pursue social and environmental sustainability as avidly as they pursue market share and shareholder value. • If a critical mass of companies joins us in doing this now, they will become an unstoppable force. • If they don’t, the costs and uncertainty of unsustainable development could swell until there is no viable world in which to do business. Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017 Implementing the SDGs: Opportunities for the private sector 32
- 34. Implementation Happens at the Local Level 33
- 35. Source: Data calculations from local government statistics Many provinces outsize entire countries Number of provinces with a population over 5 million, by country Country Number of provinces China 30 India 20 Nigeria 12 Indonesia 12 Brazil 12 Egypt 8 Mexico 8 DRC 8 Bangladesh 7 Philippines 5 Myanmar 6 Ethiopia 5 South Africa 5 Russia 4 Iran 3 Kenya 3 Nepal 3 Russia 3 Turkey 2 Colombia 2 Sudan 2 Mozambique 2 Vietnam 2 Korea 2 Malawi 2 86 provinces have a population of over 10 million Country Number of provinces China 27 India 20 Indonesia 5 Brazil 6 Bangladesh 6 Philippines 3 Ethiopia 3 Nigeria 2 Mexico 2 Congo 2 Russia 1 Iran 1 Kenya 1 Turkey 1 S. Africa 1 Egypt 1 78 countries have a population of under 5 million 181 provinces have a population of over 5 million Number of provinces with a population over 10 million, by country 34
- 36. Revenue Sources For Local Governments TAX Property, Motor, Sales, etc. TOLLS Roads, Bridges, etc. CHARGES Bus Stations, Taxi Parks, etc. FEES Licensing, Facilities, Fines, etc. RENT Land, Buildings, Vehicles, etc. SURPLUSES from local commercial enterprises INTEREST on bank deposits or other funds Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Devas, Munawwar, and Simon 35
- 37. Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Morrell and Kopanyi Expenses on Delegated Functions 1.Preschool Education 2.Primary and Secondary School 3.Health Care 4.Social Assistance and Poverty Alleviation 5.Public Order and Civil Protection 6.Other Own Expenditures 1.Infrastructure and Public Services 2.Environment Protection, including waste 3.Social, Cultural, Recreational Expenditures 4.Local Economic Development 5.Social Housing 6.Urban Development 7.Civil Security 8.Transfers to Sub-local Government Entities 9.Subsidies, Grants, Equity, In-Kind 10. Loan Repayment 11. Interest Charges 12. Guarantees Called Sample Expenditure Plan 36
- 38. Implementation requires a multi- stakeholder approach The case of Colombia Source: Colombia’s Postconflict Implementation Plan, National Planning Department, March 2017 Every SDG requires a multi-stakeholder approach; responsibilities are non-excludable 37
- 39. Colombia and the SDGs Active national agendas determine actions related to at least 146 SDG targets - 86% Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation 38
- 40. Colombia and the SDGs Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation An Integrated Approach SDGPeace Agreement Comprehensive Rural Reform Political participation End of conflict Illicit drugs Victims of the Conflict 39
- 41. Mahmoud Mohieldin, SVP Thank You worldbankgroup.org/sdgs Follow us on twitter @WBG2030 Mahmoud-Mohieldin on 40
Editor's Notes
- Global growth: strongest since end-2010. Global growth picked up in 17Q2, reaching 3.6 percent (q/q saar), the strongest reading since 10Q4 (Figure 1A). :e uptick mainly reflects an acceleration of activity in the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan, continued robust growth in East Asia and Pacific, and strengthening growth in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Global manufacturing PMIs remained Grmly in expansionary territory in July and August, suggesting continued momentum in 17Q3. :e ongoing recovery in advanced economies and diminishing obstacles to activity among commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) continue to be key drivers of the pickup in global activity in 2017. Global median inflation edged up in July and August, reaching 2.4 percent, its highest level since March 2017.
- One of the most substantive aspects of the Forward Look discussion was the first step, the framing of the development landscape and challenges. In some measure this was the equivalent of an “SCD” for the globe. It asks, what has been driving the success or failure to reach the twin goals. [note: the graphic is supposed to denote a propeller powering positive progress] And looking back over the first fifteen years of the millennium, there have been some very positive drivers. These include: Increased trade and macro stability, as a result of a relatively strong policy consensus in support of “globalization” This has been helped along by positive demographics during that period, where dependency ratios, or the share of workers to non-workers, was quite favorable in many parts of the developing world, and not TOO unfavorable in the Part 1 countries. A strong global economic driver of a commodity boom, with China leading the charge, that led to real economic progress in emerging markets And the third fin of this propeller has been progress to grow the global middle class, as people in emerging markets shifted from subsistence agriculture to urban manufacturing, making goods to be sold through integrated global supply chains to be sold, mostly to rich countries. All of this had very salutary effects, setting a momentum for our twin goals of eliminating poverty and promoting shared prosperity.
- While it’s a bit simplistic to say that all of those nice conditions have completely reversed, particularly with some indications of positive economic global prospects even in the last few months, we can see how with a long-term perspective, that very positive set of drivers may be starting to sputter. Overall, we see increasing economic headwinds. The commodity supercycle that has driven economic growth over the last 70 years, first in Europe and then increasingly in emerging markets, seems to have become less positive, the prime indicator of which is oil prices (though that story has both supply and demand elements that are much more complicated). As China faces shifting demographics of an aging population and a move from production and savings to a more consumption based model, it adjusts to slower growth. And finally, particularly with recent populist political movements in the UK and US, we see diminished capital and trade flows, or at least possibilities that they will diminish. All of these are indicative of more difficult global economic trends overall. And when we look at the internal situations of many of our client (and traditional donor) member countries, we see some worrying internal vulnerabilities, including fiscal pressures, slow growth, high debt levels , and thin policy buffers that allow little room to address shocks or new challenges.
- To summarize the challenges to global development that we as an institution need to work with, it’s worth talking about some of the Global Megatrends we need to address and the challenges AND opportunities they present. These are naturally all interrelated. Demographic transitions as a megatrend across the world: There’s not a simple story here, but for much of the world, including the emerging markets, we are dealing with an aging population, where dependency ratios will grow, health care and social insurance burdens will increase, and the portion of the population that is energetic, full of new ideas and expectations, and working will diminish. Exceptions Africa and South Asia: both have incredibly young populations, that pose other challenges, as these youth bulges need to be aggressively managed. Urbanization is a megatrend we need to keep track of, as the last generation of youth and the emerging youth move from country-side to urban areas. Not as much the “migration story” of people moving to cities, but as population gets more dense, its more of the “cities coming to people” as what were once small towns become dense cities. As an example, Even during my time in Indonesia…. Climate and resources. Climate change as a defining feature and challenge of this century, as COP21 Paris accords pointed out. Need to figure out how to make sustainable development decisions Greater disruptions. Along with climate change and our global financial, economic and information connectivity, there is potential for greater disruption That disruption also reaches more countries and has higher impact than previously Shifts in the global economy. As we deal with the “end of the commodity supercycle”, the demographic shifts we described earlier, and the need to remain competitive with global supply chains, the development challenges become more complicated and acute. All of these megatrends have implications for the development challenges that the World Bank needs to help our clients face. None of these relationships between trends and challenges are a simple one to one correspondence, for we need to deal with all of the challenges simultaneously.
- Estimates for the developing world indicate that the targets for extreme poverty reduction (MDG 1.a), access to safe drinking water (MDG 7.c) and improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers (MDG 7.d) have been reached ahead of the 2015 deadline (figure 1). The targets on gender equality in primary and secondary education (MDG 3.a) and the incidence of malaria (MDG 6.c) can be met by 2015. Note that gender disparity in primary education was met in 2010. On the other hand, progress on the remaining MDGs has been lagging, especially for education and health-related MDGs. Specifically, the primary school completion rate reached 90 percent by 2012, but progress is off track to meet the target of a universal completion rate by 2015. Progress toward MDGs related to infant, child, maternal mortality (MDGs 4a and 5a), and access to basic sanitation (MDG 7c), is lagging, and these goals are unlikely to be achieved. The heterogeneity of outcomes at the country level translates into stark differences in progress towards the MDGs at the regional level. At one end of the spectrum, the East Asia and Pacific region is estimated to have met all of the MDGs, while at the other end Sub-Saharan Africa is off target on most of its MDGs. The regions still lagging, in particular South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, started from positions that required the most improvement, however, and they have made significant progress in absolute terms, particularly on the health MDGs that the world as a whole is struggling to meet. The relative nature by which many of the MDGs are defined tends to mask significant accomplishments in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
- 29 countries have 0 poverty data points; 28 countries have just 1 poverty data point; and 20 countries have just 2 poverty data points of more than 5 years apart.
- The World Bank has a long history of promoting data. The World Development Indicators database began as a statistical appendix to the 1978 World Development Report (added at President Robert S. McNamara’s urging, almost as an afterthought). Today, according to a recent external evaluation, the WDI is “the most widely used knowledge product of the World Bank” with 14 million unique visitors per year and, thanks to the World Bank’s Open Data initiative, its data are freely accessible to all. In combination with other global data sources, this will help policy makers understand global and national progress towards the SDGs, and where efforts need to be directed. (The WBG monitoring database for the SDGs is data.worldbank.org/sdgs) On Supporting client country data production, dissemination, and use: Today, a simple Internet search gives people access to the relevant World Development Indicators in milliseconds, and more than 1,000 household surveys from 159 countries—more than 2 million randomly sampled households representing 87 percent of the developing world’s population—that form the basis of global poverty estimates. This truly a quantum leap in data availability from where we stood 25 years ago. Like many of its partners in improving development data, improvements in data availability require efforts to improve the national governments management of its data ecosystem in concert with targeted support for specific statistical products. On the former, system-wide strategies have been the operational backbone of the World Bank’s statistical capacity building. 58 of 77 IDA countries have implemented such strategies, are now designing one, or are awaiting the implementation. An additional 14 countries are in the process of planning a strategy. On the latter, the WBG is committed to helping all IDA countries to conduct multi-topic household surveys every three years, to help assess whether people’s lives are improving. When the SDGs were agreed, 77 countries lacked enough data from surveys to be able to monitor trends in the very first target, eradicating extreme poverty everywhere. We have provided financing of technical assistance to 60 countries on their household survey program, including 46 IDA countries - in 2016, 7 IDA countries conducted a survey that measures poverty. Through our regular operational programs, we are also supporting eight countries to implement improved Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems – crucial if we are to ensure no one is left behind. To deliver the data we need for development, the Bank will pay special attention to 3 areas while working with others, producing data, and supporting country efforts to produce and use data: Explore innovative approaches: The World Bank Group has responded to the call for a new funding stream to support innovations for data production, analysis, and use, in collaboration with the new Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data. The goal is to catalyze innovations in technologies and approaches, where needs are closely linked to the SDGs and where techniques can be readily adapted to other regions and sectors. Among the first round of 20 funded projects included Smart Water Monitoring and Alert with Rainfall Measurement from Telecommunications Networks in Cameroon and Morocco, Wetlands Monitoring with Earth Observation Data in Uganda, and Advancing Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems in the Service of Syrian Refugees. This year, we opened a new round to source innovative projects to protect the environment and ‘Leave No One Behind’. Disaggregated Data matters: For the SDGs, disaggregated data is not only needed to better track development, but to better design and deliver the policies and services which will improve people’s lives. UN Member States have pledged to “leave no one behind” and in our work, the World Bank recognizes that not only are certain groups excluded entirely from data, but many aggregate data and statistics in use mask what’s happening at the individual level and among groups of the most vulnerable. In general, we see that policies are becoming more targeted, governments around the world are aiming for more granular policy making, which means more disaggregated and granular data is needed both for planning and monitoring. For example, an estimated 1.1 billion people in the world are unable to prove their identity. That is 1 in every 7 individuals. The majority live in Africa and Asia, and more than a third are under the age of 18. The World Bank Group’s Identification for Development (ID4D) initiative plays an essential role in helping countries move forward to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and leave no one behind.