This document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indonesian agriculture and food security. It provides context on Indonesia's development and agriculture sector, then analyzes how climate change may negatively affect agricultural production and food availability based on climate modeling scenarios. The document outlines Indonesia's national policies around climate change mitigation and adaptation for the agriculture sector. These include mainstreaming climate change into development planning, establishing a climate change roadmap, and sectoral plans to reduce emissions and increase resilience of food production.

1. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
INDONESIAN FOOD SECURITY
AND CLIMATE CHANGE :
LOOKING INTO THE FUTURES
NONO RUSONO & SETYAWATI
Ministry of National Development Planning/
National Development Planning Agency
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security
6-8 November 2011, Beijing China 1

2. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
OUTLINE
1. Indonesian Development
2. Agriculture Overview
3. Climate Change Impacts on
Agriculture
4. Indonesia’s Policies on
Climate Change
2

3. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT
BAPPENAS
o Land area : 1.9 million km2 , Marine area : 5.8 million km2
o Population : 239 millions in 2010, with growth rate +1%
o 58 percent people live in rural areas
o Population density was 125 per people per km2 in 2007

4. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT
BAPPENAS
Realized 2010 Realized 2011 Projection 2012 Projection 2013 Projection 2014
Economic growth 6,1% 6,4 % 6,5%-6,9% 6,7%-7,4% 7,0%-7,7%
Unemployment 7,1% 7,0 % 6,4%-6,6% 6,0%-6,6% 5%-6%
Poverty (National 13,3% 12,5% 10,5%-11.5% 9,5%-10,5% 8%-10%
Poverty Line)
Source: Medium Term Development Plan
Poverty (percent below US$2 per day)

5. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
AGRICULTURE OVERVIEW
 Agriculture sector has a vital role in Indonesia’s
development in economic, social and
environmental aspects
 In 2010, agriculture (including forestry and
fisheries) contributed 13.2 percent of  GDP
contribution of agriculture to GDP tends to decline
 Agriculture sector also has contributed to national
exports, primarily through the export of palm oil,
cocoa, coffee, and coconuts
 43 million people employed in agricultural sector
 Agricultural land-use has a function in maintaining
our life-support system

6. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
Per capita GDP (constant 2000 US$) and share of GDP
from agriculture
Agriculture sector’s GDP, 2004-2010
(%)
Fisheries,
15.8
Forestry, 6.2
Food crop,
Livestock, 49.7
12,6
Tree crop,
15.7
Food crop contributes almost 50 percent to
agricultural GDP.
Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2009)
Source: BPS
6

7. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
CONDITION AND CHALLENGES
BAPPENAS
CHALLENGES
1. Increasing number of population
2. World price  fluctuation
2010 TARGET
2011 3. Climate change  decreased food
COMPONENT REALIZATI
TARGET production
ON
4. Land conversion/Land use
Main Food Production
change, degradation, condition of
• Paddy (million ton) 66,9 66,4 70,6 agricultural infrastructure
• Maize (million ton) 19,8 18,40 22,00 5. Import (maize, soybean, meat,
• Soybean (million ton) 1.300 908,1 1.600 sugar, wheat, milk)
• Sugar (million ton) 3,0 2,7 3,9
• Beef (thousand ton) 412 435,2 439
• Fisheries (million ton) 10,83 12,26
• FOOD SECURITY AS ONE OF
GDP growth (%) 3,6-3,7 2,9 3,7
NATIONAL PRIORITIES
Source: Annual Government Work Plan
• INCREASING FOOD PRODUCTION TO
MEET DEMAND
7

8. Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010)
KEMENTERIAN PPN/
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
BAPPENAS
Harvest area of leading agricultural
commodities, average of 2006-2008
Area
Ran
Crop % of total harvested
k
(000 hectares)
1 Rice, paddy 34.50% 12,081
2 Oil palm fruit 13.00% 4,550
3 Maize 10.50% 3,660 Consumption of leading food commodities,
4 Coconuts 8.10% 2,833 average of 2003-2006
5 Natural rubber 8.00% 2,800 Food
6 Cassava 3.40% 1,207 Rank Crop % of total consumption
7 Coffee, green 2.80% 976 (000 mt)
8 Cocoa beans 2.70% 940 1 Rice (Milled Eq.) 30.70% 27,889
9 Groundnuts, with shell 1.90% 668 2 Cassava 10.00% 9,056
10 Soybeans 1.60% 544 3 Vegetables, Other 7.10% 6,469
Total 100.00% 35,021 4 Fruits, Other 6.90% 6,255
5 Maize 6.60% 6,044
Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010) 6 Coconuts - Incl Copra 6.00% 5,466
7 Wheat 4.80% 4,340
8 Bananas 4.70% 4,233
9 Sugar (Raw Eq) 3.70% 3,355
8 Total 100.00% 90,893

9. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
9

10. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
SCENARIOS
The IMPACT model
Category Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
GDP, constant Lowest of the four GDP growth Based on rates from World Highest of the four GDP
2000 US$ rate scenarios from the Bank EACC study (Margulis growth rates from the
Millennium Ecosystem 2010), updated for Sub- Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment GDP scenarios Saharan Africa and South Assessment GDP
(Millennium Ecosystem Asian countries scenarios and the rate
Assessment 2005)and the rate used in the baseline
used in the baseline (next (previous column)
column)
Population UN High variant, 2008 revision
UN medium variant, 2008 UN low variant, 2008
revision revision
Climate model the CSIRO and the MIROC GCMs with the A1B and the B1 scenarios
10

11. Changes in Precipitation under Climate Model

12. Changes in Annual Maximum Temperature
under Climate Model
12

13. Production Yield Area
Net export Price
IFPRI’S calculation

14. SCENARIO OUTCOMES FOR MAIZE
Production Yield Area
Net export Price
IFPRI’S calculation

15. Production Yield Area
Net export Price
IFPRI’S calculation

16. Production Yield Area
Net export Price
IFPRI’s calculation

17. Production Yield Area
Net export Price
IFPRI’s calculation

18. Production Yield Area
Net export Price
IFPRI’s calculation

19. SCENARIO OUTCOMES ON HUMAN BEING
KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
INDICATORS
Average daily kilocalories availability Number of malnourished children
(kilocalories per person per day) under 5 years of age
Source: Based on IMPACT results of July 2011
19

20. IFPRI’s calculation
20

21. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
4. INDONESIA’S POLICIES ON
CLIMATE CHANGE
21
http:// www.triplepundit.com

22. Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0. (World Resource Institute 2011)
KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
GHG Emission in Indonesia
 Climate change is give impacts on
agriculture, agricultural sector also
contributes to the increase of GHG
emission
 The current GHG emissions are
dominated by land-use change
emissions, including forest degradation
and peat fires
 Contribute to Emission from Land Use
Change : Forest fires/deforestation,
Agriculture (Especially estate crops), Ex:
Oil Palm and sugar; Livestock
Source : WRI, 2011
22

23. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
National Policies on Climate Change
BAPPENAS
THERE IS A NEED TO FILL THE GAP AND TO CALL FOR
SECTORAL POLICY INTEGRATION
Mainstreaming Climate Change into Medium
Term Development Planning
Formulate Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral
Roadmap (ICCSR)
Formulate NAP GHG emission reduction (RAN
GRK).
Established ICCTF to coordinate international
support on Indonesia’s climate change policy
and program.
Adaptation Policies (on progress)
23

24. The Overall Framework
KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
1. Indonesia Climate Change
Nine Sectors of Climate
Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR)
will support the GOI’s
Change Roadmap :
development vision
related to climate change
for the next 20 years Mitigation Adaptation
• Energy • Agriculture
• Forestry • Marine and Fishery
• Industry • Water Resources
• Transportation • Health
2. The implementation of • Waste Management
the Roadmap will be
through National
Development Plan: period
2010 – 2014.
Process :
3. RAN GRK elaborates
Indonesia’s commitment
to reduce carbon Sectoral Local (RAD
emission by 26 percent RAN GRK
from business as usual by Plan GRK)
2020
24

25. The National Action Plan of
KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
GHG emission reduction (RAN GRK)
GRK)
1. Allocate reduction of emission in 5 main sectors by
2020
Reduction Target (Gton CO2e)
Sector
26% 41%
Forestry and Peatland 0.672 1.039
Agriculture 0.008 0.011
Energy and Transportation 0.036 0.056
Industry 0.001 0.005
Waste 0.048 0.078
Total 0.767 1.189
2. Identification of sectoral program and estimation of
government budget
25

26. Mitigation and Adaptation Actions for
KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS Emission Reduction
MITIGATION
o Introducing new crop varieties with low emission. This includes increasing research
and technology to develop the varieties.
o Prevent land burning
o Improving fertilizer application techniques to reduce emission, such as utilizing
organic fertilizer
o Improving crop land management to increase soil carbon storage
ADAPTATION
o Increasing the production and productivity of main food and promoting
diversification on commodity consumption.
o Developing new varieties that resist to a range of environment such as drought and
heat
o Developing adaptive agriculture technology, including developing soil management
technology
o Improving water management including irrigation system to reduce water usage and
water leakage, Improving management of crop residue
o Building farmers and authorities capacity
o Developing crop weather insurance for farmers to increase farmer’s resilience from
climate change effects 26

27. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
CONCLUSION
o Based on the analysis, climate change puts stresses on
agricultural state and effect food security. The results show
that Indonesia’s crop yield, production and prices will be
affected.
o Adaptation and mitigation policy recommendation:
o Promote integration and coordination among stakeholders to
consistently implement the national climate change policies.
o Build synergies of mitigation and adaptation measures into
sustainable development plans.
o Increase research, technology, infrastructure investment on
agriculture to meet the future demand and maintain food
security.
o Build human resources capacity to deal with climate change.
27

28. KEMENTERIAN PPN/
BAPPENAS
THANK YOU
28