In this presentation, Ray Bollman explores the demographic trends of rural Ontario.

1. 1
Rural Development is Getting Harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
Presentation to the session on
Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks
Ontario East Municipal Conference
September 10, 2014
Kingston
Ray D. Bollman
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

2. The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer
potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population
decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants
in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
• the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June,
2013; and
• Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic
Region since September, 2005
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
2

3. Rural Development is getting harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• Components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
– International immigration
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 3
Generally, migration is the
largest component of
population change across
non-metro Ontario

4. Potential labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) up to 2025
due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants
per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, ONTARIO
Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent
of potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 4
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Historical data
L: Low growth
Medium1 1981-
2008 trends
Medium2 2006-
2008 trends
Medium3 1988-
1996 trends
Medium4 2001-
2006 trends
High growth
A1 replacement
fertility
A2 zero
immigration
A3 1%
immigration
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.

5. Demographic replacement of working age population
fell below 100% in 2009, non-metro Ontario
Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)
as a percent of number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 5
250
200
150
100
50
0
Metro
Non-metro
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
* Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro.
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.

6. Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by demographic
replacement of working age population, 2013
Number of potential labour market entrants
(10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of the
number of potential labour market retirees
(55 to 64 years of age)
Ottawa 95
Prescott & Russell 86
Frontenac 79
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 78
Hastings 77
Renfrew 75
Lennox & Addington 74
Leeds & Grenville 71
Lanark 70
Peterborough 69
Northumberland 67
Kawartha Lakes 65
Prince Edward 54
Haliburton 41
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 951-0062.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 6

7. Rural Development is getting harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• This implies labour market growth only from:
• Net in-migration from elsewhere in
Canada; or
• International immigration
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 7

8. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
– International immigration
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 8

9. Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by percent change in total population
from 2012 to 2013
1996
to
1997
1997
to
1998
1998
to
1999
Percent change in total population
1999
to
2000
2000
to
2001
2001
to
2002
2002
to
2003
2003
to
2004
2004
to
2005
2005
to
2006
2006
to
2007
2007
to
2008
2008
to
2009
2009
to
2010
2010
to
2011
2011
to
2012
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 9
2012
to
2013
Census Division name
Census
Division
ID
3546 Haliburton 0.0 - 0.3 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.1 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.0 1.9
3511 Lennox & Addington 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 - 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.8 1.7
3506 Ottawa 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1
3502 Prescott & Russell 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8
3516 Kawartha Lakes 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.7 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 0.8 - 0.3 - 0.1 0.7 0.6
3514 Northumberland 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6
3510 Frontenac 0.0 - 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2
3515 Peterborough 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1
3507 Leeds & Grenville 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.4 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 0.0
3509 Lanark 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
3501 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry - 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 - 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.2 0.0 - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1
3547 Renfrew 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.2 0.0 - 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.1
3512 Hastings 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2
3513 Prince Edward 0.4 - 0.2 0.8 0.3 - 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 - 0.7 - 0.9 - 0.4 0.0 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.8 -0.9
Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables051-0052.

10. Haliburton, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 10
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

11. Lennox and Addington, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 11
45,000
44,000
43,000
42,000
41,000
40,000
39,000
38,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

12. Ottawa, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 12
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
Total population
19961997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062007 2008 20092010 2011 20122013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

13. Prescott and Russell, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 13
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

14. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 14
78,000
76,000
74,000
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

15. Northumberland, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 15
86,000
84,000
82,000
80,000
78,000
76,000
74,000
72,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

16. Frontenac, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 16
160,000
155,000
150,000
145,000
140,000
135,000
130,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

17. Peterborough, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 17
140,000
138,000
136,000
134,000
132,000
130,000
128,000
126,000
124,000
122,000
120,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

18. Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 18
103,000
102,000
101,000
100,000
99,000
98,000
97,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

19. Lanark, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 19
68,000
67,000
66,000
65,000
64,000
63,000
62,000
61,000
60,000
59,000
58,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

20. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 20
117,000
116,000
115,000
114,000
113,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

21. Renfrew, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 21
105,000
104,000
103,000
102,000
101,000
100,000
99,000
98,000
97,000
96,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

22. Hastings, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 22
140,000
138,000
136,000
134,000
132,000
130,000
128,000
126,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

23. Prince Edward, Ontario
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 23
27,000
26,000
25,000
24,000
Total population
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

24. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 24

25. Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario
ranked by Natural Balance (births minus
deaths) as a percent of population, 2013
Ottawa 0.48
Prescott & Russell 0.26
Frontenac 0.07
Renfrew 0.04
Hastings 0.00
Lanark -0.06
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry -0.11
Peterborough -0.11
Lennox & Addington -0.13
Leeds & Grenville -0.25
Kawartha Lakes -0.26
Northumberland -0.33
Haliburton -0.48
Prince Edward -0.48
Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic
Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 25

26. Ottawa, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 26
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

27. Prescott and Russell, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 27
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

28. Frontenac, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 28
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

29. Renfrew, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 29
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

30. Hastings, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 30
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

31. Lanark, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 31
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

32. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 32
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

33. Peterborough, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 33
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

34. Lennox and Addington, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 34
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

35. Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 35
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

36. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 36
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

37. Northumberland, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 37
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

38. Haliburton, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 38
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

39. Prince Edward, Ontario
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 39
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

40. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 40

41. Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) sorted by net internal
migration (i.e. migration within Canada) (July 1, 2011 to June
30, 2012) as a percent of total population
Total
migration
into CD
Total
migration
out of CD
Net migration
with other
CDs
As percent
of total
population
3546 Haliburton 1,163 734 429 2.47
3511 Lennox & Addington 2,812 2,052 760 1.77
3514 Northumberland 3,547 2,738 809 0.96
3516 Kawartha Lakes 3,817 3,113 704 0.94
3502 Prescott & Russell 4,000 3,493 507 0.58
3507 Leeds & Grenville 4,062 3,684 378 0.37
3509 Lanark 3,049 2,902 147 0.22
3510 Frontenac 7,323 6,998 325 0.21
3515 Peterborough 5,129 4,849 280 0.20
3506 Ottawa 26,663 25,254 1,409 0.15
3501 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 3,189 3,114 75 0.06
3547 Renfrew 4,219 4,251 -32 -0.03
3512 Hastings 5,944 6,143 -199 -0.14
3513 Prince Edward 1,327 1,392 -65 -0.25
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables 051-0062, 051-0063 and 051-0064.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 41

42. Haliburton, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 42
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
-3.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

43. Lennox and Addington, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 43
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

44. Northumberland, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 44
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

45. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 45
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

46. Prescott and Russell, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 46
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

47. Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 47
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

48. Lanark, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 48
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

49. Frontenac, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 49
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

50. Peterborough, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

51. Ottawa, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 51
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

52. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 52
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

53. Renfrew, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 53
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

54. Hastings, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 54
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

55. Prince Edward, Ontario
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 55
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

56. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Prince Edward Census Division:
• Largest % decline in total population in 2013
• Largest % decline due to net migration in 2013
• Here we look at net migration of youth for the three
census divisions with the largest % decline in
population in 2013:
• Prince Edward -0.9%, Hastings -0.2%, Renfrew -0.1%
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 56

57. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 57
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1
t=1
Population
15 to 19 in
1996
Population
15 to 19 in
1997
Population
15 to 19 in
1998

58. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 58
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1
t=5
Population
20 to 24 in
2001
Population
20 to 24 in
2004
GAP = net decline
from 2001 to 2006

59. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 59
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

60. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 60
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

61. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 61
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

62. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 62
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

63. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 63
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

64. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 64
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

65. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 65
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

66. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 66
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

67. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 67
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

68. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 68
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
-2,500
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

69. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 69
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
-2,500
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1

70. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 70
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
-2,500
1996
to
2001
1997
to
2002
1998
to
2003
1999
to
2004
2000
to
2005
2001
to
2006
2002
to
2007
2003
to
2008
2004
to
2009
2005
to
2010
2006
to
2011
2007
to
2012
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number
t=1
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division

71. The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer
potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population
decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants
in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
• the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June,
2013; and
• Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic
Region since September, 2005
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
71

72. Ontario's non-metro employment was 1.24 million in
June, 2014 -- the same level as November, 2003
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 72
1,350
1,300
1,250
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number employed (,000)
(15 years of age and over)
(using a 12-month moving average)
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Tables 282-0001 and 282-0111.

73. Economic Regions
3510 Ottawa (and area) Economic Region:
• includes Census Divisions:
• 01 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties,
• 02 Prescott and Russell United Counties,
• 06 Ottawa Division
• 07 Leeds and Grenville United Counties ,and
• 09 Lanark County.
3515 Kingston – Pembroke Economic Region:
• Includes Census Divisions:
• 10 Frontenac Management board,
• 11 Lennox and Addington County,
• 12 Hastings County,
• 13 Prince Edward Division, and
• 47 Renfrew County.
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 73

74. Number employed in Ontario's
Ottawa (and area) Economic Region
Number employed (,000)
(12-month moving average)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 74
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
June, 2012

75. Number employed in Ontario's
Kingston - Pembroke Economic Region
Number employed (,000)
(12-month moving average)
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 75
250
225
200
175
150
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
September, 2005

76. The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer
potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population
decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants
in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
• the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June,
2013; and
• Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic
Region since September, 2005
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
76

77. 77
Rural Development is Getting Harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
Presentation to the session on
Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks
Ontario East Municipal Conference
September 10, 2014
Kingston
Ray D. Bollman
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
Questions /
Discussion