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Where next for Plan S?

Rob Johnson of Research Consulting casts his expert eye over the implications of Plan S for those in academia and independent publishing, and explores what they might do to respond

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Where next for Plan S?

  1. 1. Where next for Plan S? Rob Johnson, Research Consulting 2 May 2019 The IPG Spring Conference 1 @rschrobUK
  2. 2. Where next for Plan S? 1. Publishing as a complex system 2. Plan S - a Simple solution? 3. Hope for the best, plan for the worst 2
  3. 3. 1. Publishing as a complex system 3
  4. 4. What do we mean by complexity? Source: Bowman et al 2015 Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence 4 Systemic Path- dependent Sensitive to context Emergent Episodic
  5. 5. Are we ‘locked-in’...? 5 Firm becomes successful Temporarily cuts prices to remove competition Increases popularity by advertising Influences economic trends and societal norms Becomes too large to govern Increasing power and consolidation of the market
  6. 6. Percentage of papers published by the top 6 publishers 1973-2013 6 Lariviére et al. 2015
  7. 7. ... Or at a tipping point? 7 Image: Pixabay CC0
  8. 8. Proportions of open access content – 1975-2018 Courtesy of Eric Archambault (Science-Metrix) (Figure courtesy of Eric Archambault)
  9. 9. Preprint posting is increasing 9 Source: http://www.prepubmed.org/monthly_stats/ - December 2018 data Year Number of preprints posted
  10. 10. Big Deal Cancellations 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Year Number of cancellations Source: https://sparcopen.org/our-work/big-deal-cancellation-tracking/- SPARC
  11. 11. 2. Plan S for Simple? 11
  12. 12. Plan S 12 Image: cOAlition S CC0
  13. 13. 13
  14. 14. 14 Images: Pixabay CC0
  15. 15. Image: Fabio Berti / Shutterstock
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. 17
  18. 18. Feedback on Plan S Clear support for the transition to open access. Source: Lisa Hinchcliffe “Taking Stock of the Feedback on Plan S Implementation Guidance“ - https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2019/02/11/with-thousand-of-pages-of-feedback-on-the-plans-s-implementation-guidance- what-themes-emerged-that-might-guide-next-steps/ 18 Guidance might work for STEM but will negatively impact HSS scholars. Technical requirements are poorly thought out. Concern for viability of small, independent, and society publishers. It is likely impossible to set a fair and reasonable APC. Scholars and organizations in the Global South object to being told what they want. Timelines are not feasible.
  19. 19. Implementation timeline 19 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1 Jan 2020 - Policies come into effect – for new calls, grants OR ongoing grants
  20. 20. 3. Hope for the best, plan for the worst 20
  21. 21. Equity - participatory governance and conflict-resolution mechanisms Efficiency - joined-up thinking that recognizes the inter-connected nature of research and publishing Sustainability - monitoring and feedback mechanisms 21 What can we hope for?
  22. 22. The law of excess diversity 22 ‘The long-term survival of a system requires more internal diversity than appears requisite at any time’ Image: Pixabay CC0 Quote – Allen, P. (2001), ‘ A complex systems approach to learning in adaptive systems’. International Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 149-80
  23. 23. What should we plan for? • No movement on the principle of ‘full and immediate access’ • Emphasis on cost transparency rather than price caps? • Increasingly polycentric approach? • Exceptions as a means of ‘squaring the circle’? 23
  24. 24. Expansion + dilution? 24
  25. 25. Variable publisher impact • More than 3,500 publishers have no Plan S-funded papers in Web of Science at all • Of >10,000 journals in WoS, only 3,700 had 6 or more Plan S-funded papers • No publisher has more than 30% of their papers Plan S-funded Source: ISI (2019) The Plan S footprint https://clarivate.com/g/plan-s-footprint/ 25
  26. 26. Gold or Green OA? Source: https://client.cntv.at/egu2019/gdb5 26 Plan S is NOT all about gold open access!!David Sweeney – Executive Chair of Research England and Co-Chair of Plan S Implementation Task Force
  27. 27. Compliance routes Source: Bosman & Kramer (2018) tinyurl.com/nine-routes 27
  28. 28. What about China? Source:OA2020 Mainland China Signatory Libraries Discussed a Response To Plan S Guidance on Implementation http://english.las.cas.cn/ns/ne/201904/t20190402_207494.html 28 Chinese authorities and libraries have indicated their support for the majority of Plan S principles – but full implications are unclear… “We believe the transition process can be realized within the framework of currently available resources. We see no legitimate reasons for, and will object to, any attempts to increase spending from the original subscribing institutions in the transformation.” (Mainland China Signature Libraries, April 2019)
  29. 29. What about monographs? “cOAlition S will, at a later stage, issue guidance on Open Access monographs and book chapters.” (cOAlition S Guidance, Nov 2018) 29
  30. 30. “If we think that the world is not entirely predictable, we would still plan - but review the outcomes of the plan more frequently” Quote: Bowman et al 2015 Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence Hope for the best, plan for the worst
  31. 31. rob.johnson@research-consulting.com @rschrobUK www.research-consulting.com 31 Shifting Relationship Dynamics and Imbalances in an OA world (The Scholarly Kitchen) https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2019/04/03/guest-post-rob- johnson-on-shifting-relationship-dynamics-and-imbalances-in- an-open-access-world/ From coalition to commons: Plan S and the future of scholarly communication (UKSG Insights) https://insights.uksg.org/articles/10.1629/uksg.453/ More information…