A changing climate will make the conservation of marine biodiversity increasingly difficult as policies designed for current climatic conditions may not reflect those in the future. Larval dispersal and movements among populations is a crucial factor in planning networks of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) as it greatly affects population persistence and recovery. I will present some of my work quantifying larval behavior in the laboratory, to using a biophysical larval dispersal model (ROMS/LTRANS, etc) to identify patterns of larval connectivity in the present and future climate scenarios. Identifying mechanisms that drive larval dispersal and connectivity, quantifying their sensitivity to climate change, and incorporating this into planning strategies are key to developing networks of MPAs which have sound design principles that consider population connectivity and are more robust to the effects of climate change.

1. Optimizing Marine Protected Area
Networks: The effects of climate change on
larval dispersal and connectivity
Rémi Daigle
@RemiDaigle

2. Outline:
● Background and motivation
● My PhD research:
○ Swimming behaviours vs invertebrate larval distribution
● Postdoctoral Research:
○ Evaluation of larval behaviour
○ Sea cucumber larval dispersal
○ MPA optimization
○ BEST-MPA
● Future Directions
● Discussion!

4. But the new Canadian Government is pretty awesome...
In the mandate letter from our PM to
DFO:
“Work with the Minister of Environment
and Climate Change to increase the
proportion of Canada’s marine and
coastal areas that are protected – to five
percent by 2017, and ten percent by 2020
– supported by new investments in
community consultation and science.”

5. Meeting deadlines VS ‘paper parks’

6. Convenvention on Biological Diversity
Guidelines in the CBD:
● Ecologically and biologically
significant areas
● Representativity
● Connectivity
● Replicated ecological features
● Adequate and viable sites
Grad-student Remi’s guidelines
● Connectivity
● Other stuff...

7. In the beginning...

8. Being small larvae in a big ocean
CURRENT
CURRENT

9. You just can’t put a GPS on larvae!

10. Vertical distribution vs Temperature
● Behaviour varies by species
● Observing behaviours enables
modelling!

11. Spatial co-localization

12. Patch size = tidal excursion

13. What is more important?
Bio-physical interactions:
● Larval swimming behaviours
● Planktonic larval duration
● Larval release site
● Timing

14. Larval dispersal can be modelled!

15. Physics > Biology (and that hurts me)

16. Enter: charismatic megafauna
Giant California sea cucumber

17. The ‘cucumber’ questions:
How does climate change affect larval dispersal?
● Dispersal distance?
● Degree of connectivity?
● Connectivity patterns
Identify “hotspots” of climate change sensitivity
● Limited to physical dispersal process

18. The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 2068-2077 (labelled 2098-2107)

19. The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 1968-1977
Series:
● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)

20. The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 1968-1977
Series:
● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)
● G: Habitat grid sites (daily: June-July)

21. The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 1968-1977
Series:
● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)
● G: Habitat grid sites (daily: June-July)
● S: seasonal grid sites (bi-weekly: Jan-Aug)

22. Biology wins!

23. Connectivity: Dispersal distance mapped

24. Connectivity: Connected nodes mapped

25. Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

26. Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

27. Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

28. Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

29. Descriptive summary
● Dispersal distance will be more affected by temperature than by flow regime
● Changes in flow regime will increase the level of population connectivity
● Hotspots:
○ Between southern Haida Gwaii - Mainland
○ West coast Vancouver Island
○ Maybe northern SOG

30. BCMCA
Ecological:
● Seabirds
● Fish
● Invertebrates
● Marine mammals
● Physical
● Plants

31. BCMCA
Human Use:
● Commercial fishing
● Sport Fishing
● Ocean energy
● Shipping
● Tenures
● Tourism & Recreation

32. MPA planning
Compare the effectiveness of MPA networks:
● Status quo
● Designed from human+ecological data from BCMCA MARXAN analysis
● BCMCA+connectivity layer
Include spatially variable connectivity information into MARXAN analysis

33. So what!? BEST-MPA

34. Good Planning = Economic Benefit!

35. Future work: Putting the multi- in multi-approach
● Does the genetic data support the biophysical model results? (Amanda Xuereb)
● Can we formulate theory that describes population persistence? (Ridouan Bani)
○ Negative covariance in connectivity = negative covariance in population fluctuations
● Can we include connectivity in a meaningful way into MPA planning
(MARXAN)? (Cassidy D’Aloia)
● Expand connectivity coverage for Atlantic Canada, and complete BEST-MPA case
study in BC (me)

36. Questions/Discussion
Focus on physical aspects of connectivity appropriate?
How to measure ‘success’ of connectivity?
Should MPA’s be climate refugia, or pathways to cooler climates?
How can (Canadian) scientist best position their science to provide useful advice?