1.
Optimizing Marine Protected Area
Networks: The effects of climate change on
larval dispersal and connectivity
Rémi Daigle
@RemiDaigle

2.
Outline:
● Background and motivation
● My PhD research:
○ Swimming behaviours vs invertebrate larval distribution
● Postdoctoral Research:
○ Evaluation of larval behaviour
○ Sea cucumber larval dispersal
○ MPA optimization
○ BEST-MPA
● Future Directions
● Discussion!

3.
But the new Canadian Government is pretty awesome...
In the mandate letter from our PM to
DFO:
“Work with the Minister of Environment
and Climate Change to increase the
proportion of Canada’s marine and
coastal areas that are protected – to five
percent by 2017, and ten percent by 2020
– supported by new investments in
community consultation and science.”

4.
Meeting deadlines VS ‘paper parks’

5.
Convenvention on Biological Diversity
Guidelines in the CBD:
● Ecologically and biologically
significant areas
● Representativity
● Connectivity
● Replicated ecological features
● Adequate and viable sites
Grad-student Remi’s guidelines
● Connectivity
● Other stuff...

6.
In the beginning...

7.
Being small larvae in a big ocean
CURRENT
CURRENT

8.
You just can’t put a GPS on larvae!

9.
Vertical distribution vs Temperature
● Behaviour varies by species
● Observing behaviours enables
modelling!

10.
Spatial co-localization

11.
Patch size = tidal excursion

12.
What is more important?
Bio-physical interactions:
● Larval swimming behaviours
● Planktonic larval duration
● Larval release site
● Timing

13.
Larval dispersal can be modelled!

14.
Physics > Biology (and that hurts me)

15.
Enter: charismatic megafauna
Giant California sea cucumber

16.
The ‘cucumber’ questions:
How does climate change affect larval dispersal?
● Dispersal distance?
● Degree of connectivity?
● Connectivity patterns
Identify “hotspots” of climate change sensitivity
● Limited to physical dispersal process

17.
The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 2068-2077 (labelled 2098-2107)

18.
The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 1968-1977
Series:
● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)

19.
The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 1968-1977
Series:
● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)
● G: Habitat grid sites (daily: June-July)

20.
The physical model:
Covers entire BC coast and a bit of USA
Years:
● Present: 1998-2007
● Future: 1968-1977
Series:
● A: genetic sites (daily: June-July)
● G: Habitat grid sites (daily: June-July)
● S: seasonal grid sites (bi-weekly: Jan-Aug)

21.
Biology wins!

22.
Connectivity: Dispersal distance mapped

23.
Connectivity: Connected nodes mapped

24.
Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

25.
Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

26.
Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

27.
Connectivity: ‘infomap’ clustering

28.
Descriptive summary
● Dispersal distance will be more affected by temperature than by flow regime
● Changes in flow regime will increase the level of population connectivity
● Hotspots:
○ Between southern Haida Gwaii - Mainland
○ West coast Vancouver Island
○ Maybe northern SOG

29.
BCMCA
Ecological:
● Seabirds
● Fish
● Invertebrates
● Marine mammals
● Physical
● Plants

30.
BCMCA
Human Use:
● Commercial fishing
● Sport Fishing
● Ocean energy
● Shipping
● Tenures
● Tourism & Recreation

31.
MPA planning
Compare the effectiveness of MPA networks:
● Status quo
● Designed from human+ecological data from BCMCA MARXAN analysis
● BCMCA+connectivity layer
Include spatially variable connectivity information into MARXAN analysis

32.
So what!? BEST-MPA

33.
Good Planning = Economic Benefit!

34.
Future work: Putting the multi- in multi-approach
● Does the genetic data support the biophysical model results? (Amanda Xuereb)
● Can we formulate theory that describes population persistence? (Ridouan Bani)
○ Negative covariance in connectivity = negative covariance in population fluctuations
● Can we include connectivity in a meaningful way into MPA planning
(MARXAN)? (Cassidy D’Aloia)
● Expand connectivity coverage for Atlantic Canada, and complete BEST-MPA case
study in BC (me)

35.
Questions/Discussion
Focus on physical aspects of connectivity appropriate?
How to measure ‘success’ of connectivity?
Should MPA’s be climate refugia, or pathways to cooler climates?
How can (Canadian) scientist best position their science to provide useful advice?