Understanding Markets Through Social Learning and Independent Choice
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HERD Less is more
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Understanding Markets Through Social Learning and Independent Choice
- 1. Main Stage, November 3, 2011 HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy A Presenta*on from the Fes*val of NewMR Main Stage – November 3, 2011
- 2. HERD Less is more Source: Clark Little Mark Earls AKA @herdmeister Festival of New MR November 2011 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 3. q. are your markets shaped by independent or social choice? ...by what goes on between their ears or between them? Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"
- 4. ...it s self-evident that behaviour is shaped by what goes on between our ears Phil Barden, debate in Contagious Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"
- 5. a map built on data patterns social learning awfully nice chaps Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 6. the missing piece of the jigsaw Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 8. market-level patterns reveal what lies beneath (not vice-versa) traditional research insight here we start here Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 9. 9 ...Independent Choice? I discover and buy a product independently of my peers. Its superiority to other options and what I m already using is immediately clear. ...Copying others? I discover and buy a product through my peers.The product may not be clearly superior. Its social value may be greater. is your market shaped by... or 9 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 10. 1010 short-tail distribution long-tail distribution Very few items account for most of the market volume Large number of items have decent share of market volume compare and contrast Independent Copying Conversely, few have a very low share Many items in tail with small share Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 11. 11 a very simple way to plot markets rapid turnover of popularity short-tail distribution Independent long-tail distribution short-tail distribution Copying Popular music downloads Spirits Charitable giving Deodorants Car Insurance 11 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 12. 12 rapid turnover of popularity short-tail distribution Independent long-tail distribution short-tail distribution Copying Popular music downloads Charitable giving Car Insurance Spirits Deodorants 12 a very simple way to plot markets Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 13. 13 Copying Experts Copying Peers Guesswork Considered choice Independent Adapted from Bentley Earls O Brien I ll have what she s having MIT Press 2011 Few choices Many choices Copying
- 14. 14 Few choices Many choices CopyingIndependent 31 popular music downloads charitable giving auto Insurance deodorants Considered choice
- 15. 15 Few choices Many choices CopyingIndependent 31 plotting multiple markets/regions
- 16. 16 Few choices Many choices CopyingIndependent 31 Copying Experts Copying Peers Considered choice Guesswork what KIND of thing are you dealing with?
- 17. 17 . . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province. In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of Geography On Exactitude in Science [JL Borges] Source: Pedro Meyer Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 18. 18 Few choices Many choices CopyingIndependent 31 18 Yes* Maybe No No where is traditional research appropriate?
- 19. less really is more Source: Clark Little
- 20. 20 § 31Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 21. Q & A Mark Earls HERD Consultancy Ray Poynter Vision Critical Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
- 22. Main Stage, November 3, 2011 HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy A Presenta*on from the Fes*val of NewMR Main Stage – November 3, 2011