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Welcome to our
1st joint event on Private Equity
Luxembourg, 5th July 2016
1
“PE Investing: The Long Term Investor Journey”
❖ Agenda: WELCOME !
❖ Rajaa Mekouar: PE Back to Basics!
❖ Ian Prideaux: The Role of Private Equity Within a Long Term Portfolio !
❖ Surprise guest: The 7 deadly sins!
❖ Panel: Different ways to PE exposure: First hand feedback from experts!
❖ Jerome Wittamer: Conclusion !
❖ Cocktail: All invited to join to continue the debate around a drink/canape
2
This is NOT today’s topic
Brexit and PE
But you can ask the panelists later…!
!
Two of whom are actually mentioned in
the recent media stories quoted here.. !
!
!
!
3
Nota Bene…
Back to Basics…
Private Equity 101
(from my 15 years of first hand exposure to PE)
This presentation is for the
wealth manager, private
investor, asset manager who is
intrigued but not too familiar
with PE (Apologies to the more
experienced ones…)
4
Setting the mood…
Food for inspiration
With the current market
context of excessive liquidity
and central bank intervention,
private strategies make sense
as an “optionality”
5
23 July 2015
PE Today’s Big stats
Global Private
Capital*AuM
exceeds over
$4 trillion
Source: Preqin - Figures at June 2015 unless otherwise specified - * Includes Private Capital ie Private debt, Real Estate, Infra and Natural Resources!
Total capital
raised by 1,062
funds reached
$551bn (full
2015)
Total
unrealised
value stands
at $2.8trillion
$2.4 trillion AuM!
$288bn raised (689 funds)!
$189bn distribution!
$755bn dry powder (+9%)
$411bn deal value!
$416bn exit value!
(for the year 2015)
$136bn deal value!
$73bn exit value!
(for the year 2015)
6
PE is cyclical too…
PE’s journey through times
PE reached its peak in terms of
amounts raised pre 2008 crisis
and has sustained high activity
levels since - Funds are getting
fewer but raising more!
Source: ThomsonOne, 31.12.2015*!
*Includes other private capital strategies
7
PE has a wide base of investors
Who invests in PE?
Large institutions especially
Pension Funds and Sovereign
Wealth Funds are the
dominant force (close to 60%
of total investments)
8
Source: Preqin, 2014
$bn invested!
in PE by investor
type and as a % of
total AuM
Family Offices are relatively over allocated in PE v institutions
How much do they
invest in PE?
Family Offices are a growing
source of funding for PE in
general, with an increasing
proportion entering the asset
class across the world (US bias)
9
Source: iCapital, 2015
% allocation to PE
Time for Action…
Untangling the maze
Is PE an investment class for
you to consider? If so, why
and how?
10
❖ PE outperforms public markets (Illiquidity
premium + Alpha generation)!
❖ PE provides effective risk/return diversification
for a typical portfolio !
❖ PE is a great way of accessing differentiated
investment opportunities!
!
❖ Does PE require to stay “stuck” for 10 years?!
!
❖ PE seems for the high risk takers only!
!
❖ It seems PE is for the “very rich” investors with
large tickets to invest
PE: Perception v Reality
11
Understanding PE… (video)
How the “GP” does it by the European Association of PE/VC (Invest Europe)
12
PE encompasses different investment stages with different risk/return profiles
PE stages
LBOs remain the largest
segment in PE, but VC has
recently developed
substantially, in Europe and
elsewhere
13
€1-1m
€1m-100m
€20m-1b
€5m-1b+
€5m-1b+
Source: Goldman Sachs
10-year manager performance dispersion
PE performance driven
by quality of manager
PE outperforms all other asset classes but
only if the right managers are selected
14
Source: Hewitt EnnisKnupp’ eVestment Alliance,
Thomson Reuters, NCREIF, The Townsend Group, Hedge
Fund Research Inc (2013) - US
Dispersion of
returns
Annualised compound returns on Calpers’ 20 years returns
PE Economics
Management fees: 2% typically, for a PE/VC
fund, on committed capital (but varies)!
Carried interest: 20% on profits generated, 80%
to investors (also varies)!
Other considerations: !
Alignment of interests: Co investments,
Hurdle rate (most cases)!
Fund of Funds!
15
Source: State Street via Calpers
It is about long term investing….
PE “J curve”effect
Chart shows evolution of cash
in/out and cashflows in a
typical PE cycle
Commitments
Capital calls
Distributions
Net cumulative
cash flows
(US$m)
Source: Pictet
16
Commenting the “J Curve” effect
❖ Commitment drawdown and allocation: over time unlike with hedge funds!
❖ Net contributions (of distributions) rarely exceed 2/3 of committed capital !
❖ Key performance measures: !
❖ IRR* (Internal rate of return)!
❖ Multiples (without time factor) / TVPI** (Total value to paid-in capital)!
❖ DVPI (Distibuted to paid in capital)!
❖ Pre distribution, negative IRR* due to:!
❖ Impact of management fees!
❖ Conservative valuations (eg illiquidity discount / upside via realisation)!
❖ Ways to smooth the J Curve effect:!
❖ Fee reduction !
❖ Secondary investments (Trade off)
17
*The IRR is the discount rate that makes the net present value of all cash flows equal to zero!
**Total value to paid-in (TVPI) ratio represents the fund’s total value as a multiple of its cost basis. TVPI is calculated by dividing the realised amount added to the net asset value of unrealised investments by
the investment cost
The Investor Journey
Getting over the
hurdles
Addressing questions and
concerns…
18
19
Hurdle 1: Process
Sourcing Due diligence Timing
Different routes to investment in PE
Hurdle 2:
Structuring
Consider carefully the pros
and cons of each vehicle and
evaluate feasibility
20
Increasing risk and complexity
Hurdle 3: Decision making
21
Go-no Go: Evaluate your short and mid term liquidity needs
Decide the % allocation that brings you closest to “efficient frontier”!
Together with the investment stages that fit your risk/return profile!
Opt out of strategies that don't fit your risk/return profile
Add liquidity spin where/when possible
Maximise bargaining power !
Negotiate fees
Choose the optimal investment vehicle also based on your ticket size
!
!
!
!
TRUSTED!
!
!
!
Partners
Ongoing!
monitoring
Have we helped
clarify the PE picture?
Please reach out for questions!!!
!
Now more enlightening facts and
stories from our guest speaker…
22
Keynote Presentation
The Role of Private Equity
Within a Long Term Portfolio
Grosvenor Estate!
23
Ian Prideaux
Our Guest Speaker
CIO
24
❖ Ian is deploying money in assets other than real
estate, with a view to diversification over a
long term time horizon. He puts forward an
asset allocation plan and select the appropriate
managers for the different parts of that plan.!
❖ The investment portfolio includes public
equities and fixed income, private equity, hedge
funds, absolute return instruments, cash and
has in the past included commodities. !
❖ All assets are run by third party managers, with
assistance of Cambridge Associates as
investment consultants who also carry out
monitoring and performance reporting.
Who is it…
Grosvenor Estate
❖ International property business
Grosvenor Group Ltd!
❖ Direct investment business of the
Wheatsheaf Group !
❖ Family Investment Office which
supports the private interests of the
family of The Duke of Westminster and
associated family trusts.
25
Key advantages of private equity as an asset class in portfolios…
Well-selected private equity is a proven driver of portfolio growth
Private equity and venture capital has demonstrated long-term
outperformance of public equity markets as underlying investments are fully
realised
Cambridge Associates (CA) research shows that clients with high allocations
have outperformed those with smaller allocations over the longer term
Grosvenor’s private equity portfolio has already generated a premium of 3.6%
p.a. above public markets since inception (2006)
!
Improves diversification and ability to access strategies that are under-
represented by public markets
Access to developing and disruptive technologies, which are not available
through the public markets
Exposure to sectors, geographies and parts of the capital structure that are
not available through traditional markets
Low correlation with traditional asset classes and other alternative asset classes 26
…Key advantages of private equity as an asset class in portfolios
The outlook for private equity is challenging today but there are
more options for generating strong returns than ‘plain-vanilla’
buyouts.
Ability to generate outsized absolute returns due to inherent inefficiency
in how investments are sourced, capital is deployed, management is
reorganised and companies are operated
Capacity for skilled managers to make mid-long term decisions away
from the glare of the public markets and short term benchmarks
CA still expect premium returns (3-5% above public equity over the
long-term) for a diversified programme and net IRRs of 10-15%+ today
!
Excellent investment opportunities for long-term investors with
limited liquidity needs
A 15% allocation to PE & VC is average for large sophisticated,
internationally focused families, colleges and endowments
Grosvenor’s current allocation stands at around 11.2% on a ‘fully drawn’
basis
27
Private equity can help diversified portfolios earn better risk-adjusted returns
A private equity programme
containing exposure to all
sub-classes adds considerable
efficiency through greater
risk-adjusted returns
!
Improved efficiency results
in a tighter range of returns
over time (important in
managing annual payouts and
budgets)
!
The probability of
experiencing a return
shortfall is lower with the
diversified portfolio
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Returns are nominal and assume 3% inflation.
Source: Cambridge Associates
CLIENT XYZ
EFFICIENT REGION ANALYSIS
ASSET CLASSES ALLOCATIONS
Simple
Diversified
Portfolio
Without PI
Diversified
Portfolio With
PI
U.S. Equity 50.0% 30.0% 15.0%
Global ex U.S. Equity 20.0 20.0 15.0
Emerging Markets Equity - - - 6.0 6.0
Absolute Return - - - 6.0 8.0
Equity Hedge Funds - - - 10.0 12.0
Venture Capital - - - - - - 5.0
Private Equity - - - - - - 8.0
Commodities - - - 4.0 1.0
Natural Resource Equity - - - 3.0 - - -
REITs - - - 3.0 2.0
Real Estate - - - - - - 8.0
Oil & Gas - - - - - - 4.0
Timber - - - - - - 3.0
U.S. Fixed Income 30.0 12.0 8.0
U.S. TIPS - - - 3.0 2.0
Global Fixed Income - - - 3.0 2.0
High Yield Bonds - - - - - - 1.0
Nominal Arithmetic Return 8.8% 9.1% 9.6%
Standard Deviation 12.2% 11.5% 11.0%
Nominal Compound Return 8.1% 8.5% 9.1%
Sharpe Ratio 0.39 0.44 0.51
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
ArithmeticAverageReturn(%)
Standard Deviation (%)
Diversified Portfolio With PE
Diversified Portfolio Without PE
Simple
28
Top performing institutions had the highest average allocation to private equity
Institutions with the lowest average allocations to alternative investments were in the bottom quartile
29
Ten-Year Asset Allocation of Top and Bottom Performers As of March 31, 2016
The importance of adopting a clear and consistent strategy
Consistent pacing
Need to maintain an ongoing search and investment discipline to maintain exposure, due to the
pattern of capital calls and distributions rather than a single, up-front, lump sum allocation
!
Portfolio positioning
Given it functions as a series of cash-flows over time, there is an ability to over-commit to the
asset class, particularly considering many commitments do not get drawn-down in full and that
early distributions can be used to fund later calls
!
Diversification to manage return dispersion
A rolling programme, taking in an appropriate number and mix of funds by vintage, strategy,
geography and manager should be maintained at all times
!
The importance of manager selection
In this asset class, more than any other, track record in relation to the best performing managers
and one’s ability to select them is strongly indicative of likely future returns
30
Long-term private equity returns are compelling and the top 2 quartiles even more so
CA US Private Equity: Periodic Rates of Return
As of December 31, 2015
Sources: Data is calculated in US dollars and sourced from Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, Standard & Poor's, and Thomson Reuters Datastream.
Notes: Pooled private investment periodic returns are net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. Multi-year annualized returns are generated for time periods ending December 31, 2015.
PeriodicRatesofReturn%
0
9
18
26
35
15-Year 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
11.65
9.19
6.807.28
15.13
12.57
7.31
5.00
13.2613.03
11.1710.89
20.30
18.73
17.0417.17
CA US Private Equity (Top Two Quartiles) CA US Private Equity Index S&P 500 Russell 2000®
31
Here we observe returns within the US market, which depicts the additive impact of high quality manager selection
Longer-term, good manager selection has added a further 500-700bps of annual performance
Here we observe returns within Europe, which shows that good manager selection remains key across every region
Sources: Data is as at December 31, 2015, calculated in Euro. Sourced from Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, MSCI and Thomson Reuters Datastream.
Notes: Pooled private investment periodic returns are net of fees, expenses and carried interest. Multi-Year Annualised Returns are generated for time periods ending December 31, 2015.
PeriodicRatesofReturn%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
15-Year 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
11.48
8.36
4.22
2.47
15.33
13.15
12.12
12.88
19.99
17.47
16.70
18.14
CA Europe Private Equity (Top Two Quartiles)
CA Europe Private Equity Index
MSCI Europe Index
CA European Private Equity: Periodic Rates of Return
As of December 31, 2015
32
Diversification across strategy is important. US VC returns are making a come-back
As of December 31, 2015
CA US Venture Capital Periodic Rates of Return
PeriodicRatesofReturn%
0
9
18
26
35
15-Year 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
11.65
9.19
6.807.28
15.13
12.57
7.31
5.00
21.18
16.23
10.90
4.21
30.00
24.04
17.01
8.35
CA US Venture Capital (Top Two Quartiles) CA US Venture Capital Index S&P 500 Russell 2000®
Sources: Data is calculated in US dollars and sourced from Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, Standard & Poor's, and Thomson Reuters Datastream.
Notes: Pooled private investment periodic returns are net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. Multi-year annualized returns are generated for time periods ending December 31, 2015.
33
US PE valuations and fundraising: maintain a rolling spread of vintages
USPE Commitments, EBITDA Purchase Price and Leverage Multiples
2000 – 2015. As of December 31, 2015.
Sources: Cambridge Associates LLC, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Standard & Poor’s LCD.
Notes: Purchase price multiple is defined as enterprise value over EBITDA and leverage multiple is defined as net debt over EBITDA. 2015 Capital Commitments data as of June 30th,
2015. Average PPM and leverage data as of December 31st, 2015.
!Copyright © 2016 by Cambridge Associates LLC. All rights reserved. Confidential.
MultipleofEBITDA
0.0x
2.8x
5.5x
8.3x
11.0x
CapitalCommitments(US$billions)
0
75
150
225
300
Calendar Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital Commitments (LHS)
Average Purchase Price Multiple (RHS)
Average Leverage (RHS)
104.6
197.4
180.2
138.8
91.4
62.664.4
210.1
280.5
208
124.2
72.1
32.5
58.653.2
87.3
34
Thank you
Questions welcome
!
!
!
Ian Prideaux, Chief Investment Officer
Grosvenor Estate
35
Surprise Talk
The Seven Deadly
Sins… …
By Yaron Valler
36
…Of family office
venture investing


Pride

We	know	what	we	are	doing

37
Greed	

We	don’t	want	to	pay	fees	
38
Lust	

Running	after	shiny,	trendy,	expensive	deals	
39
Envy	

Investing	because	others	do	(AKA	FOMO)
40
Gluttony	

Over	allocation,	under	estimating	capital	reserves		
41


Wrath	

Changing	strategy,	getting	rid	of	management	and	over	activity	when	
things	don’t	work	out		
42
Sloth	

not	doing	the	homework	
43
The	four	cardinal	virtues:	
• Prudence:	Work	with	professional	managers,	
build	a	balanced	portfolio,	have	a	long	term	
strategy	
• Justice:	Support	your	managers	and	
entrepreneurs	(if	they	do	their	job)				
• Temperance:	Don’t	go	after	trendy	investments	
and	DON’T	over	extend,	don’t	buy	logos		
• Courage:	Stay	the	course,	invest	in	downturns,	
come	to	your	own	conclusions		
44
Let’s engage in a group discussion to reflect the diversity of PE as an investment class
The Panel
Stephanie Delperdange!
Ian Prideaux!
Jerome Wittamer!
Matthias Ummenhofer!
45
Funds, Directs, Co Invests - !
GLOBAL
Stephanie
Delperdange
Director, !
SOFINA
CIO, !
Grosvenor Estate
Founding Partner, !
Expon Capital
Founding Partner,
Mojo.Capital
Funds, Co Invests -
GLOBAL
Venture Fund, early stage -
EUROPE
Fund of VC Funds and Co
Invests - EUROPE
Ian
Prideaux
Matthias
Ummenhofer
Jerome
Wittamer
Our panelists
46
Rajaa
Mekouar
Funds of Funds!
GLOBAL
Head of PE &
Advisory, !
Fuchs Group
❖ What is your own definition of Private Equity?!
❖ Describe your current approach/allocation to PE and achieved performance to date? !
❖ How should Risk be attributed to the different asset classes in today’s environment?!
❖ Alternative strategies: How should an investor decide:!
❖ Funds or Directs or Fund of Funds?!
❖ Developed markets v emerging markets?!
❖ Listed PE?

❖ Biggest “lesson” learned from “mistake” made in PE investing?!
❖ Illiquidity premium: Is it justified on a risk adjusted basis? Is listed PE viable?!
❖ Advice for the entry level PE investor? !
❖ BREXIT (For Ian only): Will there be an impact on PE as an industry?
Panel Questions
47
Jerome Wittamer, Chairman of the LPEA
Conclusion Where are we going from
here…
48
Private	Equity

The	Next	10	Years
5 July, 2016
2
LPEA	Today
132	
members	
from	25	founders	in	
2010
LPEA	represents,	promotes	and	
protects	the	interests	of	the	
Luxembourg	private	equity	and	venture	
capital	industry
200	active	members	on		
5	technical	committees
61

PE	Houses	
71

Service	Providers
AFFILIATION	TO	
Invest	Europe	
*	Rep.	Group

*	Tax,	Legal	and	Reg.	Com.	
HCPF	
CSSF	GFIA	Com.	
PROFIL	
LFF	
!
&	close	contacts	with	
ALFI,	LIMSA,	LAFO...
Full	Members
Associate	Members
ABN AMRO BANK (Luxembourg) S.A.	
AIG	
Allen & Overy Luxembourg	
Alter Domus!
Arendt & Medernach!
Astris S.àr.l.	
AtoZ S.A.	
AVEGA S.àr.l.	
Aztec Financial Services (Luxembourg) S.A.	
Baker & McKenzie Luxembourg	
Banque de Luxembourg	
Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild	
BDO Tax and Accounting 	
BIL Luxembourg	
Bonn & Schmitt	
Bonn Steichen & Partners	
Brown Brothers Harriman (Luxembourg) S.C.A.	
Caceis Bank Luxembourg	
Capita Fiduciary SA 	
Carey SA	
CBP Quilvest S.A.	
Centralis SA	
Citco Luxembourg	
Citibank International PLC.
Clément & Avocats!
Clifford Chance	
Crestbridge S.A. 	
Deloitte S.A.	
DLA Piper Luxembourg S.àr.l.	
DLP Law Firm S.àr.l.	
Elian Fiduciary Services S.àr.l.	
Elvinger, Hoss & Prussen!
Ernst & Young	
Etude Loesch	
Experta Corporate & Trust Services S.A.	
Gentoo Financial Services (Luxembourg) SA	
Grant Thornton PKF Weber & Bontemps	
Halsey Group S.àr.l.	
Hogan Lovells (Luxembourg) LLP	
ING Luxembourg S.A.	
Intertrust (Luxembourg) S.àr.l.	
Intesa Sanpaolo Bank Luxembourg S.A.	
Ipes (Luxembourg) S.à r.l.	
JTC (Luxembourg) S.A.	
KBL European Private Bankers S.A.	
King & Wood Mallesons (SJ Berwin Luxembourg)	
KPMG	
Linklaters LLP
Loyens & Loeff!
LRI Invest S.A.	
Luther Law Firm	
Luxembourg Investment Solutions S.A.	
MaplesFS Luxembourg S.A.	
Mazars Luxembourg SA	
MNKS	
Ogier!
OPF Partners Luxembourg	
Oppenheim Asset Management Services	
Pandomus!
PricewaterhouseCoopers	
RBS Global Banking (Luxembourg) S.A.	
Roemers Trapp Pautot!
Sanne Group (Luxembourg) S.A. 	
Sedlo Jimenez Lunz 	
SGG S.A.	
Société Générale Bank & Trust 	
State Street (Alternative Investment Solutions)	
Stibbe Avocats!
TMF Luxembourg S.A.	
United International Management S.A.	
Vandenbulke!
Vistra Luxembourg S.àr.l!
Wildgen, Partners in Law
5
PE	in	Luxembourg
2000	
FTP
9	out	of	10	of	
Europe’s	largest	PE	
firms	operate	from	
Luxembourg
800+	
AIFMs
€300B	
AUM
Centre	of	excellence	for

international	
investissements
Optimal	
legal	and	tax	
environment
	Multilingual	Juridiction
Limited	Partnership	
1000+	SCSp
The	Bigger	Picture
The growing challenge : Too much capital
!
!
”The relationship between the financial economy ↑ and the underlying real
economy ↓ has reached a decisive turning point.”!
!
Global capital has swollen to $700+ trillion in 2015 tripling since 1995 and equating
10x the value of global output of all goods and services ($73T).
The	Bigger	Picture
The growing challenge : Too much capital
The	Bigger	Picture
The growing challenge : Too much capital
The	Bigger	Picture
Power will shift from owners of capital to owners of good ideas
The	Bigger	Picture
VCs have sharp skills for spotting promising investments
The	Bigger	Picture
• Decreasing	role	of	nation	states	
• Use	of	money	[to	fund	progress]	:	technology,	philantropy,	health,	education	
• Bain’s	5	platform	technologies
The	Bigger	Picture
Private	Equity	:		
Probably	worth	taking	a	closer	look	at
Conclusion




Jerome	Wittamer

jerome.wittamer@lpea.lu	
jwittamer@exponcapital.com	

+352	661	353	319
Feel	free	to	contact	us:	
rajaa.mekouar@fuchsgroup.com		
+352	691	201	550
63

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Fuchs & Associes - LPEA: "Private Equity, the Long Term Investor Journey"

  • 1. Welcome to our 1st joint event on Private Equity Luxembourg, 5th July 2016 1
  • 2. “PE Investing: The Long Term Investor Journey” ❖ Agenda: WELCOME ! ❖ Rajaa Mekouar: PE Back to Basics! ❖ Ian Prideaux: The Role of Private Equity Within a Long Term Portfolio ! ❖ Surprise guest: The 7 deadly sins! ❖ Panel: Different ways to PE exposure: First hand feedback from experts! ❖ Jerome Wittamer: Conclusion ! ❖ Cocktail: All invited to join to continue the debate around a drink/canape 2
  • 3. This is NOT today’s topic Brexit and PE But you can ask the panelists later…! ! Two of whom are actually mentioned in the recent media stories quoted here.. ! ! ! ! 3 Nota Bene…
  • 4. Back to Basics… Private Equity 101 (from my 15 years of first hand exposure to PE) This presentation is for the wealth manager, private investor, asset manager who is intrigued but not too familiar with PE (Apologies to the more experienced ones…) 4
  • 5. Setting the mood… Food for inspiration With the current market context of excessive liquidity and central bank intervention, private strategies make sense as an “optionality” 5 23 July 2015
  • 6. PE Today’s Big stats Global Private Capital*AuM exceeds over $4 trillion Source: Preqin - Figures at June 2015 unless otherwise specified - * Includes Private Capital ie Private debt, Real Estate, Infra and Natural Resources! Total capital raised by 1,062 funds reached $551bn (full 2015) Total unrealised value stands at $2.8trillion $2.4 trillion AuM! $288bn raised (689 funds)! $189bn distribution! $755bn dry powder (+9%) $411bn deal value! $416bn exit value! (for the year 2015) $136bn deal value! $73bn exit value! (for the year 2015) 6
  • 7. PE is cyclical too… PE’s journey through times PE reached its peak in terms of amounts raised pre 2008 crisis and has sustained high activity levels since - Funds are getting fewer but raising more! Source: ThomsonOne, 31.12.2015*! *Includes other private capital strategies 7
  • 8. PE has a wide base of investors Who invests in PE? Large institutions especially Pension Funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds are the dominant force (close to 60% of total investments) 8 Source: Preqin, 2014 $bn invested! in PE by investor type and as a % of total AuM
  • 9. Family Offices are relatively over allocated in PE v institutions How much do they invest in PE? Family Offices are a growing source of funding for PE in general, with an increasing proportion entering the asset class across the world (US bias) 9 Source: iCapital, 2015 % allocation to PE
  • 10. Time for Action… Untangling the maze Is PE an investment class for you to consider? If so, why and how? 10
  • 11. ❖ PE outperforms public markets (Illiquidity premium + Alpha generation)! ❖ PE provides effective risk/return diversification for a typical portfolio ! ❖ PE is a great way of accessing differentiated investment opportunities! ! ❖ Does PE require to stay “stuck” for 10 years?! ! ❖ PE seems for the high risk takers only! ! ❖ It seems PE is for the “very rich” investors with large tickets to invest PE: Perception v Reality 11
  • 12. Understanding PE… (video) How the “GP” does it by the European Association of PE/VC (Invest Europe) 12
  • 13. PE encompasses different investment stages with different risk/return profiles PE stages LBOs remain the largest segment in PE, but VC has recently developed substantially, in Europe and elsewhere 13 €1-1m €1m-100m €20m-1b €5m-1b+ €5m-1b+ Source: Goldman Sachs
  • 14. 10-year manager performance dispersion PE performance driven by quality of manager PE outperforms all other asset classes but only if the right managers are selected 14 Source: Hewitt EnnisKnupp’ eVestment Alliance, Thomson Reuters, NCREIF, The Townsend Group, Hedge Fund Research Inc (2013) - US Dispersion of returns
  • 15. Annualised compound returns on Calpers’ 20 years returns PE Economics Management fees: 2% typically, for a PE/VC fund, on committed capital (but varies)! Carried interest: 20% on profits generated, 80% to investors (also varies)! Other considerations: ! Alignment of interests: Co investments, Hurdle rate (most cases)! Fund of Funds! 15 Source: State Street via Calpers
  • 16. It is about long term investing…. PE “J curve”effect Chart shows evolution of cash in/out and cashflows in a typical PE cycle Commitments Capital calls Distributions Net cumulative cash flows (US$m) Source: Pictet 16
  • 17. Commenting the “J Curve” effect ❖ Commitment drawdown and allocation: over time unlike with hedge funds! ❖ Net contributions (of distributions) rarely exceed 2/3 of committed capital ! ❖ Key performance measures: ! ❖ IRR* (Internal rate of return)! ❖ Multiples (without time factor) / TVPI** (Total value to paid-in capital)! ❖ DVPI (Distibuted to paid in capital)! ❖ Pre distribution, negative IRR* due to:! ❖ Impact of management fees! ❖ Conservative valuations (eg illiquidity discount / upside via realisation)! ❖ Ways to smooth the J Curve effect:! ❖ Fee reduction ! ❖ Secondary investments (Trade off) 17 *The IRR is the discount rate that makes the net present value of all cash flows equal to zero! **Total value to paid-in (TVPI) ratio represents the fund’s total value as a multiple of its cost basis. TVPI is calculated by dividing the realised amount added to the net asset value of unrealised investments by the investment cost
  • 18. The Investor Journey Getting over the hurdles Addressing questions and concerns… 18
  • 19. 19 Hurdle 1: Process Sourcing Due diligence Timing
  • 20. Different routes to investment in PE Hurdle 2: Structuring Consider carefully the pros and cons of each vehicle and evaluate feasibility 20 Increasing risk and complexity
  • 21. Hurdle 3: Decision making 21 Go-no Go: Evaluate your short and mid term liquidity needs Decide the % allocation that brings you closest to “efficient frontier”! Together with the investment stages that fit your risk/return profile! Opt out of strategies that don't fit your risk/return profile Add liquidity spin where/when possible Maximise bargaining power ! Negotiate fees Choose the optimal investment vehicle also based on your ticket size ! ! ! ! TRUSTED! ! ! ! Partners Ongoing! monitoring
  • 22. Have we helped clarify the PE picture? Please reach out for questions!!! ! Now more enlightening facts and stories from our guest speaker… 22
  • 23. Keynote Presentation The Role of Private Equity Within a Long Term Portfolio Grosvenor Estate! 23
  • 24. Ian Prideaux Our Guest Speaker CIO 24 ❖ Ian is deploying money in assets other than real estate, with a view to diversification over a long term time horizon. He puts forward an asset allocation plan and select the appropriate managers for the different parts of that plan.! ❖ The investment portfolio includes public equities and fixed income, private equity, hedge funds, absolute return instruments, cash and has in the past included commodities. ! ❖ All assets are run by third party managers, with assistance of Cambridge Associates as investment consultants who also carry out monitoring and performance reporting.
  • 25. Who is it… Grosvenor Estate ❖ International property business Grosvenor Group Ltd! ❖ Direct investment business of the Wheatsheaf Group ! ❖ Family Investment Office which supports the private interests of the family of The Duke of Westminster and associated family trusts. 25
  • 26. Key advantages of private equity as an asset class in portfolios… Well-selected private equity is a proven driver of portfolio growth Private equity and venture capital has demonstrated long-term outperformance of public equity markets as underlying investments are fully realised Cambridge Associates (CA) research shows that clients with high allocations have outperformed those with smaller allocations over the longer term Grosvenor’s private equity portfolio has already generated a premium of 3.6% p.a. above public markets since inception (2006) ! Improves diversification and ability to access strategies that are under- represented by public markets Access to developing and disruptive technologies, which are not available through the public markets Exposure to sectors, geographies and parts of the capital structure that are not available through traditional markets Low correlation with traditional asset classes and other alternative asset classes 26
  • 27. …Key advantages of private equity as an asset class in portfolios The outlook for private equity is challenging today but there are more options for generating strong returns than ‘plain-vanilla’ buyouts. Ability to generate outsized absolute returns due to inherent inefficiency in how investments are sourced, capital is deployed, management is reorganised and companies are operated Capacity for skilled managers to make mid-long term decisions away from the glare of the public markets and short term benchmarks CA still expect premium returns (3-5% above public equity over the long-term) for a diversified programme and net IRRs of 10-15%+ today ! Excellent investment opportunities for long-term investors with limited liquidity needs A 15% allocation to PE & VC is average for large sophisticated, internationally focused families, colleges and endowments Grosvenor’s current allocation stands at around 11.2% on a ‘fully drawn’ basis 27
  • 28. Private equity can help diversified portfolios earn better risk-adjusted returns A private equity programme containing exposure to all sub-classes adds considerable efficiency through greater risk-adjusted returns ! Improved efficiency results in a tighter range of returns over time (important in managing annual payouts and budgets) ! The probability of experiencing a return shortfall is lower with the diversified portfolio Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Returns are nominal and assume 3% inflation. Source: Cambridge Associates CLIENT XYZ EFFICIENT REGION ANALYSIS ASSET CLASSES ALLOCATIONS Simple Diversified Portfolio Without PI Diversified Portfolio With PI U.S. Equity 50.0% 30.0% 15.0% Global ex U.S. Equity 20.0 20.0 15.0 Emerging Markets Equity - - - 6.0 6.0 Absolute Return - - - 6.0 8.0 Equity Hedge Funds - - - 10.0 12.0 Venture Capital - - - - - - 5.0 Private Equity - - - - - - 8.0 Commodities - - - 4.0 1.0 Natural Resource Equity - - - 3.0 - - - REITs - - - 3.0 2.0 Real Estate - - - - - - 8.0 Oil & Gas - - - - - - 4.0 Timber - - - - - - 3.0 U.S. Fixed Income 30.0 12.0 8.0 U.S. TIPS - - - 3.0 2.0 Global Fixed Income - - - 3.0 2.0 High Yield Bonds - - - - - - 1.0 Nominal Arithmetic Return 8.8% 9.1% 9.6% Standard Deviation 12.2% 11.5% 11.0% Nominal Compound Return 8.1% 8.5% 9.1% Sharpe Ratio 0.39 0.44 0.51 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% ArithmeticAverageReturn(%) Standard Deviation (%) Diversified Portfolio With PE Diversified Portfolio Without PE Simple 28
  • 29. Top performing institutions had the highest average allocation to private equity Institutions with the lowest average allocations to alternative investments were in the bottom quartile 29 Ten-Year Asset Allocation of Top and Bottom Performers As of March 31, 2016
  • 30. The importance of adopting a clear and consistent strategy Consistent pacing Need to maintain an ongoing search and investment discipline to maintain exposure, due to the pattern of capital calls and distributions rather than a single, up-front, lump sum allocation ! Portfolio positioning Given it functions as a series of cash-flows over time, there is an ability to over-commit to the asset class, particularly considering many commitments do not get drawn-down in full and that early distributions can be used to fund later calls ! Diversification to manage return dispersion A rolling programme, taking in an appropriate number and mix of funds by vintage, strategy, geography and manager should be maintained at all times ! The importance of manager selection In this asset class, more than any other, track record in relation to the best performing managers and one’s ability to select them is strongly indicative of likely future returns 30
  • 31. Long-term private equity returns are compelling and the top 2 quartiles even more so CA US Private Equity: Periodic Rates of Return As of December 31, 2015 Sources: Data is calculated in US dollars and sourced from Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, Standard & Poor's, and Thomson Reuters Datastream. Notes: Pooled private investment periodic returns are net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. Multi-year annualized returns are generated for time periods ending December 31, 2015. PeriodicRatesofReturn% 0 9 18 26 35 15-Year 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year 11.65 9.19 6.807.28 15.13 12.57 7.31 5.00 13.2613.03 11.1710.89 20.30 18.73 17.0417.17 CA US Private Equity (Top Two Quartiles) CA US Private Equity Index S&P 500 Russell 2000® 31 Here we observe returns within the US market, which depicts the additive impact of high quality manager selection
  • 32. Longer-term, good manager selection has added a further 500-700bps of annual performance Here we observe returns within Europe, which shows that good manager selection remains key across every region Sources: Data is as at December 31, 2015, calculated in Euro. Sourced from Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, MSCI and Thomson Reuters Datastream. Notes: Pooled private investment periodic returns are net of fees, expenses and carried interest. Multi-Year Annualised Returns are generated for time periods ending December 31, 2015. PeriodicRatesofReturn% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 15-Year 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year 11.48 8.36 4.22 2.47 15.33 13.15 12.12 12.88 19.99 17.47 16.70 18.14 CA Europe Private Equity (Top Two Quartiles) CA Europe Private Equity Index MSCI Europe Index CA European Private Equity: Periodic Rates of Return As of December 31, 2015 32
  • 33. Diversification across strategy is important. US VC returns are making a come-back As of December 31, 2015 CA US Venture Capital Periodic Rates of Return PeriodicRatesofReturn% 0 9 18 26 35 15-Year 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year 11.65 9.19 6.807.28 15.13 12.57 7.31 5.00 21.18 16.23 10.90 4.21 30.00 24.04 17.01 8.35 CA US Venture Capital (Top Two Quartiles) CA US Venture Capital Index S&P 500 Russell 2000® Sources: Data is calculated in US dollars and sourced from Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, Standard & Poor's, and Thomson Reuters Datastream. Notes: Pooled private investment periodic returns are net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. Multi-year annualized returns are generated for time periods ending December 31, 2015. 33
  • 34. US PE valuations and fundraising: maintain a rolling spread of vintages USPE Commitments, EBITDA Purchase Price and Leverage Multiples 2000 – 2015. As of December 31, 2015. Sources: Cambridge Associates LLC, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Standard & Poor’s LCD. Notes: Purchase price multiple is defined as enterprise value over EBITDA and leverage multiple is defined as net debt over EBITDA. 2015 Capital Commitments data as of June 30th, 2015. Average PPM and leverage data as of December 31st, 2015. !Copyright © 2016 by Cambridge Associates LLC. All rights reserved. Confidential. MultipleofEBITDA 0.0x 2.8x 5.5x 8.3x 11.0x CapitalCommitments(US$billions) 0 75 150 225 300 Calendar Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Capital Commitments (LHS) Average Purchase Price Multiple (RHS) Average Leverage (RHS) 104.6 197.4 180.2 138.8 91.4 62.664.4 210.1 280.5 208 124.2 72.1 32.5 58.653.2 87.3 34
  • 35. Thank you Questions welcome ! ! ! Ian Prideaux, Chief Investment Officer Grosvenor Estate 35
  • 36. Surprise Talk The Seven Deadly Sins… … By Yaron Valler 36 …Of family office venture investing
  • 44. The four cardinal virtues: • Prudence: Work with professional managers, build a balanced portfolio, have a long term strategy • Justice: Support your managers and entrepreneurs (if they do their job) • Temperance: Don’t go after trendy investments and DON’T over extend, don’t buy logos • Courage: Stay the course, invest in downturns, come to your own conclusions 44
  • 45. Let’s engage in a group discussion to reflect the diversity of PE as an investment class The Panel Stephanie Delperdange! Ian Prideaux! Jerome Wittamer! Matthias Ummenhofer! 45
  • 46. Funds, Directs, Co Invests - ! GLOBAL Stephanie Delperdange Director, ! SOFINA CIO, ! Grosvenor Estate Founding Partner, ! Expon Capital Founding Partner, Mojo.Capital Funds, Co Invests - GLOBAL Venture Fund, early stage - EUROPE Fund of VC Funds and Co Invests - EUROPE Ian Prideaux Matthias Ummenhofer Jerome Wittamer Our panelists 46 Rajaa Mekouar Funds of Funds! GLOBAL Head of PE & Advisory, ! Fuchs Group
  • 47. ❖ What is your own definition of Private Equity?! ❖ Describe your current approach/allocation to PE and achieved performance to date? ! ❖ How should Risk be attributed to the different asset classes in today’s environment?! ❖ Alternative strategies: How should an investor decide:! ❖ Funds or Directs or Fund of Funds?! ❖ Developed markets v emerging markets?! ❖ Listed PE?
 ❖ Biggest “lesson” learned from “mistake” made in PE investing?! ❖ Illiquidity premium: Is it justified on a risk adjusted basis? Is listed PE viable?! ❖ Advice for the entry level PE investor? ! ❖ BREXIT (For Ian only): Will there be an impact on PE as an industry? Panel Questions 47
  • 48. Jerome Wittamer, Chairman of the LPEA Conclusion Where are we going from here… 48
  • 52. Associate Members ABN AMRO BANK (Luxembourg) S.A. AIG Allen & Overy Luxembourg Alter Domus! Arendt & Medernach! Astris S.àr.l. AtoZ S.A. AVEGA S.àr.l. Aztec Financial Services (Luxembourg) S.A. Baker & McKenzie Luxembourg Banque de Luxembourg Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild BDO Tax and Accounting BIL Luxembourg Bonn & Schmitt Bonn Steichen & Partners Brown Brothers Harriman (Luxembourg) S.C.A. Caceis Bank Luxembourg Capita Fiduciary SA Carey SA CBP Quilvest S.A. Centralis SA Citco Luxembourg Citibank International PLC. Clément & Avocats! Clifford Chance Crestbridge S.A. Deloitte S.A. DLA Piper Luxembourg S.àr.l. DLP Law Firm S.àr.l. Elian Fiduciary Services S.àr.l. Elvinger, Hoss & Prussen! Ernst & Young Etude Loesch Experta Corporate & Trust Services S.A. Gentoo Financial Services (Luxembourg) SA Grant Thornton PKF Weber & Bontemps Halsey Group S.àr.l. Hogan Lovells (Luxembourg) LLP ING Luxembourg S.A. Intertrust (Luxembourg) S.àr.l. Intesa Sanpaolo Bank Luxembourg S.A. Ipes (Luxembourg) S.à r.l. JTC (Luxembourg) S.A. KBL European Private Bankers S.A. King & Wood Mallesons (SJ Berwin Luxembourg) KPMG Linklaters LLP Loyens & Loeff! LRI Invest S.A. Luther Law Firm Luxembourg Investment Solutions S.A. MaplesFS Luxembourg S.A. Mazars Luxembourg SA MNKS Ogier! OPF Partners Luxembourg Oppenheim Asset Management Services Pandomus! PricewaterhouseCoopers RBS Global Banking (Luxembourg) S.A. Roemers Trapp Pautot! Sanne Group (Luxembourg) S.A. Sedlo Jimenez Lunz SGG S.A. Société Générale Bank & Trust State Street (Alternative Investment Solutions) Stibbe Avocats! TMF Luxembourg S.A. United International Management S.A. Vandenbulke! Vistra Luxembourg S.àr.l! Wildgen, Partners in Law
  • 55. The growing challenge : Too much capital ! ! ”The relationship between the financial economy ↑ and the underlying real economy ↓ has reached a decisive turning point.”! ! Global capital has swollen to $700+ trillion in 2015 tripling since 1995 and equating 10x the value of global output of all goods and services ($73T). The Bigger Picture
  • 56. The growing challenge : Too much capital The Bigger Picture
  • 57. The growing challenge : Too much capital The Bigger Picture
  • 58. Power will shift from owners of capital to owners of good ideas The Bigger Picture
  • 59. VCs have sharp skills for spotting promising investments The Bigger Picture
  • 63. 63