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Presentasi UGM1
- 1. UGM CAPITAL MARKET DISCUSSION I Gusti Ngurah Komang Suadnyana Yogyakarta, 6 September 2016
- 2. My Profile • I Gusti Ngurah Komang Suadnyana • 22 Yo • STIE YKPN • My license: Broker dealer certified (WPPE) • My research: “Analisis Perbedaan Pengaruh Laju Inflasi, Kebijakan Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan PDB Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Properti dan Sektor Keuangan. (Studi empiris di BEI pengamatan tahun 2008-2015)”
- 4. My License
- 5. Discussion Overview • What is fundamental analyze? • What is technical analyze? • Which is more better between fundamental or technical analyze?
- 6. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYZE Fundamental analyze is an analyze that concern about the situation of marcoeconomics and politics in some country, P/L company report, cash flow, and current balance.
- 7. Macroeconomics Analyze • Inflation o The reference said if the inflation incline it make the stock market down. Why? But? • Interest Rate o The reference said if the interest rate incline it make the stock market down. Why? But? • Exchange Rate o The reference said if the exchange rate (US Dollar) incline it make the stock market down. Why? But? • Growth of GDP o The reference said if the growth of GDP (Rupiah) incline it make the stock market up. Why? But?
- 8. Why?
- 9. Conclusion • Based on the data we can see that trend of inflation, BI rate and GDP is decline and exchange rate (US Dollar) incline. So, its mean: o The inflation trend is decline and the stock market up. CONSISTENT! o The BI rate trend is decline and the stock market up. CONSISTENT! o The GDP trend is decline and the stock market up. INCONSISTENT! o The exchange rate (US Dollar) trend is incline and the stock market up. INCONSISTENT! • Why the stock index up from 2008-2015? Because foreign net buy!
- 10. The Fact!
- 11. Microeconomics Analyze • Microeconomics Analyze or Company Analyze? o All about ratio? • Activity ratio? ( TATO, Inventory Turnover, Receivable Turnover) • Liquidity ratio? (CR, QR) • Profitability ratio? (GPM, NPM, ROI, ROA, ROE) • Leverage ratio? (DAR, DER) o Company economic moat (UNVR, INDF, ASII) (Riyanto, 2001)
- 12. TECHNICAL ANALYZE Technical analyze is an analyze that use for short term investor (trader). The function is to predicted the stock movement. By the end, trader can make a desicion to buy/sell stock
- 13. Leading Indicator • Leading indicator is the indicator that move before the stock price change. • Leading indicator such as Stockhastic (fast or slow).
- 15. Lagging Indicator • Lagging indicator is the indicator that move after the stock price change. • Lagging indicator such as Moving Average (MA 20, 60, 120).
- 17. your self your budget your goal your ways 4 METHOD of KNOWING
- 18. MAKE IT EASY! Investing Selecting Stock • Macroeconomics • Microeconomics When to buy/sell •Technical Analyze Your goal is your style • Short term • Long term DON’T LOSE YOUR MONEY!
- 19. LOOKING AHEAD • Always listening to the news or peoples. • Known risks and issues! • Make your self skeptic.
- 20. Bibliography www.beritasatu.com www.dwsec-id.com Riyanto, Bambang. 2001. Dasar-dasar Pembelanjaan Perusahaan. Yogyakarta. BFE UGM.
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