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Recent Advanced on Climate change and Human Health

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Recent Advanced on Climate change and Human Health

  1. 1. Ravi K Mishra MPH, 3rd Batch Department of Community Medicine, NMC, Birgunj Recent Advanced on Climate Change and Human Health 1
  2. 2. Outline of Recent Advanced • Introduction • Observed Climate Change • Climate change in Nepal Context • Impacts of Climate Change • Health Impacts of Climate Change • Recent Activities on climate change and Public Health • Vulnerability • References Total No of Slide:66 Estimated Time Period : 50 Minutes 2
  3. 3. Climate Change Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. It describes changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the earth, external forces or, more recently, human activities. Source (IPCC 2007) 3
  4. 4. The impact of climate change is not experienced equally through out the world. Developing Countries are considered to be particularly susceptible to climate change due to their limited capacity to cope with hazards associated with changes in climate change. Nepal is no exception in being a country vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to its fragile mountain ecosystem, weak geological condition and diverse nature of climate. 4
  5. 5. Observed Climate Change  Global average surface air temperature has increased, especially since about 1950.  The average temperature of the world has increased by 0.74 degree Celsius over the last 100 years (1906-2005).  2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years in the instrumental global surface air temperature record since 1850. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006)-1996 exception-rank among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850.  Climate models calculate that the global mean surface temperature could rise by about 1 to 4.5 centigrade by 2100.  Average global precipitation has also increased by 0.5-1% annually. It is decreasing in equatorial region and increasing in higher latitude. Precipitation has increased over land at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, especially during the cold season. Decrease in precipitation occurred in steps after the 1960s over the subtropics and the tropics from Africa to Indonesia. 5
  6. 6. Observed Climate Change Temperature  Days and nights are both becoming warmer.  Warm spell duration (Long hot days) is increasing  Cool nights and cool days are becoming less frequent. Extreme weather ahead Rainfall Total rainfall and heavy rainfall events are increasing Maximum 24 hour rainfall is also increasing 6
  7. 7. Climate change may result from:  Natural factors, such as changes in the Sun’s energy or slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun; changes in ocean circulation.  Anthropogenic factors that change the atmosphere’s make- up (e.g., burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g., cutting down forests, building developments in cities and suburbs, etc.). 7
  8. 8. Global warming  Global Warming is an average increase in temperatures near the Earth’s surface and in the lowest layer of the atmosphere.  Increases in temperatures in our Earth’s atmosphere can contribute to changes in global climate patterns.  It can be considered part of climate change along with changes in precipitation, sea level, etc. 8
  9. 9. Greenhouse Effect  The greenhouse effect is a natural process in which the Earth's atmosphere insulate the Earth.  Incoming solar radiation (short-wave radiation) is absorbed at the Earth's surface. Energy is then radiated back from the Earth's surface into the atmosphere as long-wave radiation.  Over time there is an approximate balance in this incoming and outgoing radiation.  Changes to this balance, such as changes in the amount of radiation received or lost by the system(due to GHGs), or changes to the distribution cycles within the system, can affect climate. 9
  10. 10. IPCC 2007a Greenhouse gases’ effect 10
  11. 11. IPCC (2007):- Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations. Source :- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 11
  12. 12. IPCC (2007) Warming in the climate system is unequivocal. Source :- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 12
  13. 13. 13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. Environmental health risks in different scale Regional air pollution Acid rain, Asian brown cloud Global change Direct, toxic, hazard Extremes of exposures; disruption of life/health-support systems Environmental tobacco smoke Indoor air Local air pollution 15
  16. 16. Land Areas Warm More than the Oceans with the Greatest Warming at High Latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990. Global average in 2085 = 3.1°C. IPCC 2007b 17
  17. 17. Nepal Context  Nepal is the fourth most vulnerable country in terms of climate risks and 30th in terms of water-induced disaster. Climate change is posing additional threat to Nepal.  Nepal's average annual mean temperature has increased by 0.060C between 1977 and 2000 and these increases are more pronounced at higher altitudes and in winter.  There is a general increase in temperature extremes with warmer days and nights becoming more frequent and cooler days and nights less frequent.  A study conducted by Nepal Country Vulnerability Study Team in 2009 has projected that Nepal’s mean annual temperature may rise by 1.4 degree Celsius by 2030, 2.8 degree Celsius by 2060 and by 4.7 degree Celsius by 2090. 18
  18. 18. 19
  19. 19. Annual Mean Temperature Increase by Ecological Region in Nepal (1977-2000) Ecological Regions Temperature (°C) Mountain 0.08 Hill 0.06 Terai 0.04 Nepal 0.06 20
  20. 20. 21 (DHM, Nepal)
  21. 21. Climate Change: Temperature Distribution Shift to More Heat IPCC, 2007b 22
  22. 22. Impacts of Climate Change 23
  23. 23. Impacts on Water Resources  Water is the most impacted sector by climate change. Water impacts are key for all sectors.  IPCC predicts that by 2050, freshwater availability in central, south, east and south east Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease.  Effects of climate change on water resources could yield manifold implications either due to too much and/or too little water (NAPA 2010).  Due to rise in temperature, Himalayan region is noticeably impacted by climate change. The reported impact is rapid reduction in glaciers.  Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of water induced disasters. 24
  24. 24. Cont…  Nepal’s high altitude glaciers are thinning (30 cm-1 m) and retreating at an alarming rate (10-20m annually), faster than the world average, resulting in an increase in the number and size of glacial lakes and the threat of catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Lake Imja Tsho is an example of a glacier lake which was non- existent in 1960 and now covers nearly one square kilometre. The Imja glacier that feeds the lake has retreated 75 m between 2001 and 2006.  The new inventory identified 3,808 glaciers with a total area of 4212 sq.km and 1,466 glacial lakes in Nepal (ICIMOD 2011). The rapid reduction in glaciers has profound future implication for downstream water resources.  There are about 21 potentially dangerous glacial lakes identified by ICIMOD, among which 6 are most critical 25
  25. 25. Impacts on Agriculture  Nepal’s agriculture is facing risks due to changes in the reliability of stream flow, a more intense and potentially erratic monsoon rainfall and flooding. About 64% of cultivated areas are fully dependent on monsoon rainfall.  Decline in rainfall from November to April adversely affects the winter and spring crops.  Rice yields are sensitive to climatic conditions and may fall in western region and it may threaten overall food security. A study carried out by B.R.Regmi and A. Adhikary in 2007 reveals that climate change is posing threat to food security due to loss of some local land races and crops. 26
  26. 26. Cont…  Initial National Communication,2004 states that with the increase of temperature beyond 4 degree Celsius, the yield of Terai rice is projected to decrease. The effect of temperature on rice crops in the hills is little more severe than in the Terai. But in mountain region it is better, but rice is grown negligibly there.  The yield of wheat is projected to fall down with the rise in temperature in Terai. The effect of temperature on wheat yield in the hills is less than in Terai. There is insignificant decline of wheat yield in mountain environment with rise in temperature.  The rise in temperature will affect yield of maize crops in Terai more than wheat and rice crops. It affects less in the hills than in Terai but increases production of maize in mountain areas. 27
  27. 27. Impact on Livestock Livestock production is highly sensitive to climate change. Rising temperature increases lignifications of plant tissues and reduces the digestibility (Minson, 1990), reducing meat and milk production in range-based livestock production system. Increased heat stress is another pathway affecting the livestock production. The increased heat alters heat exchange between animal and environment affecting the feed intake and metabolism (SCA, 1990; Mader and Davis, 2004). Such stresses will affect growth and productivity of the animals. But, effects vary from species to species. Water buffaloes need frequent bath for heat exchange. Drying of ponds due to drought can deprive the buffaloes for taking baths affecting adversely the productivity of the buffaloes. Similarly, the increased energy deficits may decrease cow fertility, fitness, and longevity (King et al., 2006). Increased temperature and humidity will increase the risks of mortality and morbidity among the livestock and poultry. 28
  28. 28. Impacts on Forests and Biodiversity  IPCC predicts that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degree Celsius.  Increased temperature and rainfall variability have resulted into shifts in agro-ecological zones, prolonged dry spells, and higher incidences of pests and diseases.  New alien and invasive species are emerging and their habitat is spreading at a fast rate.  Migration of the forest towards the higher altitude, change in their composition, and extinction of species.  Extreme climatic conditions have led to increased incidence of fire in recent years affecting more than 50,000 people and loss of large areas of productive forest land. These changes lead to species and habitat loss. 29
  29. 29. Cont… 30
  30. 30. Cont… 31
  31. 31. Health Impacts of Climate Change McMichael et al. 2003a 32
  32. 32. Pathways: climate change human health Source: adapted from Patz et al., 2000 33
  33. 33. Change in disease pattern Food and nutrition Water source depletion Natural disaster Health Climate change Health impact of climate change Change in agent Change in carrier Change in host Disease Climate change Causal pathway Health impact of climate change: the causal pathway 34
  34. 34. 1) Extreme weather related: cold waves and heat waves in the Tarai, 2) Water and food borne: diarrhoea, dysentery, typhoid, giardiasis, amoebiasis, gastritis, jaundice and infectious hepatitis 3) Climate induced disaster: prolonged droughts and flash floods 4) Air pollution-related: respiratory diseases like acute respiratory infection (ARI), bronchitis & asthma 5) Vector borne diseases: Japanese encephalitis, Malaria, Dengue and Kala-azar (Visceral leishmaniasis) 6) Nutritional, Mental and Other: Malnutrition, Mental diseases and non-communicable diseases including injuries and accidents Climate Sensitive Diseases Identified by NAPA (2010) 35
  35. 35. Celsius Notes 27–32 °C Caution — fatigue is possible with prolonged exposure and activity. Continuing activity could result in heat cramps 32–41 °C Extreme caution — heat cramps, and heat exhaustion are possible. Continuing activity could result in heat stroke 41–54 °C Danger — heat cramps, and heat exhaustion are likely; heat stroke is probable with continued activity ≥54 °C Extreme danger — heat stroke is imminent Classification of heat index Source: Steadman (1979); http://www.bom.gov.au/info/thermal_stress 36
  36. 36. Recent activities in climate change and public health 37
  37. 37. Adaptation Initiatives  The government of Nepal prepared the NAPA in 2010 to address its urgent and immediate adaptation needs through a consultative and country-driven process.  NAPA is a strategic tool to access climatic vulnerability, and symmetrically respond to climate change adaptation issues by developing appropriate adaptation measures.  Out of about 250 adaptation options proposed by the Thematic Working Groups (TWG), nine integrated projects have been identified as the urgent and immediate national adaptation priority. 38
  38. 38. Cont…  The government of Nepal has approved the National Framework on Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA Framework) in 2011 that helps to integrate climate adaptation and resilience aspects in local and national plans.  Agriculture, forestry, health, water and sanitation, watersheds and micro- finance have been identified as the main entry points. But it states that education, local infrastructure, disasters and other environment-related areas may also be taken as entry points.  Since 2013, the government is implementing 70 Local Adaptation Plan for Actions in 69 village development committees and one municipality of 14 districts in the Mid and Far Western regions of Nepal with support from Nepal Climate Support Programme: Building Climate Resilience in Nepal Project funded by UNDP/DFID/EU 39
  39. 39. LAPA Process The LAPA Framework consists of the following 7 steps for formulation and implementation. They are:  Climate change sensitization  Climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment  Prioritization of adaptation options  LAPA formulation  LAPA integration in planning process  LAPA implementation  LAPA progress assessment 40
  41. 41. The Doha Declaration on Climate, Health and Wellbeing • The international health and medical community have developed a joint statement on climate health and wellbeing in Doha, Qatar on 2012. • It calls for health to be central to climate action, and highlights the opportunities to improve health through emissions reductions – pointing out that reducing fossil fuel consumption and moving to low carbon energy systems can deliver many benefits to health worldwide particularly children, women and poorer people and those in developing nations. 42
  42. 42. Tackling climate change in cities: the role of best practices • Increasingly the burden of developing climate change policy with ‘real’ efficacy has shifted to cities. • Cities now must interpret scientific findings into economic, and political terms then devise physical and social policy; they must also localize global ideas on climate change mitigation strategies. 43 (International centre for climate governance, 2014)
  43. 43. Contd… • Analysis of municipal plans from 51 cities across the globe, has highlighted commonalities in the efforts of cities to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on human health. • Under the umbrella of transportation, cities are focused on improving access to transportation, public transportation routes and services, variety of transportation options such as trains, and buses; and promotion of alternatives, namely cycling and walking (active travel), thereby improving health outcomes. 44
  44. 44. Contd… • Cities have focused on the built environment. • Through the employment of green building guidelines such as LEED and BREEAM, that are focused on increasing energy efficiency, using sustainable building materials and a rating system to encourage developers and cities to favor the construction of environmentally friendly buildings . 45
  45. 45. Contd… • Cities have increasingly been focused on Green Infrastructure (GI). • GI includes blue infrastructure, namely protecting water resources such as rivers, lakes, and wetlands. 46
  46. 46. Contd… • Portland (US), Vancouver (Canada) and New York (US), are three cities that tend to dominate in the realm of being green, with the City of Vancouver setting out to be the Greenest City by 2020. • New York, has a wide range of programs and initiatives aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change. Most notable of these is the city’s Environmental Public Health Tracking program. 47
  47. 47. Contd… • In Paris, after the 2003 heat wave, recognized the importance of preventing heat related deaths. • As part of their heat plan, they developed CHALEX (Chaleur Extreme) a registry of vulnerable individuals and their addresses that would enable municipal worker to visit or call these individuals during extreme heat events to ensure that their health is not compromised. • Nationally Singapore has NEWater practice, involves the purification of waste water to potable quality through reverse osmosis. 48
  48. 48. Activities by the German Federal Environment Agency on adaptation to climate change (2010) • In Germany, the Federal Environment Agency has invested a high level of resources in developing measures to address the issue of climate change and public health, in particular through establishing the national Competence Centre on Climate Impacts and Adaptation, which created a catalogue of climate change and health data that is and will be used by all decision-making bodies. • A climate change adaptation plan has been developed, including measures such as awareness-raising at both national and local levels. 49
  49. 49. Contd.. • The plan involved 15 sectors, including health, and included a database for sharing the information between stakeholders, rapid alert system and climate change guide for small and mediumsized businesses, which provides advice on issues such as pest control, the health impacts of pollen, and adaptation measures. 50
  50. 50. Contd… • An analysis of the heat health warning system and UV index was carried out for three key sectors of the population: nursing homes, kindergartens and elderly people living in single households. • The heat-health warning system was well-received by some nursing homes, and were interpreted as a principally appropriate instrument for health-related adaptation. • Although, for example 55% of nursing homes felt that the alerts were unnecessary as they would have taken the precautionary measures anyway, because of the prediction of the weather forecasts from the media. 51
  51. 51. has been developed as a unique mechanism for increasing financial flows to developing countries for promoting clean technologies that not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also contribute towards the sustainable development of the country. Nepal has recently deposited the instrument for accession to the Kyoto Protocol and has thus fulfilled the first requirement for participation in the Clean Development Mechanism. Nepal in the process of CDM 52
  52. 52. A transfer of finances and contribution to sustainable development in the Host Country Developing Country (Nepal) Flow of Finances Flow of Carbon Credits Developed Country CDM Concept: An Opportunity to Reduce the Climate Change Impacts Clean energy projects 53
  53. 53. Climate Change: Impacts and Urgent Adaptation Actions in Dang District of Nepal (2011) • After intensive field based study in Dang district, different issues are found due to climate change and variation in precipitation. • Terai VDCs of Dang have climate induced disasters such as flooding and landslide problems in slope land areas. • Drought is another problem faced by farmers which reduced the productivity of land. 54
  54. 54. Contd… • Study recommended following intervening programmes to develop climate change resilience capacity in communities:  Development of physical infrastructures like access roads, electricity and local market infrastructures fulfill demands of fertilizers to farmers on time which help to increase high production of rice.  Develop physical infrastructure like embankment and check dams to control flooding.  Forest management program and control mechanism of degradation of forest resources. 55
  55. 55. Public Health Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal. 56 Joshi HD, Dhimal B, Dhimal M, Bhusal CL. J Nepal Health Res Counc 2011 April;9(18):71-5.
  56. 56. The noncommunicable diseases: effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (S. Friel et al, 2011) Sector Strategy Climate change implication Pathways for climate change to NCDs NCD risk Energy Reduce household use of solid (biomass) fuels Mitigation: reduce GHG emissions Reduced indoor air pollution • Reduced CVD • Reduced respiratory diseases • Reduced COPD Urban planning Improve walking and cycling infrastructure Mitigation: reduce GHG emissions Increased active transport, physical activity • Reduced CVD • Reduced obesity • Reduced respiratory diseases Food and agricultur e Support rural development: new food production techniques, rural livelihoods Adaptation: Improve resilience to climate change Improved and expanded supply of nutritional food sources •Decreased undernutrition and improved resilience to NCDs 57
  57. 57. Vulnerability • “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report 2007 (IPCC AR4, 2007) 58
  58. 58. Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity) Background (contd.) 59
  59. 59. Definition of Vulnerability (cont.) Vulnerability = susceptibility to adverse effects + inability to adapt 60
  60. 60. 61 Vulnerable Groups of Climate Change Impact: - By location: rivers banks, steep slopes, slums and squatter settlements & remote areas - By social groups: poor, women and children, disabled, and refugees - By occupation groups: those working in hazard activities such as garment, carpet, brick kilns, stone crushing Determinants of Vulnerability • Character, magnitude, and rate of climate change • Sensitivity to climate change • Coping capacity (adaptation)
  61. 61. Adaptation and Mitigation Global Environmental Changes, affecting: • Climate • Water • Food yields • Other materials • Physical envtl. safety • Microbial patterns • Cultural assets Natural processes and forcings Impacts on human society: • Livelihoods • Economic productivity • Social stability • Health Human society: • Culture, institutions • Economic activity • Demography Adaptation: Reduce impacts Human pressure on environment Mitigation: Reduce pressure on environment Mitigation for health sector: to promote and support initiatives that protect health by reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation for health sector: strengthen prevention, surveillance and early warning systems pertaining to climate sensitive diseases 62
  62. 62. References • Dhimal M, Bhusal CL. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health and Adaptation Strategies for Nepal. J Nepal Health Research Council 2009 Oct;7(15):140-141. • Badu M. Assessing the impact of climate change on human health: status and trends of malaria and diarrhea with respect to temperature and rainfall variability in nepal. Kathmandu University Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology VOL. 9, No. I, July, 2013, pp 96-105. • Climate change and public health in UTAH. The Great Seal of the State of UTAH. • Report of national workshop on Climate change and human health: Potential impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Nepal. NHRC. • WHO. Climate Change, extreme weather events and public health- meeting report. 2010 november 29-30; Bonn Germany. 63
  63. 63. References (II) • Climate change and human health: Impacts, vulnerability and public health. Journal of the Royal Institute of Public Health (2006); 120, 585– 596. • Thapa K.B. Climate Change: Impacts and Urgent Adaptation Actions in Dang district of Nepal. 2011 November 8. • S. Friel et al. Climate Change, Noncommunicable Diseases and Development: The Relationships and Common Policy Opportunities. Annual Review Public Health Journal. 2011.32:133-47. • Huss J.J, McDowells J. Z., Luber G. Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience. Environ Health Perspect 120:171– 179 (2012). • Joshi HD, Dhimal B, Dhimal M, Bhusal CL. Public Health Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal. J Nepal Health Res Counc 2011 April;9(18):71-5. 64
  64. 64. References (III) • Mills J.N., Gage K.L., Khan S.A. Potential Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases: A Review and Proposed Research Plan. Environmental health perspectives. 118:1507–1514;2010. • D. Sabrina (ICCG). Tackling climate change in cities: The role of best practices. ICCG Reflection No. 23/May 2014. • Madhav Karki, Pradip Mool and Arun Shrestha: Climate Change and its Increasing Impacts in Nepal, ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal, 65
  65. 65. Thank U Discussion ??? 66