Assessing the challenge for skills providers in regional Australia. A review of labour market efficiency and economic diversity in regional Australia. Case studies of employment market change in three regions - Northern Territory, Warrnambool/SW Victoria and Toowoomba emphasising structural shifts in regional employment. Skills, migration and mobility are identified as the facilitators of structural change in labour markets - as a result if skills system can't support local workers to transition with demand then adjustment is exacerbated. Thin markets, capacity to pay, qualification flexibility, engagement with mobility and the skills funding system are challenges for meeting regional labour market skills needs. Jack Archer Regional Australia Institute, presentation to Skilling Australia Summit 2014

1. Preparing for the future:
The changing workforce and
meeting skills demand in regional
Australia
Jack Archer
General Manager Research and
Policy
SKILLING AUSTRALIA SUMMIT

2. OVERVIEW
[In]Sight – Australia’s regional competitiveness index
National view of local labour market efficiency
Structural workforce change 08-14 – illustrative examples
Likely future pressures and opportunities
Imperatives for the skills system

3. WHAT IS THE REGIONAL AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE
The Regional Australia Institute exists to create a vibrant
future for regional Australia - for the benefit of all
Australians
Informed by both research and ongoing dialogue with the
community, we develop policy and advocate for change to
build a stronger economy and a better quality of life in
regional Australia

4. [In]Sight – Australia’s Regional Competitiveness Index
insight.regionalaustralia.org.au
Data and rankings
10 themes
59 Indicators
560 LGAs
55 RDAs

5. [IN]SIGHT - LABOUR MARKET EFFICIENCY 2011-12
Indicators:
- Unemployment
- Youth
unemployment
- Participation
- Skilled labour
- Welfare
Dependence

7. NORTHERN TERRITORY OUTBACK - SUBSTANTIAL
GROWTH, INEFFICIENT MARKET
38%
230%
Source: ABS Regional Labour Force 05/14, RAI Analysis
55%
106%
89%
-76%
11.9
2.3 2.2 1.9
0.8
-1.3
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
% Change in Sector Change FTE

8. WARNAMBOOL/SW VICTORIA REGION
EMPLOYMENT 2008-14
CROSS SECTOR DECLINE
Source: ABS Regional Labour Force 05/14, RAI Analysis
-83%
-14%
-21%
-42%
0%
-0.5 -0.5 -10%
-1
-2.6
0
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-3.5
-4
-4.5
-4.3 -5
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
Change 08-14 (% of sector) FTE Change 08-14 (no. of jobs)

9. TOOWOOMBA REGION 2008-14 EMPLOYMENT
MODERATE GROWTH, BIG STRUCTURAL SHIFT
-50% -42%
Source: ABS Regional Labour Force 05/14, RAI Analysis
0%
94%
500%
1%
-1.5
-2.7
0
3.3
2
0.5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
-200%
-300%
-400%
FTE Change (% of 08 Workforce) FTE Change (Positions)

10. AUSTRALIA’S CURRENT, NEXT AND FUTURE WAVES OF
ECONOMIC GROWTH 2013-2033

11. POSSIBLE NEW DEMAND – A MUD MAP
Mi Mi
Regional cities:
• Health
• International
education
Ag
Ag
Ag
Ag
Ag
Ag
Ag
G
Mi
Ag
Ag
Ag
Ag Ag
Ag
G
G
G
G
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T

12. RESPONDING TO CHANGING REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT
DEMAND
Skills
Migration Mobility

13. CHALLENGES
1. Thin markets
2. Capacity to pay
3. Flexibility of qualifications
4. Active engagement with mobility
5. Multiple funding (and compliance) systems

14. www.regionalaustralia.org.au
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