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Weekly Market Report

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Weekly Market Report

  1. 1. 9,731.56 Close Qatar (QE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman Bahrain 9,652.35 2,910.08 3,882.45 8,170.75 7,954.46 6,667.69 1,202.88 9,693.93 5,000,000 9,652.35 9,600 0 20-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct Volume Value Traded (QR mn) QE Index Week ended Oct 10, 2013 1,061.1 522,486.1 528,495.0 (1.1) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) Volume (mn) Chg. % 41.6 34.2 Market Indices Close Total Return 13,790.99 All Share Index 2,422.95 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,296.82 Industrials 3,123.33 Transportation 1,804.69 Real Estate 1,805.55 Insurance 2,324.81 Telecoms 1,429.17 Consumer 5,867.11 Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,781.44 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 2.8% 2.4% 16.5 42 0.0 18:23 Market Breadth 35.2 13,075 42 Companies Traded 25.3 15,235 Number of Transactions 15:25 – WTD% (0.7) (0.9) (2.4) (0.0) 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.1 (0.5) (0.2) MTD% 0.5 0.2 (1.8) 2.3 1.9 3.3 4.1 (1.0) (0.1) 0.8 YTD% 21.9 20.3 17.8 18.9 34.6 12.0 18.4 34.2 25.6 11.8 2.4% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% (1.0%) (3.5%) Qatar (0.0%) (0.7%) Oman 4.0% 24-Oct Week ended Oct 24, 2013 1,502.1 Market Indicators Foreign institutions turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR40.9mn versus net buying of QR7.1mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained net sellers, selling QR70.9mn versus QR56.3mn the week before. Regional Indices 9,723.64 9,700 Bahrain Trading volume increased by 35.18% to reach 34.2mn shares vs. 25.3mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions rose by 16.52% to reach 15,235 transactions versus 13,075 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 27.20% of the total. 9,751.89 Abu Dhabi Trading value during the week increased by 41.56% to reach QR1.50bn vs. QR1.06bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 28.36% of the total equity trading value. 10,000,000 Saudi Arabia On the banking sector front, Doha Bank (DHBK) reported a net profit of QR328.6 million (mn) for 3Q2013, down 6.9% QoQ. Interest expense for the quarter was up 13.7% QoQ. The stellar growth in deposits (17.7% QoQ) also contributed to higher interest expenses, in our view. On the other hand, interest income only increased by 2.5% QoQ. Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) posted a net profit (to equity) of QR345.1mn in 3Q2013. Profitability was driven by net financing income (+9.6% QoQ). Moreover, income from investing activities (QR226.7mn) expanded by 11.8% QoQ. However, net fees & commissions contracted by 9.9% QoQ. The loan book expanded but deposit book was down slightly (QoQ). QIBK‟s loan book expanded by 4.9% QoQ (+0.5% YTD). Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK) posted a net profit of QR202.9mn in 3Q2013 vs. QR180.3mn in 2Q2013, implying a growth of 12.5% QoQ. The QoQ growth in earnings was mainly due to higher income from share of results from associates, lower foreign exchange loss on translation of investment in associates and lower provisions. 9,800 Kuwait The third quarter earnings (3Q2013) season has been weakerthan-expected, so far. Industries Qatar (IQCD) reported results that missed our estimates/consensus. IQCD reported QR1.77bn in net income down 12% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and down 32% yearover-year (YoY) in 3Q2013. Overall group EBITDA declined by around 13% sequentially to QR1.8bn. QE Index and Volume Dubai Market Review and Outlook The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index lost 71.17 points, or 0.73%, during the week, to close at 9,652.35 points. Market capitalization decreased by 1.14% to reach QR522.5 billion (bn) as compared to QR528.5 at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 18 companies ended the week higher while 23 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Co. (QGRI) was the best performing stock with a gain of 3.83%; the stock is up 23.91% year-to-date (YTD). Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Co. (QCFS) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 9.98%; the stock is down 22.32% YTD. WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield (0.7) 2.8 1.0 2.4 2.4 (0.0) 0.7 0.5 5.3 1.0 2.6 2.4 0.3 0.7 15.5 79.4 47.6 20.1 34.0 15.7 12.9 412.14 1,464.01 480.09 6,986.51 799.92 132.42 6.20 143,526.9 70,172.06 111,265.9 436,566.0# 136,935.2 23,714.4 17,862.3 12.1 16.9 10.9 16.6 19.2 10.9 8.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 4.7 3.1 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 4.0 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of October 23, 2013) Page 1 of 5
  2. 2. News Market & Corporate News  IQCD reports weaker-than-expected 3Q2013 results. In-line with the general trend, seen thus far, of weaker-than-expected 3Q results posted by Qatari companies, IQCD reported results that missed our estimates/consensus. IQCD reported QR1.77bn in net income (-12% QoQ, -32% YoY). A significant drop in fertilizer profitability and a weaker-than-expected topline contribution from steel led to the earnings miss, in our view. Overall group EBITDA declined by around 13% sequentially to QR1.8bn. Petrochemicals benefited from improved pricing and lack of shutdowns, as expected. Revenue of QR1.4bn increased by ~24% QoQ with net profit rising by ~22% to around QR1bn. Improvement in LDPE and MTBE prices along with volume growth (15/20 day unplanned shutdowns in LDPE/MTBE lines in 2Q) boosted results. Fertilizers were affected by lower urea prices along with planned maintenancerelated downtime. Revenue of QAR1.3bn fell 22% QoQ, tracking the decline in realized urea prices. Net profit of QR334mn (-54% QoQ), was also well below our model. Besides weaker urea prices, volumes were also hurt by planned downtime (ammonia: 28 days, urea: 23 days), According to IQCD, its urea prices declined by more than 21% QoQ (~$80/MT) to close at a 3-year low of $293/MT, which was down more than $100/MT since early-2013. Steel segment impacted by volume decline. Revenue of QAR1.3bn declined ~6% QoQ with volumes impacted by 72 days of planned/unplanned maintenance-related downtime (vs. 52 days in 2Q). Revenue was also impacted as DRI/HBI stocks were reserved for the EF5 Greenfield steel melt shop (resulting in ~169,000 MT and ~17,000 MT, respectively, in lower sales volume). Net profit declined ~10% QoQ to ~QR402mn with margins still robust at ~30% (vs. ~31% in 2Q2013 and ~32% in 1Q2013). (QNBFS Research, QE)  DHBK 3Q2013 net income misses estimates – Doha Bank (DHBK) reported a net profit of QR328.6mn for 3Q2013, down 6.9% QoQ. Interest expense for the quarter was up 13.7% QoQ. The stellar growth in deposits (17.7% QoQ) also contributed to higher interest expenses, in our view. On the other hand, interest income only increased by 2.5% QoQ. Net fees and commissions declined by 9.4% QoQ. On the provisions front, the bank recorded combined provisions (loans and investments) of QR75.0mn in 3Q2013 vs. QR48.6mn in 2Q2013. Customer deposits increase by 17.7% QoQ. The loan book grew by 7.6% QoQ (+15.3% YTD) while deposits gained by 17.7% QoQ (16.6% YTD). This led to a LTD of 97% at the end of 3Q2013 vs. 106% at the end of 2Q2013. (QNBFS Research, QE)  QIBK 3Q2013 results in line with our estimates – QIBK posted a net profit (to equity) of QR345.1mn in 3Q2013. Net income increased by 1.8% QoQ. Profitability was driven by net financing income (+9.6% QoQ). Moreover, income from investing activities (QR226.7mn) expanded by 11.8% QoQ. However, net fees & commissions contracted by 9.9% QoQ. The loan book expanded but deposit book was down slightly (QoQ). QIBK‟s loan book expanded by 4.9% QoQ (+0.5% YTD). Equity of unrestricted investment account holders (URIA) ticked up by 1.3% QoQ (-1.9% YTD). However, customers‟ deposits in current account dropped by 8.5% QoQ (+33.7% YTD). Customer deposits and URIA combined declined by 1.5% QoQ (+5.6% YTD). Hence, the loan-to-deposit ratio increased to 95% vs. 89% at the end of 2Q2013. In terms of the investment book, total investments increased by 2.1% QoQ. Growth was driven by fixed income securities (+2.6% QoQ) while equity investments receded by 2% QoQ. (QNBFS Research, QE)  GWCS 3Q2013 Results hit by higher expenses and provisions – Gulf Warehousing reported a net profit of QR22.7mn vs. QR31.4mn in 2Q2013. However, for the nine months of 2013, the bottom-line is up 24.5% YoY. Increased cost/expenses and provisions for Imdad. Overall revenue came in line. However, direct costs increased 11.9% QoQ, which was above our estimates. Furthermore, general and administrative (G&A) expenses increased by 201.6% QoQ to QR8.2mn vs. QR2.7mn in 2Q2013 (this line item has been volatile in the past as well). On the Imdad front, the company booked a provision of QR2.4mn vs. QR0.2mn in 2Q2013 (we do not forecast provisions). We maintain our estimates with a price target of QR40.53. (QNBFS Research, QE)  UDCD reports net profit of QR180.4mn in 3Q2013 – United Development Company (UDCD) has reported a net profit of QR180.4mn in 3Q2013, reflecting an increase of 55.5% QoQ (+51.9% YoY). Revenue fell by 32.8% QoQ (-31.1% YoY) to QR513mn in 3Q2013. The main driver of profitability was a 48.6% QoQ (-51.4% YoY) drop in COGS. EPS amounted to QR1.50 for the nine months ended September 30, 2013 as compared to QR1.24 for the corresponding period in 2012. (QE)  QNCD posts a net profit of QR86.5mn in 3Q2013 – Qatar National Cement (QNCD) posted a net profit of QR86.5mn in 3Q2013 vs. QR116.9mn in 2Q2013. The decline is on the back of lower sales, which is down 22.4% QoQ to QR208mn vs. QR268mn in 2Q2013. We believe Ramadan and the summer break led to a decline in sales volume. (QNBFS Research, QE)  QIIK 3Q2013 net income up 12.5% QoQ – QIIK (Qatar International Islamic Bank) posted a net profit of QR202.9mn in 3Q2013. QIIK posted QR180.3mn in 2Q2013, implying a growth of 12.5% QoQ. The QoQ growth in earnings was mainly due to higher income from share of results from associates, lower foreign exchange loss on translation of investment in associates and lower provisions vs. our estimates. The loan book and deposits expanded on a QoQ and YTD basis. QIIK‟s loan book grew by 9.3% QoQ (+44.5% YTD), while total deposits (URIA & current accounts) grew by 12.9% QoQ (+24.9% YTD). However, the improved loan book did not make a significant impact on income from financing activities, which expanded by only 1.9% (QIIK has been aggressively targeting the public sector in the last few quarters). On the other hand, share of unrestricted investment account holders (URIA) increased by 13.0% QoQ. Hence, net financing income declined by 2.3% QoQ. Furthermore, income from investing activities declined by 18.8% QoQ. We maintain our estimates and reiterate our price target of QR57.18. For 2013 and 2014, we expect QIIK to post earnings of QR729mn and QR782mn, respectively. We feel the bank will increase DPS to QR3.75 for 2013 (QR3.50 DPS for the last two years). (QNBFS Research, QE)  QNB Group issues dual-tranche dollar denominated bonds – QNB Group issued a $1.5bn dual-tranche dollar denominated bonds. The group issued a $750mn three-year floating rate notes. QNB Group also issued a $750mn five-year, fixed-rate tranche. The group mandated HSBC Holdings, Standard Chartered, JP Morgan Chase, Royal Bank of Scotland and its own investment banking arm for this sale. (QE) Page 2 of 5
  3. 3. Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners 0.0% 6.0% 4.0% -4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 3.2% -5.6% -5.3% -4.6% -4.9% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% -8.0% -10.0% 0.0% -12.0% Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Barwa Real Estate Milaha Qatar Insurance Salam International Investment Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Widam Food Co. Medicare Group Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) 260.0 Qatar Cinema Qatar German QNB Group & Film Co. for Distribution Medical Devices Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 253.7 6.0 5.3 4.6 195.0 4.0 142.1 127.9 130.0 3.3 127.5 2.5 102.3 2.2 2.0 65.0 0.0 0.0 Industries Qatar Barwa Real Estate Medicare Group QNB Group Commercial Bank of Qatar Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Barwa Real Estate Salam International Investment United Development Medicare Group Qatari Investors Group Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 45 100% 22.84% 25.56% 15.88% 10.18% 23.81% 28.53% 37.47% 35.73% Non-Qatari 80% 60% 582 40% 20% 537 (45) Qatari 965 920 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) (200) - 200 Net Investment 400 600 Total Sold 800 1,000 1,200 Total Bought Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Page 3 of 5
  4. 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index ended on a sour note after remaining flat for most part of the week. The index failed to surpass the stiff resistance of the descending trendline and eventually penetrated below both the 21-day (currently at 9,708.47) and the 55-day (currently at 9,724.53) moving averages. The index also declined below the important support band of 9,700.0-9,670.0, thus signaling a bearish signal. The next key level for the traders to watch out for support is the 9,600.0 psychological level. If the index dips below this level, then the bears may assume control and drag it to test the 9,535.0 level. Any sustained weakness below this level may lead to increased selling pressure toward the 9,420.0 level. On the other hand, if the index manages to cling on to support of the 9,600.0 psychological level, it may stand a chance of moving toward the 9,700.0-9800.0 levels. Technically speaking, the index‟s upward movement will be in jeopardy as long as it trades below the descending trendline and may drift lower over a period of time. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators seem to indicate a potential downtrend. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 5
  5. 5. Price % Change 5(Oct 24) Day % Change Monthly Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield 160.00 (5.33) (4.08) 111,957 12.1 2.2 3.8 Qatar Islamic Bank 66.80 (1.33) (2.77) 15,784 14.6 1.4 5.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 66.40 (1.92) (2.92) 16,430 8.1 1.2 9.0 Doha Bank 54.50 (0.91) 1.30 14,081 9.6 1.6 7.6 Al Ahli Bank 55.80 1.27 0.00 7,091 13.7 2.1 5.4 Qatar International Islamic Bank 56.60 1.43 1.43 8,567 12.0 1.7 6.2 Masraf Al Rayan 29.35 0.86 2.09 22,013 13.8 2.3 3.4 Al Khaliji Bank 18.80 0.32 2.73 6,768 12.5 1.3 5.3 National Leasing 30.65 (2.08) (11.29) 1,517 13.0 1.2 6.5 Dlala Holding 20.90 (0.95) (3.15) 464 N/M 2.2 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.25 (4.15) (5.04) 386 20.1 1.2 4.1 Islamic Holding Group 40.35 (3.93) (3.93) 161 21.7 2.8 2.8 Company Name Qatar National Bank 205,219 Banking and Financial Services Zad Holding 68.00 (1.31) 2.41 890 8.0 0.7 5.9 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.81 (5.61) (1.59) 171 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 12.25 2.00 1.58 1,400 10.9 0.8 5.7 Medicare Group 48.30 (4.55) (0.41) 1,359 22.1 1.8 3.7 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 44.20 (9.98) (11.60) 252 33.8 1.8 4.3 0.11 (0.25) 18,321 15.3 3.1 3.5 (4.87) (5.79) 878 13.4 3.8 8.2 0.37 3.41 2,730 17.9 2.2 5.9 282.00 Qatar Fuel 48.80 Qatar Meat and Livestock 136.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods 26,002 Consumer Goods and Services (0.40) 0.00 1,980 11.6 1.5 6.0 Qatar National Cement 102.00 50.00 0.59 0.99 5,008 11.8 2.0 5.9 Industries Qatar 153.00 0.59 2.07 92,565 11.4 2.9 5.1 31.25 0.81 7.76 3,885 16.7 1.8 2.4 155.00 (2.94) (1.77) 15,500 10.8 2.9 4.7 Mannai Corp. 87.00 (0.91) 2.96 3,969 8.4 1.8 5.5 Aamal 14.20 (0.70) (0.70) 8,520 13.3 1.3 N/A Gulf International Services 56.80 0.89 8,445 14.0 2.9 2.6 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water 13.37 139,872 Industrials Qatar Insurance 61.90 2.31 3.17 7,950 9.8 1.6 3.2 Doha Insurance 25.85 (1.71) 0.58 665 12.1 1.3 3.5 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 57.00 3.83 10.68 3,286 3.9 1.0 1.5 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 39.35 (2.72) (2.11) 672 14.1 1.2 2.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 56.00 (2.10) (1.75) 840 14.2 3.2 6.3 13,413 Insurance United Development 21.60 (2.26) (0.41) 7,284 8.9 0.7 4.6 Barwa Real Estate 26.65 3.29 6.60 10,370 17.3 0.8 5.6 Ezdan Real Estate 17.00 0.00 (1.28) 45,092 N/M 1.6 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.49 0.09 (0.26) 1,149 17.3 1.1 5.2 44,236 13.1 1.7 3.6 7,651 N/M 1.3 N/A 63,896 Real Estate 138.10 0.07 (1.22) 9.05 0.22 0.33 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 85.10 3.15 5.98 9,746 10.1 0.8 4.4 Gulf Warehousing 39.60 (2.22) (2.10) 1,883 18.9 2.4 N/A Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Transportation 18.87 (1.20) (0.74) 10,567 13.8 3.0 5.3 Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar 51,887 Telecoms 22,197 Qatar Exchange 522,486 Source: Bloomberg Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5

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