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QNB Economics                                                                                                  economics@q...
QNB Economics                                                                                        economics@qnb.com.qa2...
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LNG grows in importance in the global energy sector

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LNG grows in importance in the global energy sector

  1. 1. QNB Economics economics@qnb.com.qa 23 June 201220 June 2012LNG grows in importance in the global energy sector Analysis of the energy sector by QNB Group The proportion of hydrocarbons that areshows that global energy consumption grew by 2.5% traded, rather than consumed in their countries ofin 2011 to the equivalent of 247m barrels of oil (boe) a production, is large and rising. This is because there isday. a mismatch between the location of hydrocarbon Oil itself remains the largest source of this reserves and the demand for their usage. The largestenergy, providing a third, with coal and gas close net demand is in Europe and East Asia, while much ofbehind. Non-hydrocarbon energy sources—nuclear, the supply of oil and gas comes from the Middle East,hydro and other renewables—together only meet 13% Russia and Central Asia.of energy demand. Oil is the most heavily traded hydrocarbon, The share of gas and non-hydrocarbons in both in energy terms and in proportion to itstotal consumption was almost identical a decade ago. production. In 2011, 62% of oil pumped from theThe main change over that period is that the share of ground was exported, up from 57% a decade before.coal has increased by 6%, due to China’s rapid growth Only 31% of gas produced is traded, roughly a third ofand exploitation of its domestic coal resources. As a it as LNG. This is partly because infrastructureresult, oil’s share has fallen by 6%. required to ship LNG is more expensive than the equivalent established systems for transporting oil. Global Energy Consumption by Source (2011) However, improvements in LNG technology in the last (million barrels oil equivalent/day) decade have reduced the trading costs. Coal is the least traded hydrocarbon, Oil 33% comprising only 14% of traded energy. This is because it is expensive to transport and because the bulk of Coal 30% global coal reserves are located in countries which need it to meet their own domestic energy demands, Gas 24% particularly China and the US. Hydro 6% Global Hydrocarbons Production & Trade (2011) (million barrels oil equivalent/day) Nuclear 5% 220 Renewables 2% Oil 38% Total 247 (100%)Source: BP and QNB Group analysis Coal 35% 86 International trade in hydrocarbons currentlymeets 35% of the world’s energy needs. Within this, 64%the growth in the LNG trade is one of the mostsignificant developments of the last decade. The Gas 27% 14%volume of LNG traded grew at a rate of 8.8% a year 15% (Pipeline gas) 7% (LNG)over that period, more than triple the rate of overall Production Tradeenergy consumption. Source: BP and QNB Group analysis However, LNG contribution is still smallcompared to oil. Around 6m boe of LNG was traded The growth in the LNG trade is demonstratedevery day in 2011, meeting about 2.4% of global by the increasing number of countries involved inenergy usage, but this is barely a tenth the energy exporting or importing it. At the end of 2011, therecontent of the oil trade. The oil figure is 55m barrels a were a total of 24 LNG liquefaction plants globally,day, including both crude oil and condensates from gas with a rated capacity of 278m tonnes/year (mt/y). Thefields, according to data just released in British actual volume traded increased by 20.7mt (9.4%) toPetroleum’s annual Review of World Energy. 1
  2. 2. QNB Economics economics@qnb.com.qa240.9mt, with two thirds of the increase coming from 2011. India and China saw stronger growth, at 37%Qatar and the remainder from Yemen and Peru. Qatar and 36% respectively. These two giant countriesexported 74.8mt in 2011, 31% of the global LNG currently only import a relatively small amount ofsupply. LNG, but the demand growth and the high utilisation At the other end of the chain were 89 rates of their regasification facilities are indicationsregasification terminals across 25 countries, with a that they will become increasingly important LNGcombined capacity of 640mt/y, up 6.5% during 2011. markets in the future.In other words, the theoretical demand capacity is 2.3 The Middle East was the region with thetimes the currently available supply. A decade ago fastest growth in LNG imports, with a 76% increase inonly 12 countries had regasification terminals. supplies to Dubai and Kuwait, although they only Asia remained the major import market for represent 1.5% of the total LNG market.LNG in 2011, taking in 64% of the total supply, with Elsewhere in the world, demand was weakover half of that bought by Japan, the world’s largest during 2011. In Europe as a whole, imports increasedLNG importer, which purchased 79.1mt in 2011. This by just 0.4%, although that followed an increase ofwas an increase of 8.2mt on the previous year, due to nearly a quarter in 2010. Increased Qatari exports tothe rise in demand for electricity from gas power the UK—which became the world’s third largeststations following the shutdown of nuclear power importer at 18.4mt—were largely offset by fallingplants in the aftermath of the tsunami. LNG demand in Spain and Turkey. These figures are based on data from the QNB Group expects that the LNG trade willInternational Group of Liquefied Natural Gas continue to grow more rapidly than other componentsImporters (GIINGL), the global industry body of the hydrocarbon sector. This will be helped byrepresenting companies that import LNG. GI improvements in liquefaction and regasification INGL noted that the LNG market was able to technology, and as LNG is increasingly used as acope with the demand surge from Japan largely as a cheaper and cleaner alternative to diesel by truckingresult of the increased capacity in Qatar. fleets. South Korea is the second largest LNGimporter and increased its imports by 9% to 35.6mt in 2