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QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back

Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-...
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31 October Daily Technical Trader

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31 October Daily Technical Trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index advanced higher around 24 points (0.25%) yesterday extending its rebound on the back of large volumes, which is a positive development for the buyers. The index is now approaching its immediate resistance of 9,766.28. If the index manages to surpass this level on a closing basis, traders may watch out for a test of the 9,800.0-9850.0 levels, while a failure could see a move toward the 9723.80 level. Meanwhile, the RSI suggests a further upside. The QERI Index gained around 0.44% yesterday to close the session at 2,798.94. The index cleared the 55-day moving average (currently at 2,788.98) and the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past. The index is currently trading close to the 2,800.0 psychological level. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to test and surpass 2,800.0 targeting 2,815.0. Meanwhile, both indicators are moving upward. QEWS breached the resistances of the 21-day (currently at QR157.72) as well as the 55-day (currently at QR158.83) moving averages and moved higher around 1.21%. Notably, volumes were also large on the breakout indicating rising buying interest. However, the stock faces an important resistance of QR159.20. If QEWS can surpass this level on a closing basis, it may set the stage for a higher move and test QR162.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is pointing higher. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back GISS cleared the resistances of the long-term ascending trendline and QR57.20 yesterday. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu Candle pattern indicating an advance toward the QR58.50 level, which also happens to be its all-time high. With the RSI moving up in a bullish manner toward the overbought territory, GISS’ preferred direction seems to be on the upside. However, if the stock dips below the QR57.20 level it may indicate a false breakout. IQCD continued its bullish move and breached above the resistance of QR155.90. The stock has been accelerating on the upside over the past two days and is in uptrend mode since it breached the QR153.0 level a few days back. We believe IQCD could continue to march higher and test QR157.40. Moreover, both indicators are moving in an upward direction and showing no immediate trend reversal signs. However, a dip below QR155.90 may halt its upmove. QNNS finally penetrated above the resistance of QR86.0 after consolidating below it over the past few days. With volumes also picking up at this level, it appears buyers are stepping in. We believe a continued rise toward the upper end of the channel at QR87.0 is possible if QNNS manages to cling on to the QR86.0 level. Moreover, the RSI is holding strong in the overbought territory, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner. Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,757.11 UP UP 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,798.94 UP UP 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.25 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.20 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.60 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 67.60 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 57.10 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 61.90 UP UP 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 30.50 DOWN DOWN 29.50 28.75 43.90 45.00 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 49.05 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 136.10 UP UP 129.90 128.50 138.50 140.15 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 156.50 UP UP 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 159.10 UP UP 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 57.60 UP UP 30.50 29.50 58.50 60.15 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 31.40 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 26.60 UP UP 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.78 FLAT DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 139.40 UP FLAT 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 9.07 UP UP 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.01 DOWN DOWN 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 86.10 UP UP 58.20 56.70 87.00 88.30 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Industrials Real Estate Real Estate Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) Telecom Transportation Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2