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QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral

Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term...
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24 October Daily Technical Trader

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24 October Daily Technical Trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Bounce Back After consolidating near the descending trendline in the past few days, the QE Index declined below the 21-day moving average (currently at 9,717.08) to close at 9,693.93. If the index breaks to the downside, a decline below 9,669.06 may prompt it to test the 9,600 psychological level. However, if the index moves above the 21-day moving average, it may test 9,734.82. The RSI is moving down, while the MACD is about to cross the signal line into negative territory. The QERI Index fell on Wednesday, but found support at the 21-day moving average (currently at 2,788.37) and closed the session at the 2,793.84 level. If the index holds the current level, it may move higher and test the resistance level of 2,815.0. However, a decline below the descending trendline may prompt the index to test the 21-day moving average. Both the RSI and MACD are moving downward. QATI respected the support of QR61.34 and rose by 0.81% to close the session at QR62.00. The stock has breached the resistance of QR61.90 and the ascending triangle with higher volumes, indicating strength in price action. We believe if the stock clings on to the current level on a closing basis, it may advance further to test QR62.50. The MACD is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner, while the RSI is moving higher, supporting a positive outlook. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Bounce Back Doha Bank: Short-Term – Pull Back After consolidating in the range of QR151.0 - QR153.0, IQCD developed a bearish Marubozu pattern, which indicates that the stock may decline from the current level. The fall in the stock has been supported by increasing volumes, indicating weakness. If the stock declines below QR150.90, it may pull down further to test the QR149.09 level or else it has bullish implications. Moreover, the RSI is moving down, thus supporting our bearish outlook. After breaching the 21-day and 55-day moving averages (currently near QR29.10) on Tuesday, MARK broke above the symmetrical triangle and cleared the resistance of QR29.40. Since the move occurred on higher volumes as compared to previous sessions, we expect the stock to test QR29.65. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators are moving upward. However, a move below QR29.23, would suggest that this was a false breakout. DHBK formed a bearish Marubozu pattern and fell by 1.1% to close the session at QR54.40. The bearish candle pattern and the relatively higher volumes on the decline suggest weakness in the stock. With both the RSI and MACD lines pointing down, the stock’s preferred direction appears to be on the downside, which may test the 55-day moving average (currently at QR53.82) if it fails to hold its immediate support of 21-day moving average (currently at QR54.30). Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,693.93 DOWN DOWN 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,793.84 UP UP 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 29.50 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 66.60 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 54.40 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 66.80 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 56.70 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 62.00 UP UP 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 30.60 DOWN DOWN 30.50 28.75 43.90 45.00 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 50.50 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 137.00 UP UP 129.90 128.50 138.50 140.15 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 151.00 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 157.50 DOWN DOWN 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 56.70 UP UP 30.50 29.50 58.50 60.15 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 31.55 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Consumer Goods and Services Industrials Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD 26.65 UP UP 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.85 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 140.00 DOWN DOWN 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 9.05 FLAT DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 18.96 DOWN DOWN 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD) 85.60 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) Transportation *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2