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24 March Daily technical trader

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24 March Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Downmove The QE Index continued its decline for the third straight session and fell around 27 points (-0.24%). The index retreated from its intraday high of 11,398.62 as sustained selling pulled it below the 11,350.0 level. The index is currently trading close to its important support of 11,338.41. Any penetration below this level may lead to a drop toward the 55-day moving average followed by 11,300.0. However, if the index manages to cling onto 11,338.41, it may move higher. Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIIK continued its upmove yesterday after moving above the resistance of QR71.50 on Thursday. The next upside target is QR72.80. We believe the stock may continue to rise and advance further until it trades above the QR71.50 level. However, a decline below this level may drag the stock to test its 55-day moving average. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving toward the mid-line in a bullish manner, thus supporting our positive technical outlook for the stock. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index snapped its six-day winning run and shed -0.24% on the back of profit-booking after witnessing a strong rally over the past few days. The index also dipped below the 3,481.42 level as the bears proved to be more dominant than the bulls. Meanwhile, the index needs to reclaim the 3,481.42 level in order to continue its advance. On the flip side, any failure to move above 3,481.42 may witness further selling, which may pull the index to test 3,458.51. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Downmove GISS penetrated below the QR78.80 level on the back of large volumes which is a negative signal. Moreover, the stock has been registering losses over the past few days since topping the rally at QR86.60. Given the immediate support at QR75.20 is still some distance away from the current price, GISS’ immediate outlook remains bearish. However, if the stock manages to reclaim QR78.80 it may halt its downmove. Both the indicators are pointing down. Milaha: Short-Term – Upmove QNNS moved above the QR93.0 level and breached the resistance of its 21-day moving average. The recent price action indicates that QNNS is likely to advance further and test QR95.10. If the stock manages to clear this level it may spark additional buying interest, which may push it further and test QR96.50. However, a dip below the 21-day moving average may result in a pullback. The RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up in a bullish manner. Nakilat: Short-Term – Downmove QGTS dipped below the support of QR19.50 and caved under selling pressure. We believe although the stock is trading close to its immediate support of QR19.28, it is unlikely that the stock may cling onto it and drift lower to test its immediate support at QR18.96. However, if the stock manages to hold onto the QR19.28 level, it may advance. Meanwhile, with both the indicators in downtrend mode QGTS’ preferred direction seems to be on the downside.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,340.12 DOWN UP 11,338.41 11,300.00 11,400.00 11,484.45 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,477.60 UP UP 3,458.51 3,432.26 3,490.49 3,530.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.55 UP UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 60.50 DOWN DOWN 59.33 58.75 60.92 61.67 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 57.50 DOWN DOWN 57.40 56.20 58.20 60.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 73.00 DOWN DOWN 71.80 70.50 74.10 75.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 71.90 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 72.80 74.40 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 64.10 DOWN UP 64.00 62.64 65.68 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.15 DOWN DOWN 28.00 27.52 29.15 29.95 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 44.55 UP DOWN 44.50 43.20 47.80 48.75 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 160.60 UP UP 159.00 154.90 164.00 165.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 178.00 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 170.70 DOWN UP 168.00 165.36 174.36 176.64 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 77.50 UP UP 75.20 73.20 78.80 80.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.20 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 34.85 UP UP 34.80 34.20 36.30 37.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.82 DOWN DOWN 21.70 21.50 22.00 22.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 140.10 DOWN DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.08 DOWN UP 11.90 11.60 12.40 12.66 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 19.30 DOWN DOWN 19.28 18.96 19.50 20.00 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 94.00 UP UP 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50