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QE Index: Short-Term – Downmove
The QE Index fell arou...
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of ...
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23 March Daily technical trader

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23 March Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Downmove The QE Index fell around 21 points (-0.18%) for the second consecutive session. The index failed to reclaim the 11,400.0 level and drifted down as sustained selling at higher levels pushed the index lower. However, the index trimmed its losses and recovered from its intraday low of 11,329.76 to finally close at 11,367.31. We believe the index may continue to slide and re-test its immediate support at 11,338.41, as long as it trades below the 11,400.0 level. Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIIK cleared the resistances of QR71.50 and the descending trendline in a single trading session, which had restricted its bullish run in the past. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern, which indicates a higher move. We believe if QIIK manages to cling onto to the QR71.50 level, it may set a stage for an upward move toward QR72.80. However, a dip below QR71.50 may result in a false breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index extended its gains and tagged another new all-time high of 3,498.31, but later trimmed its gains to close at 3,485.84. The index has been tagging new highs over the past few days and is in an uptrend mode, showing no reversal signs. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is intact; while the MACD is growing more bullish, indicating the index has further strength to tag new highs. However, if the index dips below the 3,481.42 level, it may result in a pullback. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove IQCD has been in an upmove mode since rebounding from its support of QR175.0. The stock is now approaching toward its immediate resistance of QR180.0. If the stock manages to breach this level, it may spark additional buying interest. This may push the stock to test QR181.40, which is also in proximity of the 55-day moving average. However, a decline below QR178.30 on a closing basis may halt its current upmove. Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Upmove QATI moved above the QR64.0 level and breached its resistance of the 21-day moving average. The stock has been gradually moving up the ascending trendline after it held onto its support of the 55-day moving average. Further, the stock has developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a possibility of a higher move toward QR65.68. However, a dip below the 21-day moving average may drag the stock to test the QR64.0 level. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove CBQK failed to make any further headway above QR61.67 and reversed. The stock penetrated below QR60.92 on the back of large volumes, which is a negative sign. We believe this breakdown of support has bearish implications and provides a further downside target of QR59.33. Moreover, the stock developed a red Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a possibility of a lower move. Meanwhile, both the indicators are pointing down, indicating continued weakness.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,367.31 DOWN UP 11,338.41 11,300.00 11,400.00 11,484.45 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,485.84 UP UP 3,481.42 3,458.51 3,490.49 3,530.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.50 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 60.00 DOWN DOWN 59.33 58.75 60.92 61.67 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 58.40 DOWN DOWN 58.20 57.40 60.00 62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 72.90 DOWN DOWN 71.80 70.50 74.10 75.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 71.60 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 72.80 74.40 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 64.90 UP UP 64.00 62.64 65.68 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.10 DOWN DOWN 28.00 27.52 29.15 29.95 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 45.50 UP DOWN 44.50 43.20 47.80 48.75 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 161.40 UP UP 159.00 154.90 164.00 165.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 178.90 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 171.00 DOWN UP 168.00 165.36 174.36 176.64 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 79.00 UP UP 78.80 75.20 80.00 81.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.60 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 35.30 UP UP 34.80 34.20 36.30 37.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.85 DOWN DOWN 21.70 21.50 22.00 22.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.80 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 139.90 141.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.20 UP UP 12.09 11.90 12.40 12.66 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.76 DOWN DOWN 19.50 19.28 20.00 20.26 Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.00 DOWN UP 91.30 90.00 95.10 96.50