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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QE Index continued its consolidation near the descending
trendline and tested support at the 55-day moving average (currently
at 9,723.63). If the index moves below the 21-day moving average
(currently at 9,722.52) on a closing basis, it may witness some selling
pressure. A rebound, on the other hand, has short-term bullish
implications, which would likely attract buying interest toward the
9,744.42 levels, followed by the 9,750.0 levels.
The QERI Index declined around 4 points (-0.16%) to close the
session at 2,798.32. The index is currently clinging on to the
descending trendline with a support of 2,797.15. If the index breaks
on the downside, the 55-day moving average (currently at 2,793.17)
may act as support. However, if the index holds at the current level it
may move up and test 2,184.66 on a closing basis. Meanwhile, both
the RSI and MACD lines are indecisive.
CBQK tagged lower lows in the last two days and fell 0.74% to close
the session at QR67.00. The stock opened gap-down with increasing
volumes, indicating weakness. Meanwhile, the RSI line is pointing
down, while the MACD line is diverging away from the signal line in a
negative manner, supporting our bearish outlook for the stock. We
expect CBQK to decline further and test support at QR66.50. If the
stock moves above QR67.10, it may advance higher.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
GISS developed a bullish engulfing pattern, which indicates that the
stock may advance from the current level. The rise in the stock has
been supported by increasing volumes, which is a positive sign for
buyers. If the stock moves above its immediate resistance level of
QR57.20, it may advance further. Meanwhile, the RSI is pointing
higher, while the MACD line is diverging away from the signal line in a
positive manner, supporting our positive view for the stock.
QNNS continued its uptrend on Tuesday. Moreover, the stock cleared
the resistance of QR83.80 and moved higher on the back of large
volumes, indicating further strength in price action. Further, the MACD
line is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner, while
the RSI is moving up. We believe that if the stock clears the channel
at QR85.77 it may advance further, or else it has bearish implications.
After a gap-down opening on Monday, QEWS continued its
downmove and fell 1.85% to close the session at QR154.10. The
stock penetrated below the resistance level of QR154.50 with rising
volumes, which may attract sellers. Meanwhile, the RSI is trending
weak, while the MACD is pointing down. We believe that if the stock
falls below QR153.20 on a closing basis it may have bearish
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Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)*
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)*
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
Milaha (QNNS QD)*
Consumer Goods and Services
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Ahmed M. Shehada
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
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