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23 October Daily Technical Trader

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23 October Daily Technical Trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back The QE Index continued its consolidation near the descending trendline and tested support at the 55-day moving average (currently at 9,723.63). If the index moves below the 21-day moving average (currently at 9,722.52) on a closing basis, it may witness some selling pressure. A rebound, on the other hand, has short-term bullish implications, which would likely attract buying interest toward the 9,744.42 levels, followed by the 9,750.0 levels. The QERI Index declined around 4 points (-0.16%) to close the session at 2,798.32. The index is currently clinging on to the descending trendline with a support of 2,797.15. If the index breaks on the downside, the 55-day moving average (currently at 2,793.17) may act as support. However, if the index holds at the current level it may move up and test 2,184.66 on a closing basis. Meanwhile, both the RSI and MACD lines are indecisive. CBQK tagged lower lows in the last two days and fell 0.74% to close the session at QR67.00. The stock opened gap-down with increasing volumes, indicating weakness. Meanwhile, the RSI line is pointing down, while the MACD line is diverging away from the signal line in a negative manner, supporting our bearish outlook for the stock. We expect CBQK to decline further and test support at QR66.50. If the stock moves above QR67.10, it may advance higher. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Bounce Back Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back GISS developed a bullish engulfing pattern, which indicates that the stock may advance from the current level. The rise in the stock has been supported by increasing volumes, which is a positive sign for buyers. If the stock moves above its immediate resistance level of QR57.20, it may advance further. Meanwhile, the RSI is pointing higher, while the MACD line is diverging away from the signal line in a positive manner, supporting our positive view for the stock. QNNS continued its uptrend on Tuesday. Moreover, the stock cleared the resistance of QR83.80 and moved higher on the back of large volumes, indicating further strength in price action. Further, the MACD line is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner, while the RSI is moving up. We believe that if the stock clears the channel at QR85.77 it may advance further, or else it has bearish implications. After a gap-down opening on Monday, QEWS continued its downmove and fell 1.85% to close the session at QR154.10. The stock penetrated below the resistance level of QR154.50 with rising volumes, which may attract sellers. Meanwhile, the RSI is trending weak, while the MACD is pointing down. We believe that if the stock falls below QR153.20 on a closing basis it may have bearish implications. Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,723.64 UP UP 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,798.32 UP UP 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.25 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 67.00 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 55.00 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 67.30 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 56.80 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 61.50 UP UP 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 30.60 DOWN DOWN 30.50 28.75 43.90 45.00 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 50.90 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 136.80 UP UP 129.90 128.50 138.50 140.15 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 151.30 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 154.10 DOWN DOWN 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 57.00 UP UP 30.50 29.50 58.50 60.15 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 31.80 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD 26.70 UP UP 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.97 UP DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 140.00 DOWN DOWN 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 9.05 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.05 DOWN DOWN 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 85.20 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50 Consumer Goods and Services Industrials Real Estate Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) Transportation *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2