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20 October Daily market report

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20 October Daily market report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 7 QE Intra-Day Movement Qatar Commentary The QE Index declined 1.4% to close at 12,962.7. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Banks & Financial Services indices, declining 2.7% and 1.6%, respectively. Top losers were Qatar German Co for Medical Devices and Qatari Investors Group, falling 7.1% and 5.4%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar Navigation rose 1.5%, while Al Khalij Commercial Bank was up 0.9%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index rose 1.1% to close at 9,882.4. Gains were led by the Banks & Fin. Services and Insurance indices, rising 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively. Gulf General gained 10.0%, while Bupa Arabia rose 9.9%. Dubai: The DFM Index declined 0.9% to close at 4,377.4. The Services index fell 4.7%, while Financial and Investment Services index was down 2.5%. Al Salam Sudan fell 8.7%, while Hits Telecom was down 4.8%. Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index fell 1.5% to close at 4,719.6. The Real Estate index declined 3.9%, while the Banks index was down 1.9%.Emirates Driving Co. declined 10.0%, while Finance House was down 9.1%. Kuwait: The KSE Index fell marginally to close at 7,385.3. The Telecommunication index declined 2.0%, while the Technology index fell 0.5%. Hits Telecom declined 8.9%, while Arkan Al-Kuwait Real Est. was down 5.1%. Oman: The MSM Index rose 0.7% to close at 6,901.2. Losses were led by the Industrial and Services indices, falling 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. National Gas declined 9.2%, while Port Services Corporation was down 9.1%. Bahrain: The BHB Index gained 0.1% to close at 1,445.5. The Commercial Bank and Investment indices were down 0.1% each. Inovest fell 8.9%, while Bahrain Islamic Bank was down 3.8%. Qatar Exchange Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar Navigation 95.40 1.5 80.5 14.9 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 22.05 0.9 26.6 10.3 Gulf International Services 111.20 0.5 215.0 127.9 Islamic Holding Group 127.00 0.4 101.8 176.1 Commercial Bank of Qatar 70.70 0.3 327.3 19.8 Qatar Exchange Top Vol. Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Ezdan Holding Group 18.10 (3.7) 2,543.4 6.5 Masraf Al Rayan 50.20 (4.0) 1,319.3 60.4 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. 21.31 (2.5) 942.5 90.6 Mesaieed Petrochem. Holding Co. 31.30 (2.2) 792.6 213.0 Vodafone Qatar 19.45 (2.1) 642.2 81.6 Market Indicators 20 Oct 14 19 Oct 14 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) 505.4 576.6 (12.3) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 701,546.5 710,276.1 (1.2) Volume (mn) 10.6 11.0 (4.2) Number of Transactions 6,095 5,890 3.5 Companies Traded 42 42 0.0 Market Breadth 6:34 33:7 – Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 19,333.71 (1.4) 0.2 30.4 N/A All Share Index 3,288.25 (1.4) 0.2 27.1 16.0 Banks 3,251.87 (1.6) (0.0) 33.1 15.5 Industrials 4,301.46 (0.7) 0.8 22.9 15.2 Transportation 2,253.44 0.0 1.5 21.3 14.4 Real Estate 2,539.43 (2.7) (0.7) 30.0 22.4 Insurance 4,004.37 (1.0) 0.5 71.4 12.6 Telecoms 1,567.83 (1.0) (0.3) 7.8 22.2 Consumer 7,088.48 (1.5) 0.2 19.2 26.0 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,342.70 (1.8) (0.5) 43.0 18.4 GCC Top Gainers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Alinma Bank Saudi Arabia 23.47 6.9 47,311.6 57.5 Emirates NBD Dubai 9.12 4.8 15,048.2 43.6 Hail Cement Saudi Arabia 26.09 4.5 756.4 22.5 City Cement Co. Saudi Arabia 25.92 4.3 3,300.2 12.9 Arriyadh Development Co. Saudi Arabia 21.94 4.1 2,067.2 3.7 GCC Top Losers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatari Investors Group Qatar 48.90 (5.4) 117.8 11.9 Abu Dhabi Com. Bank Abu Dhabi 7.79 (4.4) 5,769.6 19.8 Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi 3.14 (4.3) 24,303.1 13.8 Masraf Al Rayan Qatar 50.20 (4.0) 1,319.3 60.4 Mannai Corporation Qatar 108.70 (3.8) 115.3 20.9 Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index comprising of the top 200 regional equities based on market capitalization and liquidity) Qatar Exchange Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar German Co for Med. Dev. 12.16 (7.1) 187.3 (12.2) Qatari Investors Group 48.90 (5.4) 117.8 11.9 Salam International Investment Co 17.00 (4.5) 602.9 30.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Group 44.00 (4.3) 74.8 56.7 Masraf Al Rayan 50.20 (4.0) 1,319.3 60.4 Qatar Exchange Top Val. Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% Masraf Al Rayan 50.20 (4.0) 67,707.7 60.4 QNB Group 200.10 (0.9) 51,883.8 16.3 Ezdan Holding Group 18.10 (3.7) 46,588.1 6.5 Industries Qatar 182.80 0.2 45,583.8 8.2 Mesaieed Petrochem. Holding Co. 31.30 (2.2) 24,920.3 213.0 Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 12,962.67 (1.4) 0.2 (5.6) 24.9 138.78 192,644.7 17.3 2.1 3.6 Dubai 4,377.41 (0.9) 2.5 (13.2) 29.9 355.90 97,857.7 18.2 1.6 2.2 Abu Dhabi 4,719.58 (1.5) (1.0) (7.6) 10.0 86.42 130,966.0 13.4 1.7 3.5 Saudi Arabia 9,882.36 1.1 3.5 (9.0) 15.8 2,061.75 535,734.1 18.9 2.4 2.9 Kuwait 7,385.27 (0.0) (0.3) (3.1) (2.2) 47.62 110,556.1 19.0 1.2 3.8 Oman 6,901.17 (0.7) 0.4 (7.8) 1.0 14.29 25,782.6 10.9 1.6 4.0 Bahrain 1,445.48 (0.1) (0.1) (2.1) 15.7 0.81 54,002.0 11.2 1.0 4.7 Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Exchange, Dubai Financial Market and Zawya (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) 12,90013,00013,10013,20013,3009:3010:0010:3011:0011:3012:0012:3013:00
  2. 2. Page 2 of 7 Qatar Market Commentary  The QE Index declined 1.4% to close at 12,962.7. The Real Estate and Banks & Fin. Ser. indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling pressure from Qatari shareholders despite buying support from non-Qatari shareholders.  Qatar German Co for Medical Devices and Qatari Investors Group were the top losers, falling 7.1% and 5.4%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar Navigation rose 1.5%, while Al Khalij Commercial Bank was up 0.9%.  Volume of shares traded on Monday fell by 4.2% to 10.6mn from 11.0mn on Sunday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 13.7mn, volume for the day was 23.1% lower. Ezdan Holding Group and Masraf Al Rayan were the most active stocks, contributing 24.1% and 12.5% to the total volume respectively. Source: Qatar Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Ratings, Earnings and Global Economic Data Ratings Updates Company Agency Market Type* Old Rating New Rating Rating Change Outlook Outlook Change Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) RAM Ratings Abu Dhabi LT FIR/ ST FIR AAA/P1 AAA/P1 – Stable – Source: News reports (* LT – Long Term, ST – Short Term, FSR- Financial Strength Rating, FCR – Foreign Credit Rating, LCR – Local Currency Rating, IDR – Issuer Default Rating, SR – Support Rating, LC – Local Currency, FIR–Financial Institution Rating) Earnings Releases Company Market Currency Revenue (mn)3Q2014 % Change YoY Operating Profit (mn) 3Q2014 % Change YoY Net Profit (mn) 3Q2014 % Change YoY National Medical Care Co. (Care) Saudi Arabia SR – – 18.1 4.0% 20.4 8.5% Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co. (Saudi Kayan) Saudi Arabia SR – – 203.9 2.9% 66.9 54.6% Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co. (AlHokair)** Saudi Arabia SR – – 290.4 2.8% 303.7 7.7% Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Co. (Aldrees) Saudi Arabia SR – – 32.0 24.5% 26.6 9.5% Abdulmohsen Alhokair group for Tourism and Development Co. (Al Hokair Group) Saudi Arabia SR – – 40.0 NA 42.6 30.7% Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (YANSAB) Saudi Arabia SR – – 784.5 -18.0% 691.3 -20.1% Al-Jouf Agriculture Development Co. (ALJOUF) Saudi Arabia SR – – 38.2 6.4% 37.1 8.1% Al Kamil Power Co. (AKPC) * Oman OMR – – – – 1.2 -49.2% National Medical Care Co. (Care) Saudi Arabia SR – – 18.1 4.0% 20.4 8.5% Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM (* 9M2014 results, ** 2Q-FY2015 results) Global Economic Data Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous 10/20 US US Treasury 3M High Yield Rate 20-October 0.02% – 0.01% 10/20 US US Treasury 3M Direct Accepted % 20-October 3.90% – 5.40% 10/20 US US Treasury 3M Bid/Cover Ratio 20-October 4.6 – 4.3 10/20 US US Treasury 3M Indirect Accepted % 20-October 22.90% – 19.50% 10/20 US US Treasury 6M Direct Accepted % 20-October 8.90% – 4.90% 10/20 US US Treasury 6M Indirect Accepted % 20-October 22.30% – 41.00% 10/20 US US Treasury 6M High Yield Rate 20-October 0.05% – 0.04% 10/20 US US Treasury 6M Bid/Cover Ratio 20-October 3.9 – 4.3 10/20 EC European Central Bank ECB Current Account SA August 18.9B – 21.6B 10/20 EC European Central Bank Current Account NSA August 15.1B – 32.8B 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 3M T-Bill Amount Sold 20-October EU3,991M – EU39,92M 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 3M T-Bill Average Yield 20-October -0.05% – -0.04% 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 3M T-Bill Bid/Cover Ratio 20-October 2.2 – 3.2 Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari 54.15% 59.20% (25,529,679.37) Non-Qatari 45.86% 40.80% 25,529,679.37
  3. 3. Page 3 of 7 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 6M T-Bill Amount Sold 20-October EU1,692M – EU1,898M 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 6M T-Bill Average Yield 20-October -0.03% – -0.03% 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 6M T-Bill Bid/Cover Ratio 20-October 3.9 – 3.4 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 12M T-Bill Amount Sold 20-October EU1,491M – EU1,899M 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 12M T-Bill Average Yield 20-October -0.03% – -0.03% 10/20 France Ministry of Economy 12M T-Bill Bid/Cover Ratio 20-October 3.7 – 2.9 10/20 Germany Federal Statistical Off PPI MoM September 0.00% 0.00% -0.10% 10/20 Germany Federal Statistical Off PPI YoY September -1.00% -1.00% -0.80% 10/20 UK London Gold Mar. Fixing London Gold Market PM Fix 20-October 1244.5 – 1234.3 10/20 Italy ISTAT Industrial Sales MoM August 0.40% – -1.10% 10/20 Italy ISTAT Industrial Sales WDA YoY August -2.30% – -1.30% 10/20 Italy ISTAT Industrial Orders MoM August 1.50% 0.20% -1.50% 10/20 Italy ISTAT Industrial Orders NSA YoY August -3.20% – -0.70% Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted News Qatar  GISS reports in-line results for 3Q2014 – Gulf International Services (GISS) reported a net income of QR317.6mn in 3Q2014 vs. our estimate of QR308.2mn. Reported net income was up 15% QoQ and 91% YoY. The growth in earnings was primarily driven by the strong growth in revenue (up 14.1% QoQ and 94% YoY). Revenue for 3Q2014 of QR1.12bn was also right in line with our modeled estimate of QR1.14bn. The major growth drivers remained the 100% consolidation of GDI from May 1, fleet expansion and increased day rates. Addition of a liftboat (Rumailah) in 3Q2014 also boosted sequential growth as expected. At current levels, we rate GISS an Outperform with a target price of QR136. (QNBFS Research, QE)  MPHC reports QR1.38bn net profit in 9M2014 – Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) reported a net profit of QR1.38bn with joint ventures chipping in QR1.29bn (more than 93%) in 9M2014. Out of the QR1.29bn profit from the joint ventures, Q-Chem I contributed QR445.6mn, Q-Chem II QR799.85mn and Qatar Vinyl Company QR41.96mn. The group revenue stood at QR3.38bn with Q-Chem I constituting QR1.23bn, Q-Chem II QR1.56bn and Qatar Vinyl Company QR591.53mn. The group’s net other income stood at QR4.24mn and there was a tax refund of QR94.89mn. However, the general and administrative expenses stood at QR9.67mn. Total assets were valued at QR14.19bn, comprising current assets of QR1.07bn and non-current assets of QR13.12bn. Total equity stood at QR14.13bn on a capital base of QR12.56bn and EPS amounted to QR1.1 at the end of September 30, 2014. (Gulf- Times.com)  MARK’s 3Q2014 net income impacted by an one-off gain – Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) posted a net profit of QR522.5mn in 3Q2014 vs. QR471.4mn in 2Q2014, up 10.8% QoQ. The results were below our estimate of QR614.8mn and Bloomberg consensus estimate of QR536.2mn. The miss is due to the fact that MARK partially booked an investment gain of QR74.5mn vs. our estimate QR186.4mn (40% of the total gain expected to be booked in the first year, more details below). Hence, we expect another ~QR112mn in gains to booked over the next three quarters (the timing of booking this gain is at management discretion). Details of the above mentioned sale of investment: In 3Q2014, MARK sold its 50% stake in Seef Lusail Real Estate Development Co. to the real estate arm of the Gulf state's sovereign wealth fund. The sale price was around QR1.53bn, which would generate a gain of QR466mn for the bank spread over three years. As of the 2013 annual report, the total assets of Seef Lusail Real Estate Development Co. were worth QR2.13bn (50% share: QR1.06bn) with liabilities of QR44.59mn (50% share: QR22.48mn), revenue of only QR41,000 and net loss of QR6.4mn (50% share: QR3.2mn loss). Thus, the net book value was QR2.08bn (QR1.04bn to MARK). Furthermore, the payment will be made in three installments: 40% within a year from the signing the contract, 40% after 1-year of signing the contract and 20% after 2-years of signing the contract. MARK’s loan book increased by 17.0% QoQ. MARK’s loan book grew by 17.0% QoQ (+32.5% YTD), while total deposits (URIA & current accounts) declined by 0.6% QoQ (+16.3% YTD). However, income from financing activities declined by 2.0% QoQ. Similarly, cost of unrestricted investment account holders (URIA) and finance expense together decreased by 2.0% QoQ. Hence, net financing income declined by 2.0% QoQ. We maintain our price target of QR46.30; change recommendation to Market Perform. In the recent sell-off, MARK’s stock price has corrected by 9.9% MTD. Hence, we change our recommendation from Reduce to Market Perform. (QNBFS Research, QE)  KCBK posts QR145.9mn net profit in 3Q2014 – Al Khaliji Commercial Bank (KCBK) reported a net profit of QR145.9mn in 3Q2014, up 35.5% YoY (down 2.5% QoQ). Net profit for 9M2014 stood at QR404.7mn as compared to QR398.2mn in 9M2013. KCBK’s EPS stood at QR1.12 for 9M2014. (Gulf- Times.com)  QIBK reports QR404.8mn net profit in 3Q2014, up 3.9% QoQ – Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) posted a net profit of QR404.8mn in 3Q2014 vs. our estimate of QR371.2mn (Bloomberg consensus was QR385.7mn). QIBK posted QR389.8mn in 2Q2014, implying a growth of 3.9% QoQ. The QoQ growth in earnings was mainly due to lower provisions of QR46.3mn in 3Q2014 vs. QR74.6mn in 2Q2014. (QNBFS Research, QE)  GWCS reports QR34.7mn net profit in 3Q2014 – Gulf Warehousing reported a net profit of QR34.79mn for 3Q2014, down 6.2% QoQ from QR38.8mn in 2Q2014. The 3Q2014 results were slightly above our forecast of QR34.2mn on the back of higher gross margin as LVQ Phase 4 positively impacted the operating performance. Based on the performance, we are revising our 2014 and 2015 estimates upwards. We are also raising the 12-month target price to QR62.00 from QR60.40 and change our recommendation to Outperform from Accumulate. Delving into details of 3Q2014 performance, logistics operations (including LVQ) contributed QR118.6mn (QR131.0mn in 2Q2014) while freight forwarding contributed QR51.8mn (QR50.7mn in 2Q2014). In our view, the growth primarily came from LVQ Phase 4 greater occupancy levels. Direct costs were QR106.6mn (QR117.5mn in 2Q2014), while interest charges were QR9.1mn (QR8.7mn in 2Q2014) for the quarter. (QNBFS Research, QE)
  4. 4. Page 4 of 7  Qatar infrastructure spending creates opportunities for international firms – According to senior economists and banking leaders, despite the growing storm clouds over the global economy, Qatar is set to push through billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure investment in the coming years. The nation is set to spend as much as $205bn on infrastructure by the end of 2018, prioritizing sectors such as housing, transport infrastructure, power, water, and sewage facilities. The economic opportunities generated by this investment boom for local, regional, and international banks will be under scrutiny at the upcoming Euromoney Qatar Conference slated to be held in Doha on November 24 and 25. In a special session at the event entitled “Understanding the Next Phase of the Qatari Economic Story,” senior banking figures from Qatar and international finance experts will look at Qatar’s requirements for the coming years and ask how the nation will continue to fund its ambitious growth program. While government spending has provided the foundation for infrastructure investment in recent years, there are growing opportunities for regional and international lenders to play a role in funding, particularly through Shari’ah-compliant financing mechanisms. With support from major sponsors including supporting body Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA) and senior lead sponsor QNB Group (QNBK), the event is set to provide an important insight for finance leaders looking to understand the future development path of one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. (Gulf-Times.com)  QNCD to disclose results on October 27 – Qatar National Cement Company (QNCD) will disclose its 3Q2014 financial statements on October 27, 2014. (QE)  BRES sign an agreement with Ministry of Municipality to rent a land – Barwa Real Estate Group (BRES) signed an agreement with the Ministry of Municipality and Urban Planning in Qatar, under which Barwa rents a land extending over 1,150,000 square meters, located in Rawdat Rashid near Salwa Road, to develop its used-vehicle showrooms project and other relevant services. BRES will develop the project divided into 3 phases over 4 years, and will benefit from the project through the BOT system for thirty years. (QE)  AHCS establishes Aamal Optical Supplies – Aamal Company (AHCS) announced the establishment of Aamal Optical Supplies (AOS). AOS is a new business stream for AHCS, which will own 51% of the partnership, allowing the company to further diversify operations and revenue channels and to capitalize on opportunities in the fast-growing optical sector. The new company has no debt funding. Its capital of QR1mn was contributed in cash by both parties to the partnership agreement. AOS will be involved in the import, manufacture and distribution of prescription lenses, the import and distribution of contact lenses and other eye care products and services, and the opening of a specialized optical medical center in the near future. (QE)  QA to launch Frankfurt as first A350 route, QA Cargo to start freighter service to Stavanger – Qatar Airways (QA) has announced Frankfurt as the first route for its highly anticipated A350 Xtra Wide Body (XWB) aircraft. Frankfurt will be operated non-stop daily with an A350 starting from January 2015. As the Global Launch operator of the A350 XWB, the program will achieve another major milestone once QA receives its first aircraft before the end of this year. Upon delivery, following several weeks of induction preparation, QA will then be set to introduce its first commercial service to the German business hub city of Frankfurt. QA currently flies twice-daily to Frankfurt, and the double pairings will both be operated by an A350 on the route. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways Cargo (QA Cargo) announced the launch of freighters to Stavanger in Norway starting on November 3, making the airline the first carrier to operate scheduled freighters to the Norwegian energy capital. Stavanger will be served once a week by an Airbus A330F freighter, with the aircraft making a stop at Brussels before heading to Stavanger Airport and then returning to Doha. (Bloomberg, Gulf- Times.com)  QA, S7 Airlines launch new codeshare arrangement – Qatar Airways (QA) and S7 Airlines have strengthened relationship with the launch of new codeshare arrangements between the two oneworld member airlines, expanding travel opportunities for customers. Under the new relationship, QA’s passengers travelling to Russia from its network will be able to connect onto domestic destinations such as Sochi, Chelyabinsk, Samara, Kazan, St. Petersburg, Omsk, Perm, Rostov, Yekaterinburg, Tyumen and Helsinki. S7 Airlines customers will also be able to book from Russia to Phuket (Thailand) and Phnom Penh (Cambodia) via Doha. (Peninsula Qatar)  deVere Group: Doha has potential to become world’s top finance center – According to deVere Group, Doha has the potential to become the world’s top finance center, rivaling Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Geneva and New York. deVere Group added that it is time for investors in Qatar to focus more on global equities, bonds and commodities. On the outlook toward Qatar’s economy, especially considering that much of its growth will come from the non-hydrocarbon sector, Tom Elliott, deVere Group’s international investment strategist, said the main risk for Qatar’s bourse is event-driven. (GulfBase.com) International  Germany, France to seek deal on investment, reforms – Germany and France have sought to settle their deep differences on how to bolster a faltering European economy, promising to unveil joint proposals on strengthening investment and competitiveness by early December. They committed themselves to a December 1 deadline, but it was not clear whether the two countries' finance and economy ministers had come any closer on how to reduce France's budget deficit, reform its labor market or relaunch investment in Germany. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who has opposed any big public investment drive, said the Eurozone economy was weakening, so Germany and France are determined to do everything together to strengthen investments. Meanwhile, the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, said Paris, which sent a budget to EU authorities last week that breaches its deficit reduction commitments, faced a big challenge to reduce public spending but would tackle the issue. Sapin further added that the EU's budget rules were indispensable for the credibility of the Eurozone and France would have to reduce its excessive deficit through spending cuts. (Reuters)  ECB starts buying covered bonds to revive Eurozone – According to a European Central Bank (ECB) spokesman, the ECB has started buying covered bonds, opening a new front in its battle to revive the Eurozone economy and keep deflation at bay. The ECB has already given banks the opportunity to borrow four-year loans and will also start buying bundled asset- backed securities (ABS) later this year. By taking some of these assets off banks' balance sheets, the ECB hopes to entice banks to lend more freely again, which is crucial for the Eurozone economy as it relies largely on bank funding. The market reaction to news of the covered-bond purchases was muted. The ECB earlier said it will start buying ABS some time in 4Q2014, and will offer another round of four-year loans at ultra-cheap rates in December. The ECB hopes that these steps will ease lending conditions and generate positive spill-over
  5. 5. Page 5 of 7 effects to other markets, which should in turn revive the economy and help boost inflation back toward its target of around 2%. (Reuters)  BoJ stays upbeat on regional Japan, Kuroda says recovery on track – The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said most regional economies in Japan continue to recover as the pain from a sales tax hike in April starts to ease, maintaining its optimism on the outlook despite growing signs of losing momentum. The BoJ said some regions saw the tax-hike pain moderated by a steady increase in foreign visitors thanks in part to a weak yen, which has recently drawn complaints from the business sector for inflating the cost of imports. In a meeting of the central bank's regional branch managers, the BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stuck to his upbeat tone, saying that the economy is set to recover moderately, although there are some weaknesses in factory output. In a quarterly report on the regional economy, the BoJ maintained its assessment for eight of the country's nine regions and found them to continue to recover moderately. (Reuters)  China posts slowest growth since global crisis; PBoC to advance Yuan convertibility – China's economic growth slowed in 3Q2014 to its weakest since the global financial crisis as a slumping property market dragged on manufacturing and investment, adding to concerns about flagging global growth. The Chinese economy grew 7.3% YoY in 3Q2014, slightly above the 7.2% forecast by analysts but slowing from 7.5% in 2Q2014. The slowdown reinforced expectations that Beijing will need to unveil more stimulus measures to avert a sharper slowdown, though analysts appeared divided over whether policymakers would continue to roll out more modest support steps. The weaker GDP figure fed speculation that China will miss its official full-year growth target of 7.5%, even though Premier Li Keqiang has stated repeatedly that the country can tolerate slightly lower growth. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian said China aims to quicken the process of making the Chinese yuan convertible on the capital account and will allow foreign investors to use the currency to invest in Chinese financial institutions. Hu said China will also widen the number of channels for cross-border yuan flows and shift the focus of monetary policy to one that controls the price rather than the quantity of money. (Reuters) Regional  Ventures: GCC infrastructure contracts to top $45bn – According to a report by Ventures titled “GCC infrastructure Market 2014”, more than $45bn of infrastructure contracts will be awarded by the end of 2014, doubling over the $22.6bn awarded in 2012. The report gives a snapshot of the billions of dollars being spent across the region on five main areas – rail, roads, airports, ports and free trade zones. The report also stated that $97bn of rail contracts are already underway with all six GCC countries working toward completing the planned 2,117 kilometer GCC-wide rail network by 2018. Almost $300bn will be spent on airports in the Middle East over the next five years with passenger numbers among GCC countries expected to reach almost 4bn by 2017. Further, every GCC country is involved in expanding its seaports with an estimated $25bn of ports expansion and investments planned. (GulfBase.com)  IATA: Mideast aviation to grow at 4.9% until 2034 – According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will be the key drivers of the Middle Eastern air passenger market, which is expected to grow strongly at an average 4.9% until 2034. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are set to enjoy strong growth of 5.6%, 4.8%, and 4.6% respectively and the total market size will be 383mn passengers. IATA projected that passenger numbers globally will reach 7.3bn by 2034. That represents a 4.1% average annual growth in demand for air connectivity, which will be more than double the 3.3bn passengers expected to travel in 2014. By 2034, the five fastest-growing markets will be China (856mn new passengers a year), the US (559mn), India (266mn), Indonesia (183mn) and Brazil (170mn). (GulfBase.com)  MEED: New Gulf projects to hit $180bn in 2014 – According to a report by MEED Projects, about $180bn worth of contracts for new construction projects will be awarded in wealthy Gulf States in 2014, the largest amount for six years, despite falling oil prices. In 2013, $156bn worth of projects were awarded in the GCC region, largely by governments and state-backed companies, as most Gulf countries spent on major infrastructure projects designed to help their economies diversify beyond oil. At the peak of the boom in 2008, GCC contracts totaled about $200bn. The current concern for the construction industry is that oil prices could drop for an extended period below the break- even levels, which governments need to balance their budgets. (Reuters)  QNA: GCC a step closer to integration of capital markets – According to Qatar News Agency (QNA), GCC states are moving closer to having unified rules for listing of stocks and conventional and Islamic bonds on their equity exchanges as part of plans to integrate their capital markets. A MoU is likely to be signed by capital market regulators of the six member states at a meeting of the Ministerial Committee of GCC Capital Market Boards’ Chairmen, which is underway in Kuwait. Regulations for operation of mutual and other funds and launch of share promotions are also being unified as a part of the integration agenda. The integration will bolster in a big way investments in stocks, bonds, Sukuk and other instruments from within and outside the GCC region. (Peninsula Qatar)  ANB’s net profit rises 26.93% YoY in 3Q2014 – Arab National Bank (ANB) reported a net profit of SR747.9mn in 3Q2014 as compared to SR589.2mn in 3Q2013, reflecting a YoY increase of 26.93%. EPS as of September 30, 2014 amounted to SR2.25 as against SR1.99 a year earlier. The bank’s total assets stood at SR149.94bn at the end of September 2014 as against SR137.89bn a year ago. Loans & advances stood at SR96.045bn, while customer deposits stood at SR114.69bn. (Tadawul)  SABB reports 25.21% YoY rise in 3Q2014 net profit – The Saudi British Bank (SABB) reported a net profit of SR1.06bn in 3Q2014 as compared to SR845.78mn in 3Q2013, reflecting a YoY increase of 25.21%. EPS as of September 30, 2014 amounted to SR3.3 as against SR2.8 a year earlier. The bank’s total assets stood at SR182.96bn at the end of September 2014 as against SR166.28bn a year ago. Loans & advances stood at SR116.67bn, while customer deposits stood at SR143.69bn. (Tadawul)  NCB plans to convert completely into Islamic bank – National Commercial Bank’s (NCB) is planning to become a complete Islamic bank within a reasonable time as more than two-thirds of its business is already Shari’ah-compliant. NCB’s statement came amid the bank’s plans to sell shares on the Saudi Stock Exchange. The bank’s Shari’ah advisory council has declared the share offer to be acceptable under Islamic law. NCB’s prospectus says the bank will offer 300mn shares to the public at SR45 each, for a value of $3.6bn, while another 200mn shares will be allocated to the state pension agency, bringing the total to $6bn. (GulfBase.com)  ICD, SEAF sign MoU for SME financing – The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) has
  6. 6. Page 6 of 7 signed a MoU with US-based Small Enterprise Assistance Funds (SEAF) to foster the development of small & medium sized enterprises (SMEs) through the deployment of Shari’ah- compliant risk capital. Supporting this, ICD and SEAF are planning to establish country-focused SME funds in emerging and frontier markets of common interest, for encouraging private sector growth. In particular, ICD and SEAF will cooperate on improving the feasibility of SME projects and enabling post- investment support for each portfolio investment and thereby the funds. ICD will also act as an advisor to the fund, including in regard to Islamic finance. (GulfBase.com)  Bawan signs SR550mn Islamic financing deal with SABB – Bawan Company has signed a contract for Islamic financing facilities in the form of Murabaha along with letters of credit for funding worth SR550mn through Saudi British Bank. The company intends to use the proceeds to finance working capital and the company’s expansion. The financing period ranges from month-to-month up to five years, which includes banking facilities accounting for 91% of the total with the remainder funding capital expansion and development. (GulfBase.com)  Maaden plans SR5.6bn capital increase – The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) has invited its shareholders to attend the third EGM to be held on November 13, 2014 to approve board of director’s recommendation for increasing the company’s capital by SR5.6bn through the offering of rights issue. The offer price and the number of shares will be determined by the company during the EGM. The subscription to rights issue shares will be in accordance with the subscription terms set out in the prospectus approved by the Capital Market Authority (CMA). The rights will be issued to the shareholders who are registered at the end of the trading day of EGM. The objectives of the capital increase are to expand the company’s phosphate investment and to continue funding the aluminum projects specifically the Bauxite mine and Alumina refinery. (Tadawul)  ET concludes AED6mn contract with MAF Group – Emirates Transport (ET) has concluded a three-year contract worth AED6mn with Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) Group to provide shuttle services between 83 hotels and 5 of MAF’s malls in Dubai, Sharjah and Fujairah. (GulfBase.com)  Almaden to set up AED110mn facility in DSO – Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority (DSOA) has signed an agreement with Chinese solar firm Chang Zhou Almaden Limited (Almaden) to host its new AED110mn manufacturing and training facility in Dubai Silicon Oasis. Almaden will set up a 15,000 square meter factory in Dubai Silicon Oasis’ technology park. The facility is designed to produce up to 400,000 PV panels every year and will also host a training center for raising awareness on green energy and sustainable solutions in the MENA region. Set for completion in 1Q2015, the facility marks Almaden’s first entry into the MENA region. (GulfBase.com)  Damac signs exclusive deal with Paramount – Damac Properties has signed an exclusive deal with Paramount Hotels & Resorts to expand its branded hotels and serviced living concepts to new cities around the MENA region. The hotels & serviced residences will be launched over the next five years across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah and Istanbul. The new agreement is a major expansion on the current deal, which has already seen four different projects announced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. (GulfBase.com)  StanChart to abandon UAE portfolio sale – According to sources, Standard Chartered (StanChart) is no longer considering the sale of its $400mn portfolio in the UAE. (Bloomberg)  d3, Cisco sign MoU – Dubai Design District (d3) has signed a MoU with US-based Cisco to explore joint opportunities in deploying new smart services and applications in d3 based on Cisco’s Smart+Connected City solutions portfolio. (GulfBase.com)  Atlantis signs enlarged $1.1bn loan deal – Atlantis, a Dubai- based hotel resort, has refinanced an $880mn loan to take advantage of favorable market conditions and secure a better interest rate, as well as reducing its borrowing cost. The hotel’s loan was also increased in size to $1.1bn. Reportedly, Atlantis' new seven-year loan will pay an interest rate of 375 basis points over the London interbank offered rate (Libor). The loan, which consisted of a $750mn conventional tranche and a $350mn piece compliant with Islamic finance principles, was provided by Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Standard Chartered. (Reuters)  Wasl launches Samari Community Retail Centre in Dubai – Wasl Properties announced the launch of Samari Retail Centre, a community center located at its residential project, Samari Residences. Surrounded by a mix of residential, commercial and leisure facilities, Samari Retail Centre is sited in close proximity to Dubai International Airport and Mushrif Park, a large recreational area of green space. (Bloomberg)  Adnec, MCI to strengthen partnership – Abu Dhabi National Exhibitions Company (Adnec) and MCI are in discussions to co- develop strategies that support the growth of Abu Dhabi as a global destination for the world’s leading MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences & events) industry events. (GulfBase.com)  Kufpec launches $1bn loan – Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (Kufpec), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, has launched a $1bn loan into syndication. The deal is being led by a consortium of banks comprising Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ, HSBC, JP Morgan, National Bank of Kuwait and Royal Bank of Scotland. The five- year amortizing term loan pays an interest margin of 130 basis points (bps) over Libor. (Reuters)  KCB loans hit KD7.14bn – Kuwait Credit Bank (KCB) has offered total loans amounting KD7.14bn since it was established till the end of July 2014, with 329,000 beneficiaries. (Bloomberg)  MEED: Oman’s projects opportunities at $26bn by 2015 – According to MEED Projects, Oman’s projects marketplace is set to receive a large boost as the Sultanate ramps up its investment in turnkey projects over the next few years. The year 2015 is expected to witness an influx of up to $26bn in capital expenditure and pipeline opportunities including the latest Duqm developments valued at $12.5bn and fisheries harbors valued at $13.6bn respectively. As much as $145bn worth of projects is currently under way or will be awarded in Oman. Among the projects at the forefront of Oman’s aggressive expansion program are: $26bn Khazzan & Makarem Fields projects, Suwaiq IWPP and Haima Solar Thermal Hybrid Power Plan. Furthermore, $13bn are to be invested in the Takamul downstream project and ORPIC’s Liwa Plastic Project Initiative with another $12bn dedicated for the development of Duqm as the new hub in Oman. (GulfBase.com)  Al Anwar sells 33.63% stake in TFC – Al Anwar Holding and its subsidiary have sold their entire stake of 33.63% in Taageer Finance Company (TFC) to Oman Investment Fund. (MSM)
  7. 7. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 7 of 7 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (* Market closed on 20 October) Source: Bloomberg, *$ adjusted returns. 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 QE Index S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC 1.1% (1.4%) (0.0%) (0.1%) (0.7%) (1.5%) (0.9%) (2.4%) (1.6%) (0.8%) 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman Abu Dhabi Dubai Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%* Gold/Ounce 1,246.93 0.7 0.7 3.4 DJ Industrial 16,399.67 0.1 0.1 (1.1) Silver/Ounce 17.44 1.0 1.0 (10.4) S&P 500 1,904.01 0.9 0.9 3.0 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 85.40 (0.9) (0.9) (22.9) NASDAQ 100 4,316.07 1.4 1.4 3.3 Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.65 (1.9) (1.9) (16.0) STOXX 600 317.01 (0.3) (0.3) (10.4) LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 89.13 (2.1) (2.1) (29.5) DAX 8,717.76 (1.3) (1.3) (15.4) LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton* 108.38 0.0 0.0 (20.2) FTSE 100 6,267.07 (0.4) (0.4) (9.5) Euro 1.28 0.3 0.3 (6.9) CAC 40 3,991.24 (0.9) (0.9) (13.8) Yen 106.95 0.1 0.1 1.6 Nikkei 15,111.23 3.8 3.8 (8.7) GBP 1.62 0.4 0.4 (2.4) MSCI EM 981.50 0.5 0.5 (2.1) CHF 1.06 0.4 0.4 (5.3) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,356.73 0.6 0.6 10.1 AUD 0.88 0.5 0.5 (1.5) HANG SENG 23,070.26 0.2 0.2 (1.1) USD Index 84.95 (0.2) (0.2) 6.1 BSE SENSEX 26,429.85 1.3 1.3 26.2 RUB 40.96 0.8 0.8 24.6 Bovespa 54,302.57 (3.2) (3.2) 1.2 BRL 0.41 (1.0) (1.0) (4.1) RTS 1,056.71 (1.5) (1.5) (26.8) 186.3 153.0 137.7