The document discusses how advanced data analytics will transform project controls. It hypothesizes that there are patterns in projects that could make some more prone to variance. With bias-free data pooling and analytics, projects could be delivered with more confidence, quicker and cheaper. An example is given of how analytics could have helped predict issues on the Crossrail project. The challenges of implementing advanced analytics are also discussed, such as how to manage bias in AI and whether project controllers should become data scientists. The document concludes that project controls is on the verge of significant disruption from emerging predictive and forensic analytics capabilities.

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How Advanced Data
Analytics Will Transform
Project Controls
EVA24
10 April 2019
Martin Paver
CEO / Founder
www.projectingsuccess.co.uk
martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk
+44 777 570 4044

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ExperienceExperience
Fellow
Chartered Project Professional
Chartered Engineer
Professional Accreditation
Sectors
Project Manager $1bn
Programme Director $0.6bn
Portfolio lead $10bn
Roles
Icon credit: Icons8

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HypothesisHypothesis
1. There are patterns in projects.
2. Some projects are more predisposed to
variance than others.
3. Most of this is foreseeable.
4. Bias can adversely influence decision
making.
5. We can deliver projects with greater
confidence, quicker and cheaper.
We can transform how we deliver projects

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Hypothesis: ExampleHypothesis: Example
Study of 1471
projects
“One in six of the projects we
studied was a black swan, with
a cost overrun of 200%, on
average, and a schedule
overrun of almost 70%” Definition
An event or occurrence that deviates
beyond what is normally expected of a
situation and that would be extremely
difficult to predict.
Were 1:6 projects
affected by
unpredictable

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ContextContext
Its already here!

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An Example: CrossrailAn Example: Crossrail

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Exhaust
plume from
project
delivery
An Example: CrossrailAn Example: Crossrail

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What Happens to the Data?What Happens to the Data?

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The Challenges ContinueThe Challenges Continue
An increasing need for transparency

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Data Trust: DefinitionData Trust: Definition
In a data trust, the trustors may include individuals and organisations that hold
data. The trustors grant some of the rights they have to control the data to a set
of trustees, who then make decisions about the data – such as who has access
to it and for what purposes.
The beneficiaries of the data trust include those who are provided with access
to the data (such as researchers and developers) and the people who benefit
from what they create from the data.
It is a legal structure that provides independent
stewardship of some data for the benefit of a
group of organisations or people.
Not wholly applicable in
our case. Stewardship
will be by data
providers
Source: https://theodi.org/article/defining-a-data-trust/

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DefinitionsDefinitions
"Project Controls are the data gathering, data
management and analytical processes used to
predict, understand and constructively influence the
time and cost outcomes of a project or programme;
through the communication of information in
formats that assist effective management and
decision making.“ Project Controls Online
"Project Controls are the data gathering, data
management and analytical processes used to
predict, understand and constructively influence the
time and cost outcomes of a project or programme;
through the communication of information in
formats that assist effective management and
decision making.“ Project Controls Online
Project Controls or Data
Analyst/Scientist?

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The Learning Curve…..The Learning Curve…..
Learning
Curve
Analyst
Or
‘Operative’
Project
Controls

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EVM data
Resourcing
Weather
Supplier performance
Dependencies
Risks etc
Real time
update of
assigned
tasks
WBS
Elements
Scheduling
Corpus and
Context
Extract
Triples
Benchmarking
Adaptive SchedulingRecommendations
SchedulingScheduling

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SchedulingScheduling
Project Controls or Data
Analyst/Scientist?
Question: How critical is domain knowledge?
Templating
Statistical
distribution of out-
turnShortest path
Known
obstacles/challengesExtracting insights from data
trusts

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A once through
process
Risk lifecycle
Leveraging Risk Experience
Connected risks Risks-Issues-Lessons
Informed
risk
registers
Risk
trend
s
Risk mitigations
Risk
budg
et
Systemic Risk
RisksRisks

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P3M Maturity assessmentsP3M Maturity assessments
Audit based vs real time
• Process adherence
• Frequency of update
• Materiality of update
• Quality of inputs
• Correlation with level of experience
Caution: We do not want to create process
monkeys
I want people who
are right most of
the time
• Risk identification
• Risk to issues
• Schedule adherence
• Cost adherence
• Etc….
Forensic analysis on individual and t
performance

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Buying and Deploying Black Box AI
• What is contained within the dataset?
• How relevant is the data?
• How is bias managed and accounted for?
• How was the AI trained?
• How is it validated?
• Governance of decision making: “Computer
said no”
AI will need to guide and inform, but we need
humans in the loop.
Are these humans project controllers or data
scientists?
We must become conversant with these

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Positioning for a New Future
Overall approachData Strategy
Connected Data
Data harvesting
Insights and Lean Predictive Insights

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Project Data Analytics CommunityProject Data Analytics Community
LONDON BRISTOL NORTH-WEST
The UK’s biggest Project Data Analytics
Community founded by
REGIONAL EVENTS
NATIONAL EVENTS
1st meetup Dec
2017
2428 members
ConferencesProject:Ha
ck
Product Demos
1st meetup 2nd April
2019
144 membersHuge
thanks
to our
sponsor
s
Masterclasses
1st meetup 30 April
2019
86 members
In collaboration
with

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Summary: We are Entering a New EraSummary: We are Entering a New Era
• Project Controls is about to experience significant
disruption
• Increasing appetite for predictive and forensic
capabilities
• Project controls training vs data science
• Team and personal performance:
• Process adherence
• Ability to make good decisions
• Securely pooling experience, codified by data
• Evidence based decision making

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ContactContact
Please find me on Linkedin:
Martin Paver
Martin Paver
CEO / Founder
www.projectingsuccess.co.uk
martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk
+44 777 570 4044
Also follow the
Project Data
Analytics Community