Through our network we have had much feedback from various constituents including shipping lines, terminal operators, port groups, infrastructure investors and others in the Chinese port markets, on their expectations for the 2013 container port market. With this brief piece we wish to share some of the main feedback as well as an overview of how the biggest port markets are likely to end up by the end of 2012. For questions or comments please write us on contact@industreams.com.

1. CHINA
2013
PORT
GROWTH
EXPECTATIONS
December
2012
contact@industreams.com
InduStreams.com & Port-Investor.com

2. Growth
es;mate
for
2012
For
the
Chinese
mainland
ports,
or
all
ports
excluding
Hong
Kong,
Macao
and
Taiwan,
the
top
ranked
container
ports
have
seen
an
average
growth
of
7.2%
up
to
and
including
November
2012.
The
difference
in
growth
across
ports
is
substanHal
with
several
ports
facing
close
to
flat
developments
and
others
sHll
well
into
the
double
digits.
These
ports
represented
more
than
80%
of
the
total
container
throughput
in
2011
and
if
the
remaining
ports
do
not
deviate
significantly
the
total
container
throughput
may
well
reach
175
million
TEU
for
2013.
contact@industreams.com
InduStreams.com & Port-Investor.com

3. Opinions
on
market
trends
In
the
feedback
provided
by
various
cons5tuents
these
are
among
the
most
frequently
men5oned
in
terms
of
growth
drivers
for
2013.
§ Exports
to
Europe
and
US
may
not
produce
substanHal
growth
and
might
have
a
negaHve
impact
§ Exports
to
Asia
and
LaHn
America
(and
Africa)
conHnues
to
provide
growth
momentum
§ Low
cost
manufacturing
speculated
moving
to
Thailand
and
Vietnam,
but
many
believe
the
scale
is
limited
§ DomesHc
consumpHon
conHnues
to
rise
but
many
categories
carry
liWle
in
terms
of
actual
imported
transportaHon
volume
§ DomesHc
cargo
(cabotage)
is
growing
and
expected
to
conHnue
growing
§ Government
growth
facilitaHon
officially
moving
away
from
investment
and
export
driven
to
developing
specific
domesHc
sectors
which
could
have
a
substanHal
impact
on
foreign
trade,
but
there
are
many
who
believe
this
might
not
be
short
term
contact@industreams.com
InduStreams.com & Port-Investor.com

4. Growth
expecta;ons
for
2013
If
applying
historical
growth
rates
for
2012
and
5
years
CAGR
respecHvely
total
throughput
for
2013
could
well
get
close
to
190
million
TEU
and
exceed.
In
general
however
feedback
from
the
market
is
suggesHng
that
no
one
is
expecHng
double
digit
growth
for
2013
and
many
see
a
potenHal
very
moderate
growth
to
low
as
a
possibility
for
the
low
case,
some
even
suggesHng
a
flat
outlook.
In
the
projecHon
range
we
have
used
high
and
lows
as
per
the
most
common
feedback
from
consHtuents
in
the
market.
contact@industreams.com
InduStreams.com & Port-Investor.com