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Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
Todd J. Poole, EDFP 
4ward Planning, Inc. 
Darlene Wynne, AICP 
4ward Planning, Inc. 
Jon Reiner, AICP 
Former Planning Director, North Kingstown / Groton, CT 
Dave Caldwell, Jr. 
EDAB Chair, North Kingstown / Caldwell & Johnson
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 2 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Learning Objectives 
Why a market analysis is important for estimating TDR credit value 
What are the steps of a market analysis 
How to talk about TDR with your local boards and the public
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 3 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Presentation Outline 
TDR here and elsewhere 
Project background 
Steps of a market analysis 
Estimating TDR credits 
How to talk to your community 
Q & A
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 4 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Preserve Existing Open Space 
Concentrate Development in Areas Planned for Growth 
TDR is a Regulatory Tool
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 5 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, sending area 
Owner of “sending” parcel 
sells development rights in 
exchange for permanent 
conservation easement. 
Owner of “receiving” 
parcel buys development 
rights to build at densities 
higher than allowed under 
base zoning. 
receiving area 
TDR The Concept
Where Can This Happen Today? 
•Sending Area: 
Sending Area Overlay District 
•Receiving Area: 
Post Road District 
WickfordJunction 
Compact Village District 
Wickford Junction
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 7 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Other Applications for TDR: 
Infill and “Up-zoning”
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 8 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Other Applications for TDR: 
Infill and “Up-zoning”
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 9 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, ^ Wickford Junction 
< What if some of this were residential, not just parking: support the retail, house employees? 
Winter Park Village, FL > 
Other Applications for TDR: 
Mixed-use Redevelopment, TOD Opportunities
Wickford Junction Train Station
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 11 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Wickford Junction Station
•450,000 square feet of potential build-out 
•250-seat community pavilion 
•Both auto-oriented and transit-oriented 
•Anchored by Walmart and Staples 
•1,800 commuter rail passengers daily
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 14 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Setting the Stage for TOD Planning 
•New MBTA train station 
•Town infrastructure 
•Recent Plans 
•TDR and Village Assessment 
•Healthy Places by Design
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 15 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Community says, “Why Do This?” 
•Where do we put the infrastructure? 
•Are we driving people away? 
•What is the market/developers looking for? 
•We as planner had some really good ideas, but we were not the experts! 
•Need a market analysis to make sure we are doing the right thing!
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 16 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Goals of Market Analysis 
•Understand the type and volume of real estate demand for the Wickford Junction Station area 
•Devise a transparent methodology enabling officials to establish the fair price of TDR credits
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 17 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Methodology 
Market Analysis for TDR 
Residual Land Value Analysis 
Real Estate Trends, Supply & Demand 
Socio- economics, Labor & Industry 
Fiscal Impact Analysis
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 18 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Data Sources 
Government 
Local 
Other 
•US Census 
•RecentReports 
•Reis / CoStar($) 
•USBureau of Labor Statistics 
•Development Pipeline 
•LoopNet 
•StateDepartment of Labor 
•Interviews 
•Zillow, Apartments.com, etc. 
•4WP Models
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 19 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Study Areas –2012 Summary 
Washington County 
Providence- Fall River- Warwick MSA 
Source: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 
Population: 
229,236 
Total Households: 
90,235 
Median Age: 
42 
Median Household Income: 
$57,794 
Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000: 
38% 
Percent Owner-Occupied Housing: 
61% 
Population: 
128,724 
Total Households: 
49,634 
Median Age: 
43 
Median Household Income: 
$70,596 
Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000: 
48% 
Percent Owner-Occupied Housing: 
57% 
Population: 
1,603,495 
Total Households: 
626,508 
Median Age: 
40 
Median Household Income: 
$53,554 
Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000: 
35% 
Percent Owner-Occupied Housing: 
54% 
20-Minute Drive Contour
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 20 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, -0.2% 
-0.1% 
0.0% 
0.1% 
0.2% 
0.3% 
0.4% 
0.5% 
0.6% 
0.7% 
0.8% 
20-minute Drive Contour 
Washington County 
Providence-Fall River-WarwickMSA 
2010-2012 
2012-2017 
Flat Population and Household Population Growth 
Source: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 
2012 Household Population (estimated) 
2017 Household Population (projected) 
Annualized Percentage Change, Household Population 
Annualized Percentage Change 
Annualized Percent Change
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 21 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, -0.15% 
0.07% 
-0.13% 
0.23% 
0.47% 
-0.09% 
-0.5% 
0.0% 
0.5% 
1.0% 
0.50% 
0.78% 
0.36% 
0.06% 
0.45% 
0.13% 
0.0% 
0.5% 
1.0% 
20-minute DriveContour 
Washington County 
Providence-Fall River- Warwick MSA 
2010-2012 
2012-2017 
Relative rise in non-family households 
Sources: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 
Non-Family Households 
Family Households 
Annualized Percentage Change 
20-minute Drive Contour 
Washington County 
Providence-Fall River- Warwick MSA 
Annualized Percentage Change
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 22 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Strong growth in empty nester age cohorts 
Population Age Trends 
20-Minute Drive Contour 
Percentage Change 
2010 
2012 
2017 
2010-2012 
2012-2017 
Total Population 
227,765 
100.0% 
229,236 
100.0% 
228,723 
100.0% 
0.7% 
-0.2% 
Pre-School-Age Children 
10,933 
4.8% 
11,003 
4.8% 
10,979 
4.8% 
0.7% 
-0.2% 
Grade School-Age Children 
26,193 
11.5% 
25,904 
11.3% 
25,846 
11.3% 
-1.1% 
-0.2% 
High School and College-Age 
33,026 
14.5% 
32,781 
14.3% 
30,878 
13.5% 
-0.7% 
-5.8% 
Young Workforce and Grads 
25,737 
11.3% 
26,362 
11.5% 
26,303 
11.5% 
2.4% 
-0.2% 
Early Stage Families 
29,609 
13.0% 
28,884 
12.6% 
28,133 
12.3% 
-2.5% 
-2.6% 
Late Stage Families 
36,898 
16.2% 
35,990 
15.7% 
33,165 
14.5% 
-2.5% 
-7.9% 
Young Empty Nesters 
30,293 
13.3% 
31,635 
13.8% 
32,707 
14.3% 
4.4% 
3.4% 
Older Empty Nesters 
16,855 
7.4% 
17,880 
7.8% 
21,271 
9.3% 
6.1% 
19.0% 
Mostly Retired 
18,221 
8.0% 
18,339 
8.0% 
18,984 
8.3% 
0.7% 
3.5% 
Median age 
41 
years 
42 
years 
42 
years 
0.7% 
1.2% 
Source: US Census Bureau, Esri Community Analyst; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 23 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Notable increases in higher-income households 
Median Household Income 
Sources: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 
Median Household Income 
$69,553 
$81,761 
$62,557 
$57,794 
$70,596 
$53,554 
$0 
$50,000 
$100,000 
20-minuteDriveContour 
WashingtonCounty 
Providence- Fall River- WarwickMSA 
2012 
2017 
+17% 
+16% 
62% 
38% 
53% 
47% 
0% 
10% 
20% 
30% 
40% 
50% 
60% 
70% 
<$74.9K 
>$75K 
Percent of Total Households by Income, 
20-Minute Drive Contour 
+20% 
30% increase in those earning $75,000 to $99,999
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 24 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, 0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
Food at Home 
Food Awayfrom Fome 
Housing 
Apparel andServices 
Transportation 
Travel 
Health Care 
EntertainmentandRecreation 
Personal CareProducts andServices 
Education 
20-minute Drive Contour 
Washington County 
Providence MSA 
Higher than average consumer expenditures 
Spending Potential Index by Geography 
Spending Index 
National Average
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 25 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Top 10 Industries by Employment 
Washington County 
Percentage Change 
2007 
2009 
2011 
2007- 2009 
2009- 2011 
Total Primary Jobs 
44,727 
100.0% 
42,030 
100.0% 
42,805 
100.0% 
-6.0% 
1.8% 
Manufacturing 
7,186 
16.1% 
6,976 
16.6% 
7,010 
16.4% 
-2.9% 
0.5% 
Educational Services 
7,376 
16.5% 
7,477 
17.8% 
6,658 
15.6% 
1.4% 
-11.0% 
Health Care and Social Assistance 
6,091 
13.6% 
6,137 
14.6% 
6,269 
14.6% 
0.8% 
2.2% 
Retail Trade 
6,141 
13.7% 
5,359 
12.8% 
5,262 
12.3% 
-12.7% 
-1.8% 
Accommodation and Food Services 
3,925 
8.8% 
3,763 
9.0% 
3,871 
9.0% 
-4.1% 
2.9% 
Wholesale Trade 
1,614 
3.6% 
1,670 
4.0% 
1,771 
4.1% 
3.5% 
6.0% 
Professional, Scientific, Technical Services 
1,334 
3.0% 
1,330 
3.2% 
1,627 
3.8% 
-0.3% 
22.3% 
Other Services (exc. Public Administration) 
1,582 
3.5% 
1,453 
3.5% 
1,561 
3.6% 
-8.2% 
7.4% 
Construction 
2,184 
4.9% 
1,603 
3.8% 
1,501 
3.5% 
-26.6% 
-6.4% 
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 
1,120 
2.5% 
989 
2.4% 
1,167 
2.7% 
-11.7% 
18.0% 
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 
Five percent below pre-recession jobs level 
Greatest growth in professional, scientific, and technical services jobs
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 26 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, 2007 
2009 
2011 
Providence city, RI 
5,553 
10.4% 
4,900 
9.8% 
5,254 
10.2% 
Westerly, RI 
5,013 
9.4% 
4,576 
9.1% 
4,851 
9.4% 
Warwick city, RI 
4,553 
8.5% 
4,194 
8.4% 
4,291 
8.3% 
Wakefield-Peacedale, RI 
4,639 
8.7% 
3,165 
6.3% 
3,017 
5.9% 
Cranston city, RI 
2,764 
5.2% 
2,609 
5.2% 
2,389 
4.6% 
Kingston CDP, RI 
293 
0.5% 
713 
1.4% 
2,054 
4.0% 
Groton city, CT 
627 
1.2% 
1,095 
2.2% 
1,256 
2.4% 
Newport city, RI 
987 
1.9% 
1,026 
2.0% 
1,173 
2.3% 
Narragansett Pier CDP, RI 
1,102 
2.1% 
1,486 
3.0% 
889 
1.7% 
East Providence city, RI 
951 
1.8% 
828 
1.7% 
843 
1.6% 
Providence is the top worker destination 
Top Ten Work Destinations for 
Residents of Washington County 
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Many Commuting into North Kingstown 
Top sectors are: 
•Manufacturing 
•Distribution 
•Professional services 
184 
businesses 
10,000 
employees
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 27 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, 5,012 
5,012 
5,012 
5,012 
5,012 
5,012 
5,052 
5,052 
5,157 
5,157 
-0.5% 
0.0% 
0.5% 
1.0% 
1.5% 
2.0% 
2.5% 
3.0% 
0 
1,000 
2,000 
3,000 
4,000 
5,000 
6,000 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2014 
2015 
2016 
2017 
Growth Rate 
Units 
Inventory 
Submarket Growth Rate 
Metro Growth Rate 
Flat apartment inventory growth 
Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc. 2013 
Submarket Residential Inventory Growth 
Residential Submarket
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 28 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, 5.6% 
6.1% 
4.1% 
6.1% 
4.1% 
3.7% 
3.0% 
4.3% 
0% 
1% 
2% 
3% 
4% 
5% 
6% 
7% 
8% 
9% 
10% 
S Rhode Island 
Providence 
Northeast 
United States 
Vacancy Rate (Annualized) 
5 Year 
5 Year Forecast 
Apartment vacancy decreased to below five percent 
Apartment Vacancy Trends and Forecasts (Annualized) 
Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc. 2013 
4.5% 
2012 Submarket Vacancy Rate 
Residential Submarket
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 29 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, $1,037 
$1,009 
$1,063 
$1,115 
$1,179 
$1,186 
$1,150 
$1,214 
$1,306 
$1,408 
-6% 
-4% 
-2% 
0% 
2% 
4% 
6% 
$- 
$200 
$400 
$600 
$800 
$1,000 
$1,200 
$1,400 
$1,600 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2014 
2015 
2016 
2017 
Growth Rate 
Effective Annual Rent 
Year 
Submarket Rent 
Metro Rent 
Submarket Growth 
Metro Growth 
Submarket apartment rents continue to increase, but remain lower than the Metro 
Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc.2013 
Apartment Effective Annual Rent Trends and Forecasts (Annualized) 
Submarket 
$1,084 
Metro 
$1,257 
Residential Submarket
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 30 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Demand for nearly 17,000 new residential units in PMA and 1,260 residential units in WJS area 
6,532 
9,881 
13,295 
16,775 
7,603 
8,680 
9,765 
0 
2,000 
4,000 
6,000 
8,000 
10,000 
12,000 
14,000 
16,000 
18,000 
2012 
2017 
2022 
2027 
Weak Growth 
Flat Growth 
Source: 4ward Planning Inc2013 
Net Housing Unit Demand 
Housing Units 
Conservative Scenario 
Capture Rate:5% of PMA 
Affordable to Household Incomes @ 
Units Captured1-BR2-BR3-BR 
Own 
Rent 
$39K & Less 
$40K to $74.9K 
$75K & Greater 
2017 
494 
247 
198 
49 
148 
346 
247 
99 
148 
2022 
665 
332 
266 
66 
199 
465 
332 
133 
199 
2027 
839 
419 
336 
84 
252 
587 
419 
168 
252
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 31 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, 2,204 
2,244 2,244 2,244 
2,289 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298 
-5.0% 
0.0% 
5.0% 
10.0% 
15.0% 
20.0% 
25.0% 
30.0% 
2,100 
2,140 
2,180 
2,220 
2,260 
2,300 
2,340 
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 
Growth Rate 
Square Feet (000s) 
Year 
Inventory Submarket Growth Rate Metro Growth Rate 
Office Inventory growing compared to other markets 
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Office Inventory Growth Trends and Forecasts 
(Submarket vs. Metro) 
Office Submarket
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 32 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, $18.89 
$17.77 $17.85 $18.32 $19.08 
$15.38 $14.64 $14.78 $15.25 $15.92 
-8% 
-6% 
-4% 
-2% 
0% 
2% 
4% 
$- 
$5 
$10 
$15 
$20 
$25 
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 
Growth Rate 
Effective Annual Rent 
Year 
Asking Rent Effective Rent 
Submarket Effective Rent Growth Rate Metro Effective Rent Growth Rate 
Decreasing office rent; varies widely by type 
Office Effective Rent Trends and Forecasts 
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Office Submarket 
$18/sf 
average 
asking rent
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 33 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Estimated Total Office Space Per Industry, Sq Ft. (000s), 20-Minute Drive Contour 
2012 
2013 
2014 
2015 
2016 
2017 
2018 
2019 
2020 
Change 
Total Office Space, 
Top Ten Industries 
5,728 
5,849 
5,973 
6,100 
6,230 
6,364 
6,502 
6,643 
6,788 
1,060 
Office demand likely to barely exceed existing vacancy 
Source: Reis, LoopNet.com, NCRER, U.S Census Bureau, 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Office Space for Lease within 5 miles of Wickford Junction, as of June 2013 
Property Subtype 
Number of Properties 
Available 
SquareFeet 
Average Asking Rent 
Creative/Loft 
1 
4,080 
$6.00 
Medical Office 
1 
8,750 
$22.00 
Office Building 
12 
79,158 
$12.68 
Office-R&D 
3 
7,000 
$9.27 
Grand Total 
17 
98,988 
$12.24 
Mismatch between existing space and demand 
10% 
local capture rate 
100,000 sf 
office space 
demand 
(over ten years)
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 34 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, 0.0% 
1.0% 
0.5% 0.5% 
0.0% 
0.1% 
0.8% 
0.7% 
0.0% 
0.2% 
0.4% 
0.6% 
0.8% 
1.0% 
1.2% 
Washington 
County 
Providence Northeast United States 
Growth Rate 
5 Year 5 Year Forecast 
Zero retail inventory growth and a “challenging” market 
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Retail Inventory Growth Trends and Forecasts 
Retail Submarket
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 35 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Declining vacancy rates 
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Retail Submarket 
0% 
1% 
2% 
3% 
4% 
5% 
6% 
7% 
1,300,000 
1,320,000 
1,340,000 
1,360,000 
1,380,000 
1,400,000 
1,420,000 
1,440,000 
1,460,000 
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 
Vacancy Rate 
Square Feet of Retail 
Year 
Occupied Vacant Submarket Vacancy Rate 
Washington County Retail Vacancy
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 36 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, $21.30 
$20.75 $20.62 $20.72 
$21.05 $21.22 
$21.62 
$22.19 
$22.82 
$23.44 
-3% 
-2% 
-1% 
0% 
1% 
2% 
3% 
4% 
$19.00 
$19.50 
$20.00 
$20.50 
$21.00 
$21.50 
$22.00 
$22.50 
$23.00 
$23.50 
$24.00 
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 
Growth Rate 
Year 
Comm/Neigh Comm/Neigh Growth Rate 
Rising retail asking rent 
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 
Washington County Community and 
Neighborhood Retail Asking Rent 
Asking Rent 
Retail Submarket 
10% 
asking rents 
(forecasted)
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 37 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Potential retail demand in select categories 
Net Supportable SF 
Store Equivalent 
Auto & Marine Parts 
31,631 
3 
Book Retailers 
222 
0 
Clothing & Accessory Stores 
(4,513) 
(0) 
Craft and Fabric Stores 
(15,875) 
(1) 
Electronics Stores 
1,571 
0 
General Merchandise 
(203,080) 
(2) 
Groceries 
16,032 
0 
Home Improvement 
(110,528) 
(1) 
Home Furnishings 
(42,484) 
(3) 
Jewelry 
(2,228) 
(1) 
Pet Supply 
14,851 
1 
Pharmacies 
(85,424) 
(8) 
Restaurant 
(40,179) 
(7) 
Shoe Stores 
1,822 
0 
Sporting Goods 
(57,641) 
(1) 
Sources: Esri; BizStats.com; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013.
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 38 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Key Steps for Estimating TDR Credit Value 
•A multi-step process, requiring upfront real estate financial analyses in both areas. 
•Derive the residual dollar value after subtracting all projected development costs associated with prospective development. 
•TDR credits, typically, do not equate on a one-to-one basis. 
In North Kingstown… 
•A derived profit margin is associated with the development of a single-family detached residential unit on a two-acre lot. 
•Based on current zoning, developers who purchase TDR credits associated with sending district can construct up to 30 residential units per acre of land within the receiving district.
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 39 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Gross Sales = $500,000 
Total Costs = $450,000 
Profit =$ 50,000 
Profit/Unit = $ 50,000 
Key Steps for Estimating TDR Credit Value 
Hypothetically, the TDR credits generated by one house in the sending district is sufficient to facilitate the development of five houses in the receiving district. 
Supportable 
TDR Cost = $90,000* 
TDR Cost/Unit = $10,000 
Sending District 
Receiving District 
TDR Credit Exchange Rate with ReceivingDistrict: 
TDR Credit Exchange Rate with SendingDistrict: 
One TDR Credit 
$10,000 
*Based on the project achieving market rate of return.
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 40 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Deriving Sending and Receiving District Metrics 
Sending District: 1 Dwelling Unit 
Average Selling Price: $ 500,0001 
Average Total Development Costs, Expenses & Fees: $ 475,0002 
Net Profit before Taxes:$ 25,000 
Profit per Dwelling Unit:$ 25,000 
Receiving District: 450 Dwelling Units 
Supportable TDR Cost:$5,000,0003 
Supportable TDR Cost/Dwelling Unit:$ 11,111 
Based on the above derived metrics, the typical undeveloped two-acre lot within a sending district would equate to 2.25 TDR credits and would cost an average of $11,111 per credit (2.25 x $11,111 = $25,000).
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 41 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Setting the Initial TDR Credit Value Rate 
Current TDR credit value = ~$10,000 
Recommended starting value = $9,000 
•The value of the TDR credits will fluctuate with market supply/demand variables over time. 
•Setting a range is recommended. 
Demand for 
Multifamily 
Rental; Rents 
TDR Credit Value 
Demand for 
Multifamily 
Rental; Rents 
TDR Credit Value
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 42 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Selling TDR to Your Municipality 
•Do not tell your town what they need! 
•What are their dreams for the municipality? 
•What do they like, what do they dislike, what would they like to grow or protect? 
•What is the town vision?
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 43 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Selling TDR to Your Municipality 
•TDR is a great way to protect open space and get walkable, bikeablemixed use villages 
•These same areas generate tax dollars and economic development 
•TDR is not one size fits all 
•Program should be an option, not mandatory 
•Downzoning vs. incentive based
[Project Name] 
4WARD PLANNING LLC 
October 22, 2014 
Page 44 
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy 
INC. 
24, Todd J. Poole, EDFP 
4ward Planning, Inc. Principal-in-Charge 
Darlene Wynne, AICP 
4ward Planning, Inc.Project Manager 
Jon Reiner, AICP 
Groton, CTFormer Planning Director, Town of 
North Kingstown 
Dave Caldwell, Jr. 
Caldwell & JohnsonEDAB Chair, Town of North Kingstown 
Local developer 
Thank You! Now for Questions

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G4 friday using market analysis

  • 1. Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy Todd J. Poole, EDFP 4ward Planning, Inc. Darlene Wynne, AICP 4ward Planning, Inc. Jon Reiner, AICP Former Planning Director, North Kingstown / Groton, CT Dave Caldwell, Jr. EDAB Chair, North Kingstown / Caldwell & Johnson
  • 2. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 2 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Learning Objectives Why a market analysis is important for estimating TDR credit value What are the steps of a market analysis How to talk about TDR with your local boards and the public
  • 3. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 3 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Presentation Outline TDR here and elsewhere Project background Steps of a market analysis Estimating TDR credits How to talk to your community Q & A
  • 4. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 4 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Preserve Existing Open Space Concentrate Development in Areas Planned for Growth TDR is a Regulatory Tool
  • 5. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 5 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, sending area Owner of “sending” parcel sells development rights in exchange for permanent conservation easement. Owner of “receiving” parcel buys development rights to build at densities higher than allowed under base zoning. receiving area TDR The Concept
  • 6. Where Can This Happen Today? •Sending Area: Sending Area Overlay District •Receiving Area: Post Road District WickfordJunction Compact Village District Wickford Junction
  • 7. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 7 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Other Applications for TDR: Infill and “Up-zoning”
  • 8. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 8 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Other Applications for TDR: Infill and “Up-zoning”
  • 9. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 9 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, ^ Wickford Junction < What if some of this were residential, not just parking: support the retail, house employees? Winter Park Village, FL > Other Applications for TDR: Mixed-use Redevelopment, TOD Opportunities
  • 11. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 11 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Wickford Junction Station
  • 12. •450,000 square feet of potential build-out •250-seat community pavilion •Both auto-oriented and transit-oriented •Anchored by Walmart and Staples •1,800 commuter rail passengers daily
  • 13.
  • 14. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 14 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Setting the Stage for TOD Planning •New MBTA train station •Town infrastructure •Recent Plans •TDR and Village Assessment •Healthy Places by Design
  • 15. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 15 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Community says, “Why Do This?” •Where do we put the infrastructure? •Are we driving people away? •What is the market/developers looking for? •We as planner had some really good ideas, but we were not the experts! •Need a market analysis to make sure we are doing the right thing!
  • 16. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 16 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Goals of Market Analysis •Understand the type and volume of real estate demand for the Wickford Junction Station area •Devise a transparent methodology enabling officials to establish the fair price of TDR credits
  • 17. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 17 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Methodology Market Analysis for TDR Residual Land Value Analysis Real Estate Trends, Supply & Demand Socio- economics, Labor & Industry Fiscal Impact Analysis
  • 18. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 18 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Data Sources Government Local Other •US Census •RecentReports •Reis / CoStar($) •USBureau of Labor Statistics •Development Pipeline •LoopNet •StateDepartment of Labor •Interviews •Zillow, Apartments.com, etc. •4WP Models
  • 19. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 19 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Study Areas –2012 Summary Washington County Providence- Fall River- Warwick MSA Source: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 Population: 229,236 Total Households: 90,235 Median Age: 42 Median Household Income: $57,794 Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000: 38% Percent Owner-Occupied Housing: 61% Population: 128,724 Total Households: 49,634 Median Age: 43 Median Household Income: $70,596 Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000: 48% Percent Owner-Occupied Housing: 57% Population: 1,603,495 Total Households: 626,508 Median Age: 40 Median Household Income: $53,554 Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000: 35% Percent Owner-Occupied Housing: 54% 20-Minute Drive Contour
  • 20. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 20 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 20-minute Drive Contour Washington County Providence-Fall River-WarwickMSA 2010-2012 2012-2017 Flat Population and Household Population Growth Source: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 2012 Household Population (estimated) 2017 Household Population (projected) Annualized Percentage Change, Household Population Annualized Percentage Change Annualized Percent Change
  • 21. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 21 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, -0.15% 0.07% -0.13% 0.23% 0.47% -0.09% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.50% 0.78% 0.36% 0.06% 0.45% 0.13% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 20-minute DriveContour Washington County Providence-Fall River- Warwick MSA 2010-2012 2012-2017 Relative rise in non-family households Sources: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 Non-Family Households Family Households Annualized Percentage Change 20-minute Drive Contour Washington County Providence-Fall River- Warwick MSA Annualized Percentage Change
  • 22. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 22 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Strong growth in empty nester age cohorts Population Age Trends 20-Minute Drive Contour Percentage Change 2010 2012 2017 2010-2012 2012-2017 Total Population 227,765 100.0% 229,236 100.0% 228,723 100.0% 0.7% -0.2% Pre-School-Age Children 10,933 4.8% 11,003 4.8% 10,979 4.8% 0.7% -0.2% Grade School-Age Children 26,193 11.5% 25,904 11.3% 25,846 11.3% -1.1% -0.2% High School and College-Age 33,026 14.5% 32,781 14.3% 30,878 13.5% -0.7% -5.8% Young Workforce and Grads 25,737 11.3% 26,362 11.5% 26,303 11.5% 2.4% -0.2% Early Stage Families 29,609 13.0% 28,884 12.6% 28,133 12.3% -2.5% -2.6% Late Stage Families 36,898 16.2% 35,990 15.7% 33,165 14.5% -2.5% -7.9% Young Empty Nesters 30,293 13.3% 31,635 13.8% 32,707 14.3% 4.4% 3.4% Older Empty Nesters 16,855 7.4% 17,880 7.8% 21,271 9.3% 6.1% 19.0% Mostly Retired 18,221 8.0% 18,339 8.0% 18,984 8.3% 0.7% 3.5% Median age 41 years 42 years 42 years 0.7% 1.2% Source: US Census Bureau, Esri Community Analyst; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
  • 23. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 23 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Notable increases in higher-income households Median Household Income Sources: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 Median Household Income $69,553 $81,761 $62,557 $57,794 $70,596 $53,554 $0 $50,000 $100,000 20-minuteDriveContour WashingtonCounty Providence- Fall River- WarwickMSA 2012 2017 +17% +16% 62% 38% 53% 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% <$74.9K >$75K Percent of Total Households by Income, 20-Minute Drive Contour +20% 30% increase in those earning $75,000 to $99,999
  • 24. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 24 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Food at Home Food Awayfrom Fome Housing Apparel andServices Transportation Travel Health Care EntertainmentandRecreation Personal CareProducts andServices Education 20-minute Drive Contour Washington County Providence MSA Higher than average consumer expenditures Spending Potential Index by Geography Spending Index National Average
  • 25. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 25 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Top 10 Industries by Employment Washington County Percentage Change 2007 2009 2011 2007- 2009 2009- 2011 Total Primary Jobs 44,727 100.0% 42,030 100.0% 42,805 100.0% -6.0% 1.8% Manufacturing 7,186 16.1% 6,976 16.6% 7,010 16.4% -2.9% 0.5% Educational Services 7,376 16.5% 7,477 17.8% 6,658 15.6% 1.4% -11.0% Health Care and Social Assistance 6,091 13.6% 6,137 14.6% 6,269 14.6% 0.8% 2.2% Retail Trade 6,141 13.7% 5,359 12.8% 5,262 12.3% -12.7% -1.8% Accommodation and Food Services 3,925 8.8% 3,763 9.0% 3,871 9.0% -4.1% 2.9% Wholesale Trade 1,614 3.6% 1,670 4.0% 1,771 4.1% 3.5% 6.0% Professional, Scientific, Technical Services 1,334 3.0% 1,330 3.2% 1,627 3.8% -0.3% 22.3% Other Services (exc. Public Administration) 1,582 3.5% 1,453 3.5% 1,561 3.6% -8.2% 7.4% Construction 2,184 4.9% 1,603 3.8% 1,501 3.5% -26.6% -6.4% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 1,120 2.5% 989 2.4% 1,167 2.7% -11.7% 18.0% Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013 Five percent below pre-recession jobs level Greatest growth in professional, scientific, and technical services jobs
  • 26. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 26 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, 2007 2009 2011 Providence city, RI 5,553 10.4% 4,900 9.8% 5,254 10.2% Westerly, RI 5,013 9.4% 4,576 9.1% 4,851 9.4% Warwick city, RI 4,553 8.5% 4,194 8.4% 4,291 8.3% Wakefield-Peacedale, RI 4,639 8.7% 3,165 6.3% 3,017 5.9% Cranston city, RI 2,764 5.2% 2,609 5.2% 2,389 4.6% Kingston CDP, RI 293 0.5% 713 1.4% 2,054 4.0% Groton city, CT 627 1.2% 1,095 2.2% 1,256 2.4% Newport city, RI 987 1.9% 1,026 2.0% 1,173 2.3% Narragansett Pier CDP, RI 1,102 2.1% 1,486 3.0% 889 1.7% East Providence city, RI 951 1.8% 828 1.7% 843 1.6% Providence is the top worker destination Top Ten Work Destinations for Residents of Washington County Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Many Commuting into North Kingstown Top sectors are: •Manufacturing •Distribution •Professional services 184 businesses 10,000 employees
  • 27. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 27 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, 5,012 5,012 5,012 5,012 5,012 5,012 5,052 5,052 5,157 5,157 -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth Rate Units Inventory Submarket Growth Rate Metro Growth Rate Flat apartment inventory growth Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc. 2013 Submarket Residential Inventory Growth Residential Submarket
  • 28. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 28 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, 5.6% 6.1% 4.1% 6.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.0% 4.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% S Rhode Island Providence Northeast United States Vacancy Rate (Annualized) 5 Year 5 Year Forecast Apartment vacancy decreased to below five percent Apartment Vacancy Trends and Forecasts (Annualized) Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc. 2013 4.5% 2012 Submarket Vacancy Rate Residential Submarket
  • 29. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 29 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, $1,037 $1,009 $1,063 $1,115 $1,179 $1,186 $1,150 $1,214 $1,306 $1,408 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth Rate Effective Annual Rent Year Submarket Rent Metro Rent Submarket Growth Metro Growth Submarket apartment rents continue to increase, but remain lower than the Metro Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc.2013 Apartment Effective Annual Rent Trends and Forecasts (Annualized) Submarket $1,084 Metro $1,257 Residential Submarket
  • 30. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 30 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Demand for nearly 17,000 new residential units in PMA and 1,260 residential units in WJS area 6,532 9,881 13,295 16,775 7,603 8,680 9,765 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2012 2017 2022 2027 Weak Growth Flat Growth Source: 4ward Planning Inc2013 Net Housing Unit Demand Housing Units Conservative Scenario Capture Rate:5% of PMA Affordable to Household Incomes @ Units Captured1-BR2-BR3-BR Own Rent $39K & Less $40K to $74.9K $75K & Greater 2017 494 247 198 49 148 346 247 99 148 2022 665 332 266 66 199 465 332 133 199 2027 839 419 336 84 252 587 419 168 252
  • 31. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 31 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, 2,204 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,289 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2,100 2,140 2,180 2,220 2,260 2,300 2,340 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth Rate Square Feet (000s) Year Inventory Submarket Growth Rate Metro Growth Rate Office Inventory growing compared to other markets Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Office Inventory Growth Trends and Forecasts (Submarket vs. Metro) Office Submarket
  • 32. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 32 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, $18.89 $17.77 $17.85 $18.32 $19.08 $15.38 $14.64 $14.78 $15.25 $15.92 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth Rate Effective Annual Rent Year Asking Rent Effective Rent Submarket Effective Rent Growth Rate Metro Effective Rent Growth Rate Decreasing office rent; varies widely by type Office Effective Rent Trends and Forecasts Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Office Submarket $18/sf average asking rent
  • 33. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 33 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Estimated Total Office Space Per Industry, Sq Ft. (000s), 20-Minute Drive Contour 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Change Total Office Space, Top Ten Industries 5,728 5,849 5,973 6,100 6,230 6,364 6,502 6,643 6,788 1,060 Office demand likely to barely exceed existing vacancy Source: Reis, LoopNet.com, NCRER, U.S Census Bureau, 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Office Space for Lease within 5 miles of Wickford Junction, as of June 2013 Property Subtype Number of Properties Available SquareFeet Average Asking Rent Creative/Loft 1 4,080 $6.00 Medical Office 1 8,750 $22.00 Office Building 12 79,158 $12.68 Office-R&D 3 7,000 $9.27 Grand Total 17 98,988 $12.24 Mismatch between existing space and demand 10% local capture rate 100,000 sf office space demand (over ten years)
  • 34. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 34 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% Washington County Providence Northeast United States Growth Rate 5 Year 5 Year Forecast Zero retail inventory growth and a “challenging” market Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Retail Inventory Growth Trends and Forecasts Retail Submarket
  • 35. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 35 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Declining vacancy rates Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Retail Submarket 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1,300,000 1,320,000 1,340,000 1,360,000 1,380,000 1,400,000 1,420,000 1,440,000 1,460,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Vacancy Rate Square Feet of Retail Year Occupied Vacant Submarket Vacancy Rate Washington County Retail Vacancy
  • 36. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 36 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, $21.30 $20.75 $20.62 $20.72 $21.05 $21.22 $21.62 $22.19 $22.82 $23.44 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% $19.00 $19.50 $20.00 $20.50 $21.00 $21.50 $22.00 $22.50 $23.00 $23.50 $24.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth Rate Year Comm/Neigh Comm/Neigh Growth Rate Rising retail asking rent Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013 Washington County Community and Neighborhood Retail Asking Rent Asking Rent Retail Submarket 10% asking rents (forecasted)
  • 37. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 37 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Potential retail demand in select categories Net Supportable SF Store Equivalent Auto & Marine Parts 31,631 3 Book Retailers 222 0 Clothing & Accessory Stores (4,513) (0) Craft and Fabric Stores (15,875) (1) Electronics Stores 1,571 0 General Merchandise (203,080) (2) Groceries 16,032 0 Home Improvement (110,528) (1) Home Furnishings (42,484) (3) Jewelry (2,228) (1) Pet Supply 14,851 1 Pharmacies (85,424) (8) Restaurant (40,179) (7) Shoe Stores 1,822 0 Sporting Goods (57,641) (1) Sources: Esri; BizStats.com; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013.
  • 38. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 38 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Key Steps for Estimating TDR Credit Value •A multi-step process, requiring upfront real estate financial analyses in both areas. •Derive the residual dollar value after subtracting all projected development costs associated with prospective development. •TDR credits, typically, do not equate on a one-to-one basis. In North Kingstown… •A derived profit margin is associated with the development of a single-family detached residential unit on a two-acre lot. •Based on current zoning, developers who purchase TDR credits associated with sending district can construct up to 30 residential units per acre of land within the receiving district.
  • 39. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 39 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Gross Sales = $500,000 Total Costs = $450,000 Profit =$ 50,000 Profit/Unit = $ 50,000 Key Steps for Estimating TDR Credit Value Hypothetically, the TDR credits generated by one house in the sending district is sufficient to facilitate the development of five houses in the receiving district. Supportable TDR Cost = $90,000* TDR Cost/Unit = $10,000 Sending District Receiving District TDR Credit Exchange Rate with ReceivingDistrict: TDR Credit Exchange Rate with SendingDistrict: One TDR Credit $10,000 *Based on the project achieving market rate of return.
  • 40. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 40 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Deriving Sending and Receiving District Metrics Sending District: 1 Dwelling Unit Average Selling Price: $ 500,0001 Average Total Development Costs, Expenses & Fees: $ 475,0002 Net Profit before Taxes:$ 25,000 Profit per Dwelling Unit:$ 25,000 Receiving District: 450 Dwelling Units Supportable TDR Cost:$5,000,0003 Supportable TDR Cost/Dwelling Unit:$ 11,111 Based on the above derived metrics, the typical undeveloped two-acre lot within a sending district would equate to 2.25 TDR credits and would cost an average of $11,111 per credit (2.25 x $11,111 = $25,000).
  • 41. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 41 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Setting the Initial TDR Credit Value Rate Current TDR credit value = ~$10,000 Recommended starting value = $9,000 •The value of the TDR credits will fluctuate with market supply/demand variables over time. •Setting a range is recommended. Demand for Multifamily Rental; Rents TDR Credit Value Demand for Multifamily Rental; Rents TDR Credit Value
  • 42. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 42 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Selling TDR to Your Municipality •Do not tell your town what they need! •What are their dreams for the municipality? •What do they like, what do they dislike, what would they like to grow or protect? •What is the town vision?
  • 43. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 43 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Selling TDR to Your Municipality •TDR is a great way to protect open space and get walkable, bikeablemixed use villages •These same areas generate tax dollars and economic development •TDR is not one size fits all •Program should be an option, not mandatory •Downzoning vs. incentive based
  • 44. [Project Name] 4WARD PLANNING LLC October 22, 2014 Page 44 SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy INC. 24, Todd J. Poole, EDFP 4ward Planning, Inc. Principal-in-Charge Darlene Wynne, AICP 4ward Planning, Inc.Project Manager Jon Reiner, AICP Groton, CTFormer Planning Director, Town of North Kingstown Dave Caldwell, Jr. Caldwell & JohnsonEDAB Chair, Town of North Kingstown Local developer Thank You! Now for Questions