1. Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy
Todd J. Poole, EDFP
4ward Planning, Inc.
Darlene Wynne, AICP
4ward Planning, Inc.
Jon Reiner, AICP
Former Planning Director, North Kingstown / Groton, CT
Dave Caldwell, Jr.
EDAB Chair, North Kingstown / Caldwell & Johnson
2. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Learning Objectives
Why a market analysis is important for estimating TDR credit value
What are the steps of a market analysis
How to talk about TDR with your local boards and the public
3. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Presentation Outline
TDR here and elsewhere
Project background
Steps of a market analysis
Estimating TDR credits
How to talk to your community
Q & A
4. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Preserve Existing Open Space
Concentrate Development in Areas Planned for Growth
TDR is a Regulatory Tool
5. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, sending area
Owner of “sending” parcel
sells development rights in
exchange for permanent
conservation easement.
Owner of “receiving”
parcel buys development
rights to build at densities
higher than allowed under
base zoning.
receiving area
TDR The Concept
6. Where Can This Happen Today?
•Sending Area:
Sending Area Overlay District
•Receiving Area:
Post Road District
WickfordJunction
Compact Village District
Wickford Junction
7. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Other Applications for TDR:
Infill and “Up-zoning”
8. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Other Applications for TDR:
Infill and “Up-zoning”
9. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, ^ Wickford Junction
< What if some of this were residential, not just parking: support the retail, house employees?
Winter Park Village, FL >
Other Applications for TDR:
Mixed-use Redevelopment, TOD Opportunities
11. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Wickford Junction Station
12. •450,000 square feet of potential build-out
•250-seat community pavilion
•Both auto-oriented and transit-oriented
•Anchored by Walmart and Staples
•1,800 commuter rail passengers daily
13.
14. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Setting the Stage for TOD Planning
•New MBTA train station
•Town infrastructure
•Recent Plans
•TDR and Village Assessment
•Healthy Places by Design
15. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Community says, “Why Do This?”
•Where do we put the infrastructure?
•Are we driving people away?
•What is the market/developers looking for?
•We as planner had some really good ideas, but we were not the experts!
•Need a market analysis to make sure we are doing the right thing!
16. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Goals of Market Analysis
•Understand the type and volume of real estate demand for the Wickford Junction Station area
•Devise a transparent methodology enabling officials to establish the fair price of TDR credits
17. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Methodology
Market Analysis for TDR
Residual Land Value Analysis
Real Estate Trends, Supply & Demand
Socio- economics, Labor & Industry
Fiscal Impact Analysis
18. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Data Sources
Government
Local
Other
•US Census
•RecentReports
•Reis / CoStar($)
•USBureau of Labor Statistics
•Development Pipeline
•LoopNet
•StateDepartment of Labor
•Interviews
•Zillow, Apartments.com, etc.
•4WP Models
19. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Study Areas –2012 Summary
Washington County
Providence- Fall River- Warwick MSA
Source: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
Population:
229,236
Total Households:
90,235
Median Age:
42
Median Household Income:
$57,794
Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000:
38%
Percent Owner-Occupied Housing:
61%
Population:
128,724
Total Households:
49,634
Median Age:
43
Median Household Income:
$70,596
Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000:
48%
Percent Owner-Occupied Housing:
57%
Population:
1,603,495
Total Households:
626,508
Median Age:
40
Median Household Income:
$53,554
Percent of Household Incomes >$75,000:
35%
Percent Owner-Occupied Housing:
54%
20-Minute Drive Contour
20. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, -0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
20-minute Drive Contour
Washington County
Providence-Fall River-WarwickMSA
2010-2012
2012-2017
Flat Population and Household Population Growth
Source: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
2012 Household Population (estimated)
2017 Household Population (projected)
Annualized Percentage Change, Household Population
Annualized Percentage Change
Annualized Percent Change
21. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, -0.15%
0.07%
-0.13%
0.23%
0.47%
-0.09%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
0.50%
0.78%
0.36%
0.06%
0.45%
0.13%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
20-minute DriveContour
Washington County
Providence-Fall River- Warwick MSA
2010-2012
2012-2017
Relative rise in non-family households
Sources: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
Non-Family Households
Family Households
Annualized Percentage Change
20-minute Drive Contour
Washington County
Providence-Fall River- Warwick MSA
Annualized Percentage Change
22. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Strong growth in empty nester age cohorts
Population Age Trends
20-Minute Drive Contour
Percentage Change
2010
2012
2017
2010-2012
2012-2017
Total Population
227,765
100.0%
229,236
100.0%
228,723
100.0%
0.7%
-0.2%
Pre-School-Age Children
10,933
4.8%
11,003
4.8%
10,979
4.8%
0.7%
-0.2%
Grade School-Age Children
26,193
11.5%
25,904
11.3%
25,846
11.3%
-1.1%
-0.2%
High School and College-Age
33,026
14.5%
32,781
14.3%
30,878
13.5%
-0.7%
-5.8%
Young Workforce and Grads
25,737
11.3%
26,362
11.5%
26,303
11.5%
2.4%
-0.2%
Early Stage Families
29,609
13.0%
28,884
12.6%
28,133
12.3%
-2.5%
-2.6%
Late Stage Families
36,898
16.2%
35,990
15.7%
33,165
14.5%
-2.5%
-7.9%
Young Empty Nesters
30,293
13.3%
31,635
13.8%
32,707
14.3%
4.4%
3.4%
Older Empty Nesters
16,855
7.4%
17,880
7.8%
21,271
9.3%
6.1%
19.0%
Mostly Retired
18,221
8.0%
18,339
8.0%
18,984
8.3%
0.7%
3.5%
Median age
41
years
42
years
42
years
0.7%
1.2%
Source: US Census Bureau, Esri Community Analyst; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
23. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Notable increases in higher-income households
Median Household Income
Sources: US Census Bureau; Esri; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
Median Household Income
$69,553
$81,761
$62,557
$57,794
$70,596
$53,554
$0
$50,000
$100,000
20-minuteDriveContour
WashingtonCounty
Providence- Fall River- WarwickMSA
2012
2017
+17%
+16%
62%
38%
53%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
<$74.9K
>$75K
Percent of Total Households by Income,
20-Minute Drive Contour
+20%
30% increase in those earning $75,000 to $99,999
24. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Food at Home
Food Awayfrom Fome
Housing
Apparel andServices
Transportation
Travel
Health Care
EntertainmentandRecreation
Personal CareProducts andServices
Education
20-minute Drive Contour
Washington County
Providence MSA
Higher than average consumer expenditures
Spending Potential Index by Geography
Spending Index
National Average
25. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Top 10 Industries by Employment
Washington County
Percentage Change
2007
2009
2011
2007- 2009
2009- 2011
Total Primary Jobs
44,727
100.0%
42,030
100.0%
42,805
100.0%
-6.0%
1.8%
Manufacturing
7,186
16.1%
6,976
16.6%
7,010
16.4%
-2.9%
0.5%
Educational Services
7,376
16.5%
7,477
17.8%
6,658
15.6%
1.4%
-11.0%
Health Care and Social Assistance
6,091
13.6%
6,137
14.6%
6,269
14.6%
0.8%
2.2%
Retail Trade
6,141
13.7%
5,359
12.8%
5,262
12.3%
-12.7%
-1.8%
Accommodation and Food Services
3,925
8.8%
3,763
9.0%
3,871
9.0%
-4.1%
2.9%
Wholesale Trade
1,614
3.6%
1,670
4.0%
1,771
4.1%
3.5%
6.0%
Professional, Scientific, Technical Services
1,334
3.0%
1,330
3.2%
1,627
3.8%
-0.3%
22.3%
Other Services (exc. Public Administration)
1,582
3.5%
1,453
3.5%
1,561
3.6%
-8.2%
7.4%
Construction
2,184
4.9%
1,603
3.8%
1,501
3.5%
-26.6%
-6.4%
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation
1,120
2.5%
989
2.4%
1,167
2.7%
-11.7%
18.0%
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013
Five percent below pre-recession jobs level
Greatest growth in professional, scientific, and technical services jobs
26. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, 2007
2009
2011
Providence city, RI
5,553
10.4%
4,900
9.8%
5,254
10.2%
Westerly, RI
5,013
9.4%
4,576
9.1%
4,851
9.4%
Warwick city, RI
4,553
8.5%
4,194
8.4%
4,291
8.3%
Wakefield-Peacedale, RI
4,639
8.7%
3,165
6.3%
3,017
5.9%
Cranston city, RI
2,764
5.2%
2,609
5.2%
2,389
4.6%
Kingston CDP, RI
293
0.5%
713
1.4%
2,054
4.0%
Groton city, CT
627
1.2%
1,095
2.2%
1,256
2.4%
Newport city, RI
987
1.9%
1,026
2.0%
1,173
2.3%
Narragansett Pier CDP, RI
1,102
2.1%
1,486
3.0%
889
1.7%
East Providence city, RI
951
1.8%
828
1.7%
843
1.6%
Providence is the top worker destination
Top Ten Work Destinations for
Residents of Washington County
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Many Commuting into North Kingstown
Top sectors are:
•Manufacturing
•Distribution
•Professional services
184
businesses
10,000
employees
28. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, 5.6%
6.1%
4.1%
6.1%
4.1%
3.7%
3.0%
4.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
S Rhode Island
Providence
Northeast
United States
Vacancy Rate (Annualized)
5 Year
5 Year Forecast
Apartment vacancy decreased to below five percent
Apartment Vacancy Trends and Forecasts (Annualized)
Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc. 2013
4.5%
2012 Submarket Vacancy Rate
Residential Submarket
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4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, $1,037
$1,009
$1,063
$1,115
$1,179
$1,186
$1,150
$1,214
$1,306
$1,408
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Growth Rate
Effective Annual Rent
Year
Submarket Rent
Metro Rent
Submarket Growth
Metro Growth
Submarket apartment rents continue to increase, but remain lower than the Metro
Source: Reis; 4ward Planning Inc.2013
Apartment Effective Annual Rent Trends and Forecasts (Annualized)
Submarket
$1,084
Metro
$1,257
Residential Submarket
30. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Demand for nearly 17,000 new residential units in PMA and 1,260 residential units in WJS area
6,532
9,881
13,295
16,775
7,603
8,680
9,765
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2012
2017
2022
2027
Weak Growth
Flat Growth
Source: 4ward Planning Inc2013
Net Housing Unit Demand
Housing Units
Conservative Scenario
Capture Rate:5% of PMA
Affordable to Household Incomes @
Units Captured1-BR2-BR3-BR
Own
Rent
$39K & Less
$40K to $74.9K
$75K & Greater
2017
494
247
198
49
148
346
247
99
148
2022
665
332
266
66
199
465
332
133
199
2027
839
419
336
84
252
587
419
168
252
31. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, 2,204
2,244 2,244 2,244
2,289 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2,100
2,140
2,180
2,220
2,260
2,300
2,340
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Growth Rate
Square Feet (000s)
Year
Inventory Submarket Growth Rate Metro Growth Rate
Office Inventory growing compared to other markets
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Office Inventory Growth Trends and Forecasts
(Submarket vs. Metro)
Office Submarket
32. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, $18.89
$17.77 $17.85 $18.32 $19.08
$15.38 $14.64 $14.78 $15.25 $15.92
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Growth Rate
Effective Annual Rent
Year
Asking Rent Effective Rent
Submarket Effective Rent Growth Rate Metro Effective Rent Growth Rate
Decreasing office rent; varies widely by type
Office Effective Rent Trends and Forecasts
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Office Submarket
$18/sf
average
asking rent
33. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Estimated Total Office Space Per Industry, Sq Ft. (000s), 20-Minute Drive Contour
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Change
Total Office Space,
Top Ten Industries
5,728
5,849
5,973
6,100
6,230
6,364
6,502
6,643
6,788
1,060
Office demand likely to barely exceed existing vacancy
Source: Reis, LoopNet.com, NCRER, U.S Census Bureau, 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Office Space for Lease within 5 miles of Wickford Junction, as of June 2013
Property Subtype
Number of Properties
Available
SquareFeet
Average Asking Rent
Creative/Loft
1
4,080
$6.00
Medical Office
1
8,750
$22.00
Office Building
12
79,158
$12.68
Office-R&D
3
7,000
$9.27
Grand Total
17
98,988
$12.24
Mismatch between existing space and demand
10%
local capture rate
100,000 sf
office space
demand
(over ten years)
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4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, 0.0%
1.0%
0.5% 0.5%
0.0%
0.1%
0.8%
0.7%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Washington
County
Providence Northeast United States
Growth Rate
5 Year 5 Year Forecast
Zero retail inventory growth and a “challenging” market
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Retail Inventory Growth Trends and Forecasts
Retail Submarket
35. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Declining vacancy rates
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Retail Submarket
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1,300,000
1,320,000
1,340,000
1,360,000
1,380,000
1,400,000
1,420,000
1,440,000
1,460,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Vacancy Rate
Square Feet of Retail
Year
Occupied Vacant Submarket Vacancy Rate
Washington County Retail Vacancy
36. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, $21.30
$20.75 $20.62 $20.72
$21.05 $21.22
$21.62
$22.19
$22.82
$23.44
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
$19.00
$19.50
$20.00
$20.50
$21.00
$21.50
$22.00
$22.50
$23.00
$23.50
$24.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Growth Rate
Year
Comm/Neigh Comm/Neigh Growth Rate
Rising retail asking rent
Source: REIS; 4ward Planning Inc., 2013
Washington County Community and
Neighborhood Retail Asking Rent
Asking Rent
Retail Submarket
10%
asking rents
(forecasted)
37. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Potential retail demand in select categories
Net Supportable SF
Store Equivalent
Auto & Marine Parts
31,631
3
Book Retailers
222
0
Clothing & Accessory Stores
(4,513)
(0)
Craft and Fabric Stores
(15,875)
(1)
Electronics Stores
1,571
0
General Merchandise
(203,080)
(2)
Groceries
16,032
0
Home Improvement
(110,528)
(1)
Home Furnishings
(42,484)
(3)
Jewelry
(2,228)
(1)
Pet Supply
14,851
1
Pharmacies
(85,424)
(8)
Restaurant
(40,179)
(7)
Shoe Stores
1,822
0
Sporting Goods
(57,641)
(1)
Sources: Esri; BizStats.com; 4ward Planning Inc, 2013.
38. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Key Steps for Estimating TDR Credit Value
•A multi-step process, requiring upfront real estate financial analyses in both areas.
•Derive the residual dollar value after subtracting all projected development costs associated with prospective development.
•TDR credits, typically, do not equate on a one-to-one basis.
In North Kingstown…
•A derived profit margin is associated with the development of a single-family detached residential unit on a two-acre lot.
•Based on current zoning, developers who purchase TDR credits associated with sending district can construct up to 30 residential units per acre of land within the receiving district.
39. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Gross Sales = $500,000
Total Costs = $450,000
Profit =$ 50,000
Profit/Unit = $ 50,000
Key Steps for Estimating TDR Credit Value
Hypothetically, the TDR credits generated by one house in the sending district is sufficient to facilitate the development of five houses in the receiving district.
Supportable
TDR Cost = $90,000*
TDR Cost/Unit = $10,000
Sending District
Receiving District
TDR Credit Exchange Rate with ReceivingDistrict:
TDR Credit Exchange Rate with SendingDistrict:
One TDR Credit
$10,000
*Based on the project achieving market rate of return.
40. [Project Name]
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October 22, 2014
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24, Deriving Sending and Receiving District Metrics
Sending District: 1 Dwelling Unit
Average Selling Price: $ 500,0001
Average Total Development Costs, Expenses & Fees: $ 475,0002
Net Profit before Taxes:$ 25,000
Profit per Dwelling Unit:$ 25,000
Receiving District: 450 Dwelling Units
Supportable TDR Cost:$5,000,0003
Supportable TDR Cost/Dwelling Unit:$ 11,111
Based on the above derived metrics, the typical undeveloped two-acre lot within a sending district would equate to 2.25 TDR credits and would cost an average of $11,111 per credit (2.25 x $11,111 = $25,000).
41. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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24, Setting the Initial TDR Credit Value Rate
Current TDR credit value = ~$10,000
Recommended starting value = $9,000
•The value of the TDR credits will fluctuate with market supply/demand variables over time.
•Setting a range is recommended.
Demand for
Multifamily
Rental; Rents
TDR Credit Value
Demand for
Multifamily
Rental; Rents
TDR Credit Value
42. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
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SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy
INC.
24, Selling TDR to Your Municipality
•Do not tell your town what they need!
•What are their dreams for the municipality?
•What do they like, what do they dislike, what would they like to grow or protect?
•What is the town vision?
43. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
Page 43
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy
INC.
24, Selling TDR to Your Municipality
•TDR is a great way to protect open space and get walkable, bikeablemixed use villages
•These same areas generate tax dollars and economic development
•TDR is not one size fits all
•Program should be an option, not mandatory
•Downzoning vs. incentive based
44. [Project Name]
4WARD PLANNING LLC
October 22, 2014
Page 44
SNEAPA 2014: Using Market Analysis to Inform Your TDR Strategy
INC.
24, Todd J. Poole, EDFP
4ward Planning, Inc. Principal-in-Charge
Darlene Wynne, AICP
4ward Planning, Inc.Project Manager
Jon Reiner, AICP
Groton, CTFormer Planning Director, Town of
North Kingstown
Dave Caldwell, Jr.
Caldwell & JohnsonEDAB Chair, Town of North Kingstown
Local developer
Thank You! Now for Questions