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CIVITAS FORUM 2016
Sep 28th 2016
Gdynia, Poland
Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI – Gdansk University of Technology
2
Autonomous/Automated Automobiles
vs.
Self-driving Cars/Vehicles
vs.
Driverless Shuttles/Podcars
Understanding different impacts of each
automated mobility solution on metropolitan
(urban and suburban) spatial structures
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Gdynia now
photo: Author 2014
4
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Personal Rapid Transit in Gdynia?
artist vision: Author 2014
5
AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
But does Gdynia need PRT?
Do other cities need it?
It depends:
• NO – if we consider new expensive infrastructure
• YES – if we consider use of existing infrastructure
• but transport automation brings new opportunities
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
What are the conditions right now?
Car-centric development:
• which is justified by promising improvement of personal transport conditions
• but in reality the conditions are getting worse since the car invention
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
What paradoxes & non-intuitive laws are related to this problem? Examples:
1. Jevons’ Efficiency Paradox—  in relation to transport is e.g.: electric vehicles
users drive more, thus create bigger environmental impacts (Jevons WS
1866)
2. Braess’ Paradox—  bigger or smaller congestion when, accordingly: adding
new or removing existing part of the road infrastructure (Braess D 1968)
3. Induced Traffic Demand—  the more roads — the bigger traffic (Leeming JJ
1969)
4. Risk Compensation/Peltzman’s Effect—  the more safe you feel — the
bigger risk emerge (Leeming JJ 1969; Peltzman S 1975)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
5. Downs-Thomson Paradox—  investing in individual transport creates
additional traffic by reducing mass transit use (Thomson JM 1972; Downs A
1992)
6. Narrow lane safety—  the narrower lane — the safer road, even without
reducing the capacity (Schwartz S 1988)
7. Lewis-Mogridge Position—  traffic is growing to fulfil road capacity (Lewis D;
Mogridge MJH 1990)
8. Marchetti’s Constant—  the average time travelled is constant for any mode
of transport, due to the different distances passed and scopes operated
(Marchetti C 1994)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples of “traditional” car-centric viewpoints on automation:
• pushing for the creation of dedicated traffic lanes for autonomous
automobiles throughout the 225 km stretch of highway between Seattle and
Vancouver
• ideas of ultra-efficient (scary) automated V2V (vehicle to vehicle) & V2X
(vehicles to infrastructure) crossroads – green light for everybody at once
• free autonomous D2D rides (door to door) to shopping malls outside of the
city centre
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
This is why we should distinguish technical & organizational solutions
of automated mobility such as AA-s, SV-s & DS-s
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
I. What I understand by Autonomous/Automated Automobiles?
1. It is just an evolution of traditional 1,5 century old model of automobile
2. It still needs the driver (in the meaning of the owner) and steering wheel
3. It does not make any difference between other cars since newer cars have
already safety- and other kind of automation
4. Thus it is just marketing
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples for autonomous/automated automobiles:
• Tesla Model S (autopilot software update of an electric but traditional car)
• Mercedes F 015 (AA concept that is still focused on self-ownership or long-
term rent)
• Yanfeng AA (premiere 2017 – user interface presented 2016 in Frankfurt)
• Volvo, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan etc. are preparing their own AAs for the next
2-5 years (all major automotive producers will present AA until around 2020)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
II. What I understand by Self-driving Vehicles/Cars?
1. It is a revolution after 100 years of the same car model
2. It does not need the driver (no driving license needed) nor steering wheel
3. Thus the owner does not need to keep its belonging car with him/her
4. Actually the traveler does not need to own the car – he/she can use it as
todays taxi, ridesharing or car sharing services
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples for self-driving vehicles/cars:
• Google has been testing its self-driving car for example in Kirkland,
Washington
• Uber opened the first self-driving fleet in Pittsburgh, USA
• nuTonomy announced a partnership with South East Asia's largest ride-
hailing service, Grab, in order to further expand the reach of fleet of self-
driving vehicles
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
III. What I understand by Driverless Shuttles/Pods/Podcars?
1. It fills the on-demand (OD) gap between taxi service and public transit
2. It allows to cover the first/last mile problem
3. It competes with walking and biking
4. But it complement public transit making it cheaper to maintain (no drivers)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples for driverless shuttles/podcars:
• BestMile signs its first commercial project with CarPostal, the company
leading the sector of public transportation in Switzerland. This collaboration
between the EPFL spin-off and the subsidiary of the Swiss Post will allow to
operate driverless shuttles in urban areas
• Livermore Amador Valley Transit Authority (LAVTA) introduced two
innovations: partnering with transportation network companies (TNCs),
such as Uber and Lyft, to reach commuters in neighbourhoods big buses
cannot serve, and exploring driverless shuttles to solve first and last mile
issues to connect people to stations
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
What future transportation problems do cities have to solve?
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
We have stakeholders:
• Chaotic
• Monopolizing
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
We need stakeholders:
• Cooperating
• Complementing
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
How to solve the problem?
We need to implement Mobility as a Service (MaaS) paradigm
Why?
Because automation is a disruptive innovation that may have significant
negative side effects on functional, physical & socio-economic spatial structures,
as much as on transportation, including personal, group and mass public transit.
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
What ways do cities can follow? – example of (automated) car-sharing
Source: Author 2016. Car-sharing: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
Examples of shared on-
demand rides on the city
theoretical model:
• Rideshare picks-up 2 or
more passengers on way
• Rideshare prolong it’s
route if its <1,4 length
• Rideshare is
complementing public
transit
Source: Author 2016
Thank you!
Piotr Marek Smolnicki
Contact Details
Gdansk University of Technology
Narutowicza 11/12 Street
80-233 Gdańsk, Poland
piotr.smolnicki@pg.gda.pl
http://www.civitas.eu
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Author’s chosen references
• Smolnicki PM 2016 “Mobility Oriented Development (MOD): Public-Private
Partnership in Urban Parking & Traffic Management with the Use of
Autonomous Automobiles, Car-sharing, Ridesharing Modes of Transport &
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)”. Springer: Happy City: eds Brdulak H, Brdulak A
• Smolnicki PM, Sołtys J 2016 “Car-sharing: The impact on metropolitan spatial
structures”
• Smolnicki PM, Sołtys J 2016 “Driverless Mobility: The Impact on Metropolitan
Spatial Structures”. Elsevier
• Netsch S, Junussova M, Kamrowska-Załuska D, Kiełbińska K, Roszkowska K,
Smolnicki PM 2014 “Rethinking the Water-City Interface: Gdynia and
Waterfront”
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
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theory/wp/2016/03/02/buses-and-trains-thats-what-will-solve-
congestion/
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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Autonomous/Automated Automobiles vs. Self-driving Cars/Vehicles vs. Driverless Shuttles/Pods/Podcars

  • 1. CIVITAS FORUM 2016 Sep 28th 2016 Gdynia, Poland Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI – Gdansk University of Technology
  • 2. 2 Autonomous/Automated Automobiles vs. Self-driving Cars/Vehicles vs. Driverless Shuttles/Podcars Understanding different impacts of each automated mobility solution on metropolitan (urban and suburban) spatial structures CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 3. 3 CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Gdynia now photo: Author 2014
  • 4. 4 CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Personal Rapid Transit in Gdynia? artist vision: Author 2014
  • 5. 5 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts But does Gdynia need PRT? Do other cities need it? It depends: • NO – if we consider new expensive infrastructure • YES – if we consider use of existing infrastructure • but transport automation brings new opportunities CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 6. 6 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts What are the conditions right now? Car-centric development: • which is justified by promising improvement of personal transport conditions • but in reality the conditions are getting worse since the car invention CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 7. 7 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts What paradoxes & non-intuitive laws are related to this problem? Examples: 1. Jevons’ Efficiency Paradox—  in relation to transport is e.g.: electric vehicles users drive more, thus create bigger environmental impacts (Jevons WS 1866) 2. Braess’ Paradox—  bigger or smaller congestion when, accordingly: adding new or removing existing part of the road infrastructure (Braess D 1968) 3. Induced Traffic Demand—  the more roads — the bigger traffic (Leeming JJ 1969) 4. Risk Compensation/Peltzman’s Effect—  the more safe you feel — the bigger risk emerge (Leeming JJ 1969; Peltzman S 1975) CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 8. 8 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts 5. Downs-Thomson Paradox—  investing in individual transport creates additional traffic by reducing mass transit use (Thomson JM 1972; Downs A 1992) 6. Narrow lane safety—  the narrower lane — the safer road, even without reducing the capacity (Schwartz S 1988) 7. Lewis-Mogridge Position—  traffic is growing to fulfil road capacity (Lewis D; Mogridge MJH 1990) 8. Marchetti’s Constant—  the average time travelled is constant for any mode of transport, due to the different distances passed and scopes operated (Marchetti C 1994) CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 9. 9 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Examples of “traditional” car-centric viewpoints on automation: • pushing for the creation of dedicated traffic lanes for autonomous automobiles throughout the 225 km stretch of highway between Seattle and Vancouver • ideas of ultra-efficient (scary) automated V2V (vehicle to vehicle) & V2X (vehicles to infrastructure) crossroads – green light for everybody at once • free autonomous D2D rides (door to door) to shopping malls outside of the city centre CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 10. 10 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts This is why we should distinguish technical & organizational solutions of automated mobility such as AA-s, SV-s & DS-s CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 11. 11 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts I. What I understand by Autonomous/Automated Automobiles? 1. It is just an evolution of traditional 1,5 century old model of automobile 2. It still needs the driver (in the meaning of the owner) and steering wheel 3. It does not make any difference between other cars since newer cars have already safety- and other kind of automation 4. Thus it is just marketing CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 12. 12 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Examples for autonomous/automated automobiles: • Tesla Model S (autopilot software update of an electric but traditional car) • Mercedes F 015 (AA concept that is still focused on self-ownership or long- term rent) • Yanfeng AA (premiere 2017 – user interface presented 2016 in Frankfurt) • Volvo, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan etc. are preparing their own AAs for the next 2-5 years (all major automotive producers will present AA until around 2020) CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 13. 13 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts II. What I understand by Self-driving Vehicles/Cars? 1. It is a revolution after 100 years of the same car model 2. It does not need the driver (no driving license needed) nor steering wheel 3. Thus the owner does not need to keep its belonging car with him/her 4. Actually the traveler does not need to own the car – he/she can use it as todays taxi, ridesharing or car sharing services CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 14. 14 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Examples for self-driving vehicles/cars: • Google has been testing its self-driving car for example in Kirkland, Washington • Uber opened the first self-driving fleet in Pittsburgh, USA • nuTonomy announced a partnership with South East Asia's largest ride- hailing service, Grab, in order to further expand the reach of fleet of self- driving vehicles CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 15. 15 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts III. What I understand by Driverless Shuttles/Pods/Podcars? 1. It fills the on-demand (OD) gap between taxi service and public transit 2. It allows to cover the first/last mile problem 3. It competes with walking and biking 4. But it complement public transit making it cheaper to maintain (no drivers) CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 16. 16 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Examples for driverless shuttles/podcars: • BestMile signs its first commercial project with CarPostal, the company leading the sector of public transportation in Switzerland. This collaboration between the EPFL spin-off and the subsidiary of the Swiss Post will allow to operate driverless shuttles in urban areas • Livermore Amador Valley Transit Authority (LAVTA) introduced two innovations: partnering with transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, to reach commuters in neighbourhoods big buses cannot serve, and exploring driverless shuttles to solve first and last mile issues to connect people to stations CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 17. 17 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts What future transportation problems do cities have to solve? CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 18. 18 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts We have stakeholders: • Chaotic • Monopolizing CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 19. 19 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts We need stakeholders: • Cooperating • Complementing CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 20. 20 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts How to solve the problem? We need to implement Mobility as a Service (MaaS) paradigm Why? Because automation is a disruptive innovation that may have significant negative side effects on functional, physical & socio-economic spatial structures, as much as on transportation, including personal, group and mass public transit. CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 21. 21 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI What ways do cities can follow? – example of (automated) car-sharing Source: Author 2016. Car-sharing: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures
  • 22. 22 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI Examples of shared on- demand rides on the city theoretical model: • Rideshare picks-up 2 or more passengers on way • Rideshare prolong it’s route if its <1,4 length • Rideshare is complementing public transit Source: Author 2016
  • 23. Thank you! Piotr Marek Smolnicki Contact Details Gdansk University of Technology Narutowicza 11/12 Street 80-233 Gdańsk, Poland piotr.smolnicki@pg.gda.pl http://www.civitas.eu
  • 24. 26 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts Author’s chosen references • Smolnicki PM 2016 “Mobility Oriented Development (MOD): Public-Private Partnership in Urban Parking & Traffic Management with the Use of Autonomous Automobiles, Car-sharing, Ridesharing Modes of Transport & Mobility as a Service (MaaS)”. Springer: Happy City: eds Brdulak H, Brdulak A • Smolnicki PM, Sołtys J 2016 “Car-sharing: The impact on metropolitan spatial structures” • Smolnicki PM, Sołtys J 2016 “Driverless Mobility: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures”. Elsevier • Netsch S, Junussova M, Kamrowska-Załuska D, Kiełbińska K, Roszkowska K, Smolnicki PM 2014 “Rethinking the Water-City Interface: Gdynia and Waterfront” CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 25. 27 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts References 1. Ackerman, E. (2016). Swiss Considering $3.4 Billion Cargo Tunnel for Automated Delivery Trucks. Retrieved from http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that- think/transportation/infrastructure/swiss-considering-34-billion-cargo- tunnel-for-automated-delivery- trucks/?utm_source=carsthatthink&utm_medium=email&utm_campai gn=0 2. Alessandrini, A. (2016). CityMobil2 Newsletter: Cities Demonstrating Automated Road Passanger Transport (No. 7). Retrieved from http://www.citymobil2.eu/en/upload/public- docs/CityMobil2%20newsletter%207.pdf 3. Alexander, D., & Abuelsamid, S. (3Q 2015). Autonomous Vehicles: Advanced Driver Assistance Systems and the Evolution of Self- Driving Functionality: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts. Executive Summary (Research Report). Retrieved from Navigant Consulting, Inc. website: http://www.navigantresearch.com 4. Almeida, R., Chin, R. C. C., Huang, A., Karaman, S., & Berlin, J. L. (2016). Reimagine Mobility. Retrieved from http://optimusride.com/ 5. Baloh, M., & Parent, M. (2003, December). Modeling and model verification of an intelligent self-balancing two-wheeled vehicle for an autonomous urban transportation system. In The Conference on Computational Intelligence, Robotics, and Autonomous Systems. 6. Berman, B. (2015). Drivers Push Tesla’s Autopilot Beyond Its Abilities: Tesla says its new Autopilot feature is not synonymous with autonomous driving, but some drivers are acting like it is. Retrieved from http://www.technologyreview.com/news/542651/drivers-push- teslas-autopilot-beyond-its-abilities/ 7. Bertoncello, M., & Wee, D. (2015). Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world. Retrieved from McKinsey & Company website: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/automotive_and_assembly/ten_wa ys_autonomous_driving_could_redefine_the_automotive_world 8. Bischoff, J., & Maciejewski, M. (2016). Simulation of City-wide Replacement of Private Cars with Autonomous Taxis in Berlin. Procedia Computer Science, 83, 237–244. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2016.04.121 9. Bridges, R. (2015). Driverless Car Revolution: Buy Mobility, Not Metal (eBook Edition 1.10; Kindle Edition). 10. Campbell, A. (2015). Toward a driverless future with Commissioner Bienkowska. Retrieved from http://www.fiaregion1.com/en/fia_region_1/news/toward-a-driverless- future-with-commissioner-bienkowska.htm 11. COMM/RTD. (2015a). Komisja Europejska : CORDIS : Wiadomości i wydarzenia : Od inteligentnych do świadomych samochodów: podejmowanie wyzwania autonomiczności. Bastiaan Krosse, Jeroen Ploeg i Almie van Asten z dofinansowanego ze środków UE projektu I-GAME przedstawiają swój projekt i możliwości wdrożenia samochodów bez kierowców. Retrieved from http://cordis.europa.eu/news/rcn/123035_pl.html 12. COMM/RTD. (2015b). Komisja Europejska : CORDIS : Wiadomości i wydarzenia : Bezpieczna i przystępna technologia otwiera drogę do zautomatyzowanego transportu. Retrieved from http://cordis.europa.eu/news/rcn/123057_pl.html 13. COMM/RTD. (2015c). Komisja Europejska : CORDIS : Wiadomości i wydarzenia : Terenowe docieranie się flot bez kierowców. Retrieved from http://cordis.europa.eu/news/rcn/123085_pl.html 14. Davies, A. (2015). Obviously Drivers Are Already Abusing Tesla’s Autopilot. Retrieved from http://www.wired.com/2015/10/obviously- drivers-are-already-abusing-teslas-autopilot/?mbid=social_fb 15. Easymile. Shared transportation for the last mile. Retrieved from http://easymile.com/mobility-solution/ CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 26. 28 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts 16. Fagnant, D. J., & Kockelman, K. (2015). Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: Opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 77, 167–181. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.003 17. Fox, S. (2016). Planning for Density in a Driverless World. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2735148 18. Fraedrich, E., & Lenz, B. (2016a). Societal and Individual Acceptance of Autonomous Driving. In M. Maurer, J. C. Gerdes, B. Lenz, & H. Winner (Eds.), Autonomous Driving (pp. 621–640). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. doi:10.1007/978-3-662- 48847-8_29 19. Fraedrich, E., & Lenz, B. (2016b). Taking a Drive, Hitching a Ride: Autonomous Driving and Car Usage. In M. Maurer, J. C. Gerdes, B. Lenz, & H. Winner (Eds.), Autonomous Driving (pp. 665–685). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. doi:10.1007/978-3-662- 48847-8_31 20. Fraker, G. (2015, November). Technology Disrupting Mobility. MIT Media Lab. Disrupting Mobility Summit, Media Lab Building, Cambridge, MA. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/GJ1w4gO6zqg?list=PLFPx70Od9XB71TyGyWw- MwR-s6fAsKRl0 21. Gao, P., Hensley, R., & Zielke, A. (2014). A road map to the future for the auto industry (McKinsey Quarterly). Retrieved from McKinsey & Company website: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/a_road_map_to_the _future_for_the_auto_industry 22. GE Look ahead. (2014). 3D printing will disrupt manufacturing: But we will still need today’s model. Retrieved from http://gelookahead.economist.com/3d-printing-will-disrupt- manufacturing-2/ 23. Gibbs, S. Could drone-guided robots replace refuse collectors? Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/29/drone-guided- robots-replace-binmen-volvo 24. BestMile. (2015). BestMile has signed its first commercial contract with the major public transport operator in Switzerland | BestMile. Retrieved from https://bestmile.com/2015/11/04/sion/ 25. Grush, B., & Niles, J. Getting past the hype: What Gartner’s Technology Hype Cycle teaches us about the autonomous vehicle. thinkinghighways.com, 36–39. Retrieved from http://endofdriving.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/What- Gartner%E2%80%99s-Technology-Hype-Cycle-teaches-us-about- the-autonomous-vehicle.pdf 26. Grush, B., & Niles, J. How Cities can use Autonomous Vehicles to Increase Transit Ridership and Reduce Household Vehicle Ownership. 27. Grush, B. & Niles, J. (2015). Manifesto for the End of Driving. Retrieved from http://endofdriving.org/wp- content/uploads/2015/07/End-Of-Driving-Manifesto-20150710-Draft- 3.pdf 28. Hanley, S. (2016). Autonomous Electric People Pods Coming To European Cities This Year. Retrieved from http://gas2.org/2016/03/20/autonomous-electric-people-pods-coming- to-european-cities-this-year/ 29. Hatalska, N. (2016). TrendBook 2016 (Hatalska.com). Gdańsk. 30. Heinrichs, D., & Cyganski, R. (2015). Automated Driving: How It Could Enter Our Cities and How This Might Affect Our Mobility Decisions. disP - The Planning Review, 51(2), 74–79. doi:10.1080/02513625.2015.1064650 31. Hsu, J. (2 Feb2016). Driverless Dutch Bus Takes Passengers on Public Test. Retrieved from http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that- think/transportation/self-driving/driverless-dutch-bus-takes- passengers-on-public- test/?utm_source=carsthatthink&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign =020316 32. Ingrassia, P., Sage, A., & Shepardson, D. (2016). From Here to Autonomy: How Google is shaping the rules of the driverless road. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special- report/autos-driverless/ CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
  • 27. 29 AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts 33. (2016). Interview with Dimitris Papastergiou Mayor of Trikala (Greece). In CityMobil2 Newsletter. Cities Demonstrating Automated Road Passanger Transport (No. 7). 34. Klein, G. (2014). We Need to Think Bigger About Transit-Oriented Development. Retrieved from http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/07/we-need-to-think-bigger- about-transit-oriented-development/373838/ 35. Lander, E. S., Holdren, J. P., Press, W., Savitz, M., Austin, W. M., Chyba, C.,. . . Predith, A. (2016). Technology and the Future of Cities (Report to the President). Washington D.C. Retrieved from Executive Office of the President; President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) website: http://static1.squarespace.com/static/537a1f91e4b0ccfe943c6bc6/t/5 6d9fb4101dbaec85ef39fa0/1457126210525/WhiteHouseReport.pdf 36. Levin, M. W., Li, T., Boyles, S. D., & Kockelman, K. A general framework for modeling shared autonomous vehicles. Retrieved from http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB16SAVF ramework.pdf 37. Mui, C., & Carroll, P. B. (2013). Driverless Cars: Trillions Are Up For Grabs (eBook; Kindle Edition) (Original work published March 2013). 38. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles. Retrieved from http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/Automated_Vehicles_ Policy.pdf 39. Neckermann, L. (2015). The Mobility Revolution: Zero Emissions, Zero Accidents, Zero Ownership (eBook; Kindle Edition): Matador. 40. O’Sullivan, F. (2015). U.K. City Is Designing a Future of Fewer Cars — By Focusing on Its Roads: Densifying Milton Keynes thinks autonomous pods, not trains, are the answer. Retrieved from https://nextcity.org/features/view/driverless-cars-future-cities-milton- keynes 41. O'Toole, R. (2016). Transit is dead. Let’s prepare for the next mobility revolution. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in- theory/wp/2016/03/01/transit-is-dead-lets-prepare-for-the-next- mobility-revolution/ 42. Peters, A. (04.28.16). Driverless Buses Are Coming To Public- Transit-Phobic Beverly Hills: A planned network of self-driving electric shuttles will pick you up wherever, whenever you want. Retrieved from http://www.fastcoexist.com/3059236/driverless-buses-are- coming-to-public-transit-phobic-beverly-hills 43. Ratti, C., & Claudel, M. (2015). Full speed ahead: How the driverless car could transform cities (Global Infrastructure Initiative). Retrieved from McKinsey & Company website: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/sustainability/full_speed_ahead_ho w_the_driverless_car_could_transform_cities 44. Renn, A. M. (2016). Self-driving cars will change more than just traffic. Here’s why. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/03/04/self- driving-cars-will-change-more-than-just-traffic-heres-why/ 45. S. W. (2015). Why autonomous and self-driving cars are not the same. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist- explains/2015/07/economist- explains?fsrc=scn%2Ffb%2Fwl%2Fee%2Fst%2Fautonomousselfdrivi ngcarsexplainer 46. Schwartz, S. I. (2015). Street smart: The rise of cities and the fall of cars (First edition; eBook; Kindle Edition). New York: Public Affairs. 47. Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART). Future Urban Mobility (FM) IRG. Retrieved from http://smart.mit.edu/research/future-urban-mobility/future-urban- mobility.html 48. Smolnicki, P. M., & Sołtys, J. (2016). Driverless Mobility: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures. Manuscript, Gdańsk. CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
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