柏瑞週報 20200221

1. 21 February
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
3 10
10
1.5152%
10
-0.444%
•
0.14%
0.15% 438.1
• 0.52%
0.31% 0.34%
0.65%
Bloomberg 2020/2/20
-1.48
0.54
0.12
0.79
0.84
2.42
0.50
1.23
1.27
1.50
1.57
1.68
1.67
1.55
2.09
2.09
-0.65
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.22
0.25
0.27
0.31
0.34
0.36
0.40
0.46
0.46
0.52
0.55
0.61
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
0.02%
•
600 0.21%
•
300
4.67%
• 225
1.46%
• 0.05%
Bloomberg 2020/2/20
-6.79
-2.51
-4.40
-3.60
-3.65
-7.63
-0.86
0.85
-3.25
-6.73
-0.35
1.46
0.92
1.31
-3.68
-0.98
-2.26
-1.46
-0.97
-0.93
-0.87
-0.83
-0.70
-0.59
-0.57
-0.50
-0.47
-0.21
-0.05
-0.02
0.73
4.67
MSCI
Nikkei 225
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
DAX
RTS
MSCI
600
BAML
S&P 500
H
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
• 2 14
40 ( ) 330
Bloomberg 2020/2/20
-9.63
-13.58
-5.57
-8.48
-3.98
-2.76
-4.46
-3.51
3.77
-1.84
-8.13
-9.03
-4.63
-2.90
-2.12
-1.07
-0.39
-0.26
1.42
1.48
2.78
2.89
4.59
5.27
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 22 5
9 14
27
• 181
116 6
21
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/2/20
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
( 1) (PPI)
( 2) ( )
• 3 18
10% 15%
WTO
(Airbus)
75
•
(FOMC)
CME FedWatch
• 1 (PPI)
2.1%( 1) 5
PPI 1.5%
• 1 155 (
2) 2007 3
Bloomberg 2020/2/20

9. PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/2/20
•
( 1)
•
Freeport-McMoRan
3
Zayo Group
• S&P
(Macy’s) BBB- BB+
(Kraft Heinz) 6
(Fallen Angel )
• Apple Q1 Apple
iPhone
• Q4 Bloomberg
9 S&P500
7
Garmin Nvidia Analog
Devices Roku Walmart

10. PAGE 9
• 2 ZEW
10.4( 1)
1 26.7 8.7
21
•
78 29
• 1 (CPI)
12 1.3 1.8 6
3.8% 18
• 4
6.3%( 2) 1.6% 6
2.9
Bloomberg 2020/2/20
( 1)
( 2) GDP

11. PAGE 10
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/2/20
•
MLF 10 3.15
1 5 LPR 10 5
4.05% 4.75% 8
• 1 3.34
12.1% 1
5.07 10.7%
• 1
4.75%( 2) 2020 GDP 5%-
5.4%
• 7
50
10.75%
2020

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/2/21
/ /
2/24 IFO 95 95.9
2/25 GDP ( ) 0.00% 0.00%
2/25 GDP ( ) -0.40% -0.30%
2/25 132.5 131.6
2/26 -- 104
2/26 MBA -- -6.40%
2/26 710k 694k
2/27 GDP ( ) 2.20% 2.10%
2/27 -1.50% 2.40%
2/27 -- 210k
2/27 7 1.25% 1.25%
2/27 110.7 111.8
2/28 2.20% 2.20%
2/28 ( ) 0.20% 1.20%
2/28 CPI( ) 1.60% 1.70%
2/28 CPI( ) -- 1.50%
2/28 100.7 100.9

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.55 (2/20)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 97.0 (2/20) 5 : 126.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.81 (2/20)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 329.45 (2/20) 5 : 352.5

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.63 (2/20)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 438.1 (2/20) 5 : 457.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.13 (2/20)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 349.0 (2/20) 5 : 433.6

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.15 (2/20)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 305.0 (2/20) 5 : 374.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.83 (2/20)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 536.4 (2/20) 5 : 515.5

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.69 (2/20)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 305.40 (2/20) 5 : 345.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.58 (2/20)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 310.39 (2/20) 5 : 335.6

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.95 (2/20)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 645.0 (2/20) 5 : 555.9
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.05 (2/20)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 257.17 (2/20) 5 : 256.9

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.7 (2/20) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.3 (2/20) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.5 (2/20) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 18.0 (2/20) 5 : 17.0

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.8 (2/20) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.2 (2/20) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 21.5 (2/20) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.4 (2/20) 5 : 12.3

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.56 (2/20) 5 : 15.03
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 69.6 (2/20) 5 : 64.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 59.0 (2/20) 5 : 66.6
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 288.7 (2/20) 5 : 364.8

22. PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/20 '16/2/20 '17/2/20 '18/2/20 '19/2/20 '20/2/20
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/2/20 '16/2/20 '17/2/20 '18/2/20 '19/2/20 '20/2/20
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/20 '16/2/20 '17/2/20 '18/2/20 '19/2/20 '20/2/20
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/20 '16/2/20 '17/2/20 '18/2/20 '19/2/20 '20/2/20
5 1
36.7% -0.1%
28.7% 0.0%
5 1
33.2% 0.1%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
35.0% 0.0%
29.8% 0.1%
5 1
30.1% 0.4%
26.1% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR109036
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
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