1.
23 February
2019

2.
PAGE 2
•
Trump
1 FOMC
10
2.6518%
•
0.35%
0.53% 432.07
• 0.52%
0.29%
0.12%
0.78%
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
1.32
0.63
0.95
1.61
1.51
0.94
1.75
2.02
1.31
2.06
2.70
2.28
2.07
1.89
2.01
0.05
0.06
0.11
0.12
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.38
0.52
0.53
0.70
0.78
-
-
% %

3.
PAGE 3
•
S&P 500
0.62%
•
600 0.62%
DAX 1.40%
•
225 2.51%
• 1
4.54%
•
0.11% 6.64%
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
2.62
-1.57
2.93
6.07
4.55
2.90
5.38
3.31
1.87
2.45
3.89
4.33
4.75
5.93
7.67
8.70
0.11
0.17
0.37
0.62
0.62
0.66
1.19
1.40
1.66
1.77
2.51
2.56
2.72
3.09
4.48
4.54
SENSEX
BOVESPA
500
600
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
MSCI
H
% %

4.
PAGE 4
• OPEC+
(OPEC)
OPEC
• 2 15
367.2 ( )
145.4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/2/22
-6.62
-0.99
0.11
3.34
9.14
2.83
-1.76
5.75
1.59
8.92
9.15
12.13
-3.47
0.13
0.30
0.51
1.31
1.51
2.31
2.68
2.90
3.00
4.69
4.76
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

5.
PAGE 5
• 2 20 127
43 39
11 5 19
• 46 23
5
3,900
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/2/21

6.
PAGE 7
• Trump
7
Trump
• 1 FOMC
( 1)
• Markit PMI 2 Markit
(PMI) 54.9 53.7
PMI 54.2 56.2( 2)
• 12
12 1.2%
12 0.7%
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
( 1) 10
( 2) Markit (PMI)

7.
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
• S&P 500
9 69% ( 2)
60% 4
S&P 500 16.3%
• Bausch
Bausch EBITDA
Bausch
2018
10
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/2/22
( 2) ( )
( 1)

8.
PAGE 9
•
(TLTRO)
• May
Junker
• 2 Markit
PMI 74 47.6 PMI 5
55.1 1 53.0
2 PMI 52.7
• 2
48.5 50.3
1 54.4 47.0 2016 5
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
( 1)
( 2) PMI

9.
PAGE 10
•
•
1 4.64
3.23
• Jair Bolsonaro
2/20
10 1.2 ( 3,200
•
Eskom
Moody's
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
( 1)
( 2) BOVESPA
BOVESPA

10.
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/2/22
/ /
2/26 12 ( ) -0.40% 3.20%
2/26 12 ( ) -2.60% 5.00%
2/26 12 FHFA ( ) 0.40% 0.40%
2/26 12 CoreLogic 20 ( )( ) 0.30% 0.30%
2/26 2 124 120.2
2/27 1 ( ) 0.80% -2.20%
2/28 2 PMI 54.5 54.7
2/28 2 PMI 49.5 49.5
2/28 4 GDP( ) 6.70% 7.10%
2/28 4 GDP( ) 0.20% 0.80%
2/28 4 GDP ( ) 2.40% 3.40%
2/28 7 1.75% 1.75%
3/1 2 48.7 48.3
3/1 2 CPI ( ) 1.50% 1.40%
3/1 1 ( ) 0.30% --
3/1 12 PCE ( ) 1.70% 1.80%
3/1 2 ISM 55.6 56.6

11.
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 125.0 (2/22) 5 : 126.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.90 (2/22)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.77 (2/22)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 311.82 (2/22) 5 : 319.5

12.
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.52 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 432.1 (2/22) 5 : 454.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.65 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 395.0 (2/22) 5 : 438.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

13.
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.69 (2/22)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 429.0 (2/22) 5 : 369.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.94 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 534.5 (2/22) 5 : 507.6

14.
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.21 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 350.86 (2/22) 5 : 340.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.85 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 327.60 (2/22) 5 : 332.4

15.
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.52 (2/22)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 494.0 (2/22) 5 : 568.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.24 (2/22)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 264.32 (2/22) 5 : 255.4

16.
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.4 (2/22) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.7 (2/22) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.7 (2/22) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.5 (2/22) 5 : 17.4

17.
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (2/22) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (2/22) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 22.1 (2/22) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.1 (2/22) 5 : 12.8

18.
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.51 (2/22) 5 : 14.96
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 47.2 (2/22) 5 : 64.9
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.7 (2/22) 5 : 71.2
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 346.4 (2/22) 5 : 366.0

19.
PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/2/22 '15/2/22 '16/2/22 '17/2/22 '18/2/22 '19/2/22
5 1
36.2% 0.1%
29.6% 0.0%
5 1
20.9% 0.5%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
28.5% 0.3%
30.6% 0.1%
5 1
23.0% 0.5%
26.6% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

20.
PAGE 22
TR108046
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
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