More Related Content Similar to Market and economic data from February 15 2019 report Similar to Market and economic data from February 15 2019 report (16) More from Pinebridge (19) 4. PAGE 3
•
Trump
S&P 500 1.47%
•
600
1.03% 225
1.87%
•
3.88%
•
RTS 3.65%
SENSEX 2.96%
•
0.69% 6.26%
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
0.80
0.74
0.06
4.68
6.71
0.94
2.15
2.62
5.05
4.69
8.53
6.32
3.92
3.83
3.75
7.25
-3.65
-3.54
-2.96
-0.27
0.35
0.51
0.61
0.69
0.86
1.03
1.21
1.47
1.58
1.87
3.82
3.88
RTS
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
600
H
500
Nikkei 225
BOVESPA
% %
5. PAGE 4
• OPEC+ (IEA)
(OPEC) OPEC
3 50
OPEC+
• 2 8
363.3 ( )
40.8
Bloomberg EIA 2019/2/14
OPEC+
7.11
4.31
-3.92
1.20
4.07
-1.41
0.00
-0.99
1.62
0.52
7.72
9.46
-6.05
-5.13
-3.68
-2.32
-1.75
-1.22
-1.07
-0.46
0.19
0.35
3.36
4.77
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %
6. PAGE 5
• 2 13 69
6 59
3 16 20
19
• 88 38
3 12
6
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/2/14
8. PAGE 7
• 1 (CPI)
3
CPI 0.2
1 CPI 1.6
CPI 2.2% ( 1)
• 12
1.2% ( 2)
• Mnuchin
Lighthizer
Trump
3 1
•
Trump Trump
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
( 1) (CPI)
( 2)
9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 12
Getty Images
• S&P 500
77% 70% ( 2)
62% 4
S&P 500 16.2%
• Ally Moody’s Ally
Ba3 Ba2
Ba3 Ba2
Ally
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/2/14
( 2) ( )
( 1)
10. PAGE 9
• GDP
0.1%
0.2% GDP 0.2%
2018
1.5%
12 0.4%
•
May
May
0.2%
2018 GDP 1.8% 1.4%
• GDP
1.4% -2.5%
2018 GDP 0.7%
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
( 1) GDP
( 2) GDP
11. PAGE 10
• 12
1 1
9.1% -3.3%
-1.5% -10.2%
• 1
3.088 152
•
GSP 56
• Jair Bolsonaro
2/20 Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro 65
62
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
( 1)
( 2)
13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
/ /
2/18 12 ( ) -0.70% 0.00%
2/19 2 NAHB 59 58
2/20 1 -¥1052.1b -¥55.3b
2/20 1 CPI( ) 4.30% 4.50%
2/20 1 FOMC -- --
2/21 2 -- 50.3
2/21 2 Markit 50.5 50.5
2/21 2 Markit 51.4 51.2
2/21 1 -- --
2/21 2 14.5 17
2/21 12 ( ) 1.70% 0.70%
2/21 2 Markit 55 54.9
2/21 2 Markit -- 54.2
2/21 1 ( ) 5.00m 4.99m
2/21 7 6.00% 6.00%
2/22 1 CPI( ) 0.40% 0.30%
2/22 2 IFO 99 99.1
14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 126.0 (2/14) 5 : 126.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.91 (2/14)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.80 (2/14)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 314.44 (2/14) 5 : 319.5
15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.64 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 443.2 (2/14) 5 : 454.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.79 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 407.0 (2/14) 5 : 438.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.83 (2/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 447.0 (2/14) 5 : 368.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.98 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 537.1 (2/14) 5 : 507.4
17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.25 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 354.11 (2/14) 5 : 340.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.88 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 329.79 (2/14) 5 : 332.4
18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.59 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 500.0 (2/14) 5 : 568.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.26 (2/14)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 264.11 (2/14) 5 : 255.4
19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.1 (2/14) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.4 (2/14) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.4 (2/14) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.3 (2/14) 5 : 17.5
20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (2/14) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.8 (2/14) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 22.1 (2/14) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.2 (2/14) 5 : 12.8
21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.22 (2/14) 5 : 14.97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 47.2 (2/14) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.2 (2/14) 5 : 71.2
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 354.2 (2/14) 5 : 366.0
22. PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
5 1
36.6% 0.7%
29.6% 0.1%
5 1
20.8% 0.1%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
28.7% 0.4%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
23.0% -0.1%
26.6% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
