柏瑞週報 20190215

1. 15 February
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
2.6536%
•
0.31%
0.09%
443.22
•
0.06%
0.20%
0.24%
0.52%
1.64%
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
0.30
0.54
0.99
2.97
1.91
2.16
1.00
0.70
1.22
2.71
2.09
1.63
1.64
2.17
3.21
-1.64
-0.01
0.01
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.16
0.17
0.20
0.23
0.24
0.31
0.52
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
Trump
S&P 500 1.47%
•
600
1.03% 225
1.87%
•
3.88%
•
RTS 3.65%
SENSEX 2.96%
•
0.69% 6.26%
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
0.80
0.74
0.06
4.68
6.71
0.94
2.15
2.62
5.05
4.69
8.53
6.32
3.92
3.83
3.75
7.25
-3.65
-3.54
-2.96
-0.27
0.35
0.51
0.61
0.69
0.86
1.03
1.21
1.47
1.58
1.87
3.82
3.88
RTS
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
600
H
500
Nikkei 225
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
• OPEC+ (IEA)
(OPEC) OPEC
3 50
OPEC+
• 2 8
363.3 ( )
40.8
Bloomberg EIA 2019/2/14
OPEC+
7.11
4.31
-3.92
1.20
4.07
-1.41
0.00
-0.99
1.62
0.52
7.72
9.46
-6.05
-5.13
-3.68
-2.32
-1.75
-1.22
-1.07
-0.46
0.19
0.35
3.36
4.77
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 2 13 69
6 59
3 16 20
19
• 88 38
3 12
6
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/2/14

8. PAGE 7
• 1 (CPI)
3
CPI 0.2
1 CPI 1.6
CPI 2.2% ( 1)
• 12
1.2% ( 2)
• Mnuchin
Lighthizer
Trump
3 1
•
Trump Trump
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
( 1) (CPI)
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 12
Getty Images
• S&P 500
77% 70% ( 2)
62% 4
S&P 500 16.2%
• Ally Moody’s Ally
Ba3 Ba2
Ba3 Ba2
Ally
Bloomberg I/B/E/S 2019/2/14
( 2) ( )
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• GDP
0.1%
0.2% GDP 0.2%
2018
1.5%
12 0.4%
•
May
May
0.2%
2018 GDP 1.8% 1.4%
• GDP
1.4% -2.5%
2018 GDP 0.7%
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
( 1) GDP
( 2) GDP

11. PAGE 10
• 12
1 1
9.1% -3.3%
-1.5% -10.2%
• 1
3.088 152
•
GSP 56
• Jair Bolsonaro
2/20 Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro 65
62
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
( 1)
( 2)

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/2/14
/ /
2/18 12 ( ) -0.70% 0.00%
2/19 2 NAHB 59 58
2/20 1 -¥1052.1b -¥55.3b
2/20 1 CPI( ) 4.30% 4.50%
2/20 1 FOMC -- --
2/21 2 -- 50.3
2/21 2 Markit 50.5 50.5
2/21 2 Markit 51.4 51.2
2/21 1 -- --
2/21 2 14.5 17
2/21 12 ( ) 1.70% 0.70%
2/21 2 Markit 55 54.9
2/21 2 Markit -- 54.2
2/21 1 ( ) 5.00m 4.99m
2/21 7 6.00% 6.00%
2/22 1 CPI( ) 0.40% 0.30%
2/22 2 IFO 99 99.1

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 126.0 (2/14) 5 : 126.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.91 (2/14)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.80 (2/14)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 314.44 (2/14) 5 : 319.5

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.64 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 443.2 (2/14) 5 : 454.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.79 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 407.0 (2/14) 5 : 438.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.83 (2/14)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 447.0 (2/14) 5 : 368.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.98 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 537.1 (2/14) 5 : 507.4

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.25 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 354.11 (2/14) 5 : 340.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.88 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 329.79 (2/14) 5 : 332.4

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.59 (2/14)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 500.0 (2/14) 5 : 568.8
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.26 (2/14)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 264.11 (2/14) 5 : 255.4

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.1 (2/14) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.4 (2/14) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.4 (2/14) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.3 (2/14) 5 : 17.5

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (2/14) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.8 (2/14) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 22.1 (2/14) 5 : 18.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.2 (2/14) 5 : 12.8

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.22 (2/14) 5 : 14.97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 47.2 (2/14) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.2 (2/14) 5 : 71.2
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 354.2 (2/14) 5 : 366.0

22. PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/2/14 '15/2/14 '16/2/14 '17/2/14 '18/2/14 '19/2/14
5 1
36.6% 0.7%
29.6% 0.1%
5 1
20.8% 0.1%
31.7% 0.1%
5 1
28.7% 0.4%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
23.0% -0.1%
26.6% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108034
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
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407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
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