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Forestfireinvesting phin-upham

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Forestfireinvesting phin-upham

  1. 1. FForest Fire Investingorest Fire Investing By Phin UphamBy Phin Upham
  2. 2. Investing From a GlobalInvesting From a Global PerspectivePerspective  See the forest rather than the trees  Blend different lenses to see what others are not  Competition between experts: tallest tree in a forest was in 10 years?  A botanist: fastest growing  An immunologist: tree with disease  A pedologist: tree rooted in most fertile ground  Are they all wrong?  A layman: stepped back and saw possibility of a forest fire  Layman chooses tree alone in the field.  What happens if this crisis breaks on a global scale?  What is the most likely equivalent of a global forest fire?
  3. 3. This Too Shall NOT PassThis Too Shall NOT Pass  Debt of global recession  Might not pass until ugly adjustments are made  Great Depression ended with WWII  War effort lifted US, drove economy  If that crisis was ended by a world war could this one too?
  4. 4. Obvious HotspotsObvious Hotspots  Israel: At odds with near-nuclear Iran.  What will the cascade of responses to this be?  Former Soviet and Baltic States: discontent as currencies are under pressure  China: Escalating protests  Problems are significant.  “You make us rich, you can have power” tested.
  5. 5. Area of Deep ConcernArea of Deep Concern  Totalitarian countries: oil exporters who have high marginal costs.  Middle East is fine  Wealthy nations like Canada will be fine  Troubling examples: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.  Marginal cost close to $100
  6. 6. Area of Deep ConcernArea of Deep Concern  Totalitarian countries: oil exporters who have high marginal costs.  Middle East is fine  Wealthy nations like Canada will be fine  Troubling examples: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.  Marginal cost close to $100

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