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The Digital Programmable Euro, Libra and CBDC: Implications for European Banks

  1. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 1 The Digital, Programmable Euro, Libra and CBDCs: Implications for European Banks Philipp Sandner, Jonas Gross, Lena Grale, Philipp Schulden Frankfurt School Blockchain Center July 29, 2020
  2. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 2 50+ senior experts surveyed from central banks, financial organizations and industrial companies
  3. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 3 Key points of the report This report provides a consolidation of a conducted study on the topics of the digital, programmable Euro, Libra and CBDCs. What is the study about? The study sheds light on the perception of the digital, programmable Euro, Libra and CBDCs. What is the data basis for the study? For the data collection, more than 50 senior experts were interviewed in order to derive a comprehensive picture of sentiment. Why was the study being conducted? To date, payment innovations are not sufficiently discussed and analyzed from the perspective of different sectors and industries. When was the survey of the experts being conducted? The expert interviews were conducted in June and July of 2020. Who conducted the study? The study was conducted by the Frankfurt School Blockchain Center with the support of its partners. 05 01 02 03 04
  4. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 4 Executive summary of study results The respective benefits and risks have a series of implications for european banks, as shown in the middle. Benefits ❏ Financial integrity (AML, CFT) ❏ Opportunities for monetary policy ❏ Monetary sovereignty ❏ Payment efficiency ❏ Payment convenience ❏ Financial sector innovations through increasing competition ❏ Financial inclusion ❏ Wake-up call for CBDC development ❏ Global interoperability Digital Euro on LibraDigital Euro as CBDC ❏ Digital bank runs ❏ Operational and reputational risk ❏ Centralization of credit at the central bank ❏ Disintermediation of banks: ❏ CBDC can cause an excessive movement of funds from banks to the central bank leading to refinancing problems for banks ❏ Libra will crowd out financial organizations of the cross-border payments market ❏ Potential abuse of market power, data centralization and insufficient consumer protection ❏ Implementation of well-functioning global regulatory framework ❏ Diminishing power of central banks ❏ Liquidity and credit risk Risks
  5. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 5 Expert interview participants (1) The study results are based on cross-sectoral and relevant expertise from central banks, financial organizations and industrial companies. No. ID Field of work Country Profession 1 A1 Academia Germany Professor 2 A2 Academia Germany Research Assistant 3 A3 Academia Switzerland Research Assistant 4 A4 Academia Switzerland Professor 5 A5 Academia Denmark Research Assistant 6 A6 Academia Germany Professor 7 A7 Academia Spain Research Assistant 8 A8 Academia Republic of Korea Research Assistant 9 A9 Academia Switzerland Professor 10 B1 Banking Germany Chief Economist and Head of Research 11 B2 Banking Germany Digital Markets Development Manager 12 B3 Banking Germany Managing Director 13 B4 Banking Germany Digital Office
  6. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 6 Expert interview participants (2) The study results are based on cross-sectoral and relevant expertise from central banks, financial organizations and industrial companies. No. ID Field of work Country Profession 14 B5 Banking Germany CFO 15 B6 Banking Germany Senior Trader 16 B7 Banking Germany Undisclosed 17 C1 Central Banking Pan-European Undisclosed 18 C2 Central Banking Germany Undisclosed 19 C3 Central Banking Ukraine Undisclosed 20 C4 Central Banking United States Undisclosed 21 D1 Associations Germany Head of Research 22 D2 Associations Germany Undisclosed 23 D3 Associations Germany Director of Economics 24 D4 Associations Germany Research Assistant 25 D5 Associations Germany Partner Lawyer 26 E1 International Organization United States Economist
  7. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 7 Expert interview participants (3) The study results are based on cross-sectoral and relevant expertise from central banks, financial organizations and industrial companies. No. ID Field of work Country Profession 27 F1 Consultancy Germany Director Digital Finance 28 F2 Consultancy Germany Research Assistant 29 F3 Consultancy Germany Research Assistant 30 F4 Consultancy Germany Senior Expert 31 F5 Consultancy Germany Expert Principle 32 F6 Consultancy Germany Knowledge Specialist 33 I1 Industry Switzerland Chief Economist 34 I2 Industry Barbados Executive Vice Chairman 35 I3 Industry Germany Project Leader 36 I4 Industry Germany Business Expert 37 I5 Industry Germany Research Assistant 38 I6 Industry Denmark Research Assistant 39 I7 Industry Germany CTO
  8. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 8 Expert interview participants (4) The study results are based on cross-sectoral and relevant expertise from central banks, financial organizations and industrial companies. No. ID Field of work Country Profession 40 I8 Industry Germany Consultant 41 I9 Industry Germany CEO 42 I10 Industry Germany Founder and CEO 43 I11 Industry Germany Chief Business Development Officer 44 I12 Industry Canada Solution Architect 45 I14 Industry Germany Consultant 46 I13 Industry United Kingdom CEO 47 L1 Lawyer Germany Legal Partner 48 L2 Lawyer Germany Head of Digital Assets and DeFi 49 O1 Others Germany Co-founder 50 O2 Others Germany Head of Innovation 51 O3 Others Germany Research Assistant
  9. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 9 Agenda The study is structured into 3 different sub-categories. Benefits and risks of Libra and its impact on banks03 ● What are the benefits of Libra? ● What are the risks of Libra? ● When will Libra be introduced in the Euro area? Benefits and risks of CBDC and its impact on banks02 ● What are the benefits of a CBDC? ● What are the risks of a CBDC? ● When will a Euro CBDC be issued by the ECB? Benefits and use cases of the digital, programmable Euro01 ● What are the key benefits of a digital, programmable Euro? ● Is DLT the appropriate technology to implement a digital, programmable Euro? ● Do we need a digital, programmable Euro?
  10. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 10 Part 1: Benefits and use cases of the digital, programmable Euro
  11. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 11 What are the key benefits of a digital, programmable Euro? Experts attribute the greatest benefit to a automation potential of the digital, programmable Euro (e.g. automated processes as well as financial services such as interest payments, loans, escrow accounts, leasing, factoring).
  12. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 12 Is DLT the appropriate technology to implement a digital, programmable Euro? A significant portion of the surveyed experts (62%) regard DLT-technology as the appropriate technological layer for the implementation of a digital, programmable Euro. 62% 20% 18%
  13. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 13 Do we need a digital, programmable Euro? A significant proportion of experts (76%) see considerable and immanent benefits of a digital Euro for the banking sector and for the industrial, non-banking sector. 76% 8% 8% 8%
  14. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 14 Part 2: Benefits and risks of CBDC and its impact on banks
  15. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 15 What are the benefits of a CBDC? For 27% of the experts, improved payment efficiency is the primary benefit of a CBDC, followed by payment convenience (18%) and financial integrity (18%). 27% 18% 18% 14% 12% 11%
  16. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 16 What are the risks of a CBDC? For 55% of the experts, main risks of a CBDC are primarily to be found in potentially emerging financial stability risks, followed by operational and reputational risks (34%) and the possibility of credit centralization (11%). 55% 34% 11%
  17. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 17 When will a Euro CBDC be issued by the ECB? A majority of experts do not expect a Euro CBDC to be introduced before 2023. In their assessment, 42% consider an introduction in the years between 2023 and 2025 and 42% assume an introduction between 2025 and 2030. 4% 6% 6% 42% 42%
  18. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 18 Part 3: Benefits and risks of Libra and its impact on banks
  19. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 19 What are the benefits of Libra? 28% of the experts attribute Libra to a potential for an increase in payment efficiency. For 20%, Libra could serve as a trigger for research and development in the banking sector, followed by benefits for financial inclusion (18%). 20% 18% 17% 9% 5% 3% 28%
  20. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 20 What are the risks of Libra? 21% of the experts fear an abuse of the Libra Association's market power due to a market predominance of Facebook. Other risks include legal and regulation (20%) as well as a diminishing power of central banks (15%). 21% 20% 15% 15% 13% 8% 8%
  21. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 21 When will Libra be introduced in the Euro area? 48% of the experts expect a introduction of Libra in 2021. As such, Libra is expected to be launched at a considerably earlier stage than a CBDC. 48% 32% 9% 2% 2% 7%
  22. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 22
  23. © Frankfurt School Blockchain Center 23 Contact For questions regarding our research as well as for general inquiries, please contact us. Frankfurt School Blockchain Center Adickesallee 32-34 60322 Frankfurt am Main Germany Web: www.fs-blockchain.de E-mail: team@fs-blockchain.de As well as on Twitter and LinkedIn.
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