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I'm an Expert. Don't Trust Me.

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Why are those who should ostensibly know better so frequently and spectacularly wrong? Why are expert predictions basically coin flips? Here's the talk

Veröffentlicht in: Business
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I'm an Expert. Don't Trust Me.

  1. 1. I’M EXPERT. DON’T TRUST ME. Phil Simon V2V July 15, 2014
  2. 2. Hi. I’m Phil. @philsimon 2
  3. 3. WHO AM I? • Award-winning author of six books that don’t suck, most recently The Visual Organization • Huge Breaking Bad fan (more on that later) • Often called an expert of some kind @philsimon # 3
  4. 4. ˈekˌspərt Noun A person who is very knowledgeable about or skillful in a particular area. @philsimon # 4 EXPERT
  5. 5. You’d think that experts would be pretty good at predicting the future. And you’d be spectacularly wrong. @philsimon # 5
  6. 6. @philsimon # 6 “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” –Yogi Berra
  7. 7. • 284 experts • 28,000 predictions about the future over the course of 20 years • Expert predictions were wrong nearly 50 percent of the time @philsimon # 7 LET’S ASK PHILIP TETLOCK
  8. 8. @philsimon # 8
  9. 9. @philsimon # 9 “We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.” —Decca Recording Company executive, 1962
  10. 10. @philsimon # 10 “We are not interested in science fiction which deals with negative utopias. They do not sell.” –Anonymous publisher
  11. 11. @philsimon # 11
  12. 12. @philsimon # 12 “An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing.” ―Nicholas Murray Butler
  13. 13. @philsimon # 13
  14. 14. @philsimon # 14
  15. 15. @philsimon # 15
  16. 16. @philsimon # 16 “I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” –Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995
  17. 17. @philsimon # 17 “An expert is a man who has stopped thinking–he knows!” –Frank Lloyd Wright
  18. 18. • Experts are terrible at predicting the future. • Keep that in mind when one tells you that your idea/book/movie/startup will fail. @philsimon # 18 SO WHAT?
  19. 19. ABOUT ME www.philsimon.com @philsimon @philsimon # 19

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