1. Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling RatneshwarJha 20 Nov 2010

3. Present Risk Analysis Model Present model : Prioritized based on risk exposure Risk exposure: Impact & Probability on Project Answer to question “Would we care?” Risk Attributes : Subjective and Non-quantifiable Low Motivation in team, Skills, Performance, Satisfaction Present Risk Model : Fails in case of same Risk Exposure Doesn’t include inter-dependencies between risks Unable to predict risk /mitigation behavior in future Partially answers “Would we care?” analogy Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

9. Risk priority at any time.Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

12. Widely used in social /medical risk management

13. Human Resource: Salary, Location of work, Higher Studies

14. Best represented by Bayesian Networks where a risk node is assumed as child node and RIFs as parent nodes affecting.

15. P(R) = P(R | PA(R) )

16. “The more influential are the RIFs on a risk category, the more is the chances of risk occurrence in that category.”Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

18. “What-If” for a risk category Answer to “Why” Properly identify the risk attributes New Risk Identified. Phase 2: Risk Network Generation Risk discovery: Starts from conceptualization and ends till Go-Live Iteratively and frequently revisited Frequency depends in project health Risk Discovery Variants: What-If and Why scenarios Risk Dependency analysis What –If And Why Scenarios: What –If generates potential fault point in project Why validate the above fault points Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

20. Risk’s strength get affected by other dependent risks

21. Use to discover new potential risks

22. Use to prioritize risk mitigationRisk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

23. Phase 2: Risk Network Generation Graphical diagram of Risk tree Risk Network Tree Formation The dependent risk forms risk network tree structure with the child risk as root. In a project , suppose following risks are identified: R1: Not having sufficient license for engineering tool R2: Engineering skills is low R3: Schedule commitment looks aggressive. R1 is affecting risk R2 and R3 and R2 is affecting risk R3. R3 R2 R1 Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

27. Phase 3: Risk Mitigation Prioritization Mitigation Exposure: Defines the overall drive to mitigate a given risk. Average of the C.B.T and T.E factors involved. M.E = (C.B.T + T.E)/2 Alone Mitigation Factor (A.M.F): Represents the individual mitigation priority that a risk alone carries. A.M.F (R) = R.E * M.E Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

28. Phase 3: Risk Mitigation Prioritization Total Mitigation Factor (T.M.F): The Alone Mitigation Factor (A.M.F) is calculated without considering risk dependencies. Total Mitigation factor for a risk node takes risk dependencies into picture T.M.F(R) = A.M.F(R)+C (R|PA(R))* T.M.F (PA(R)) On the basis of T.M.F factor of risks, risk are prioritized for mitigation. Dependency Factor: C(R|PA(R)) = P(R | PA(R)) * ( IR/ (IR+IPA(R)) ) v Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

31. Risk Mitigation Analysis Analyzing R2 mitigation variance Analyzing all risks together Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

33. Benefits Of Proposed Model Proposed Model Presents a clear picture to prioritize risk when the risk exposures are similar. It has better predictability for risk. Hence the project can be planned in more better way. Provides better mitigation prioritization and hence, offers better mitigation plan. Current Model Fails to prioritize the risk when risk exposures are similar. Does not offer predictability hence planning business or project is a little difficult with this approach. It is not so robust and futuristic as it does not take various parameters in consideration. Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling

34. THANK YOU Risk Analysis And Mitigation Precedence Modeling