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The TMT Value Chain:
A Financial Perspective
Upin Dattani, CFA
Senior Financial Analyst
Ovum
How have equity markets viewed TMT?
• What might £100 invested around five years ago be worth now?
Digital Futures: The Wo...
Comparing Different TMT Financial Profiles
• Newer business models can generate significantly higher growth
Digital Future...
Comparing Different TMT Financial Profiles
• Profitability varies considerably between business models
Digital Futures: Th...
The impact of new business models (1)
Digital Futures: The World in 2025
© Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd
5
• ‘Ov...
The impact of new business models (2)
Digital Futures: The World in 2025
© Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd
6
• Tel...
Ovum’s 2015-20 Mobile Subscriptions Forecast
• Ovum forecasts global mobile subscriptions to rise from 7.26bn
in 2015 to 8...
Ovum’s 2015-20 Mobile Service Revenue
Forecast
• Ovum forecasts global mobile service revenues to rise from
$888bn in 2015...
Ovum’s 2015-20 Cellular Traffic Forecast
Over 50% of cellular traffic is now carried by 4G
Digital Futures: The World in 2...
4G will be a profitable enabler
By 2025, 4G will profitably underpin mobile communications
and connectivity (both voice an...
Copyright notice and disclaimer
Digital Futures: The World in 2025
© Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd
11
The conten...
Thank you. Questions?
+44 (0) 207 551 9223 | upin.dattani@ovum.com
Ovum.com | @OvumTelecoms
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TMT Value Chain - Digital Futures 2025

The TMT Value Chain: A Financial Perspective • How have the equity markets viewed TMT? • The impact of new business models • Ovum’s Mobile Subscriptions and Revenue Forecasts by Upin Dattani, Senior Financial Analyst, Ovum

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TMT Value Chain - Digital Futures 2025

  1. 1. The TMT Value Chain: A Financial Perspective Upin Dattani, CFA Senior Financial Analyst Ovum
  2. 2. How have equity markets viewed TMT? • What might £100 invested around five years ago be worth now? Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 2 Source: Ovum Chart illustrates share price appreciation (indexed at £100) from 31/12/10 to 25/11/15 without considering dividends, special corporate actions, or transaction costs. Apple adjusted for stock split.
  3. 3. Comparing Different TMT Financial Profiles • Newer business models can generate significantly higher growth Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 3 Source: Ovum
  4. 4. Comparing Different TMT Financial Profiles • Profitability varies considerably between business models Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 4 Chart illustrates Earnings Before Interest Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation and Capital Expenditure as a proportion of sales, for the latest financial year. Operating Free Cash Flow is defined as EBITDA less Capex. Definitions of EBITDA and Capex can vary. Source: Ovum
  5. 5. The impact of new business models (1) Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 5 • ‘Over-The-Top’ circumvents traditional telco or media service providers • Investors have heard of many technologies that failed to ‘kill the telco’ • Where service providers have charged too much, and have not innovated, new businesses can cannibalise revenues • Partnerships between network and internet players are emerging – Revenue sharing or charging OTTs for access is not established – Often, no money changes hands
  6. 6. The impact of new business models (2) Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 6 • Telecoms operators have invested in and are at the heart of communications and connectivity • OTT operators create demand for fast connectivity and bandwidth • Content provides an opportunity for distribution networks – Ovum forecasts annual growth in Telco TV of 8.9% (2015-20) • Technology presents telecoms operators with tools to better control and monetize their distribution networks • Investors have shown strong support for ‘disruptive’ business models
  7. 7. Ovum’s 2015-20 Mobile Subscriptions Forecast • Ovum forecasts global mobile subscriptions to rise from 7.26bn in 2015 to 8.53bn in 2020 (3.3% CAGR) • Over 40% of subscriptions to be on the 4G network by 2020 Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 7 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Subscriptions(000s) 4G 3G 2G Source: Ovum
  8. 8. Ovum’s 2015-20 Mobile Service Revenue Forecast • Ovum forecasts global mobile service revenues to rise from $888bn in 2015 to $985bn in 2020 (2.1% CAGR) • Modest global growth is driven by mobile data and developing markets Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 8 Source: Ovum
  9. 9. Ovum’s 2015-20 Cellular Traffic Forecast Over 50% of cellular traffic is now carried by 4G Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 9 Source: Ovum 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Percentageoftotalcellulartraffic Cellular traffic by generation Cellular - 2G Cellular - 3G Cellular - 4G
  10. 10. 4G will be a profitable enabler By 2025, 4G will profitably underpin mobile communications and connectivity (both voice and data) • Financial investors are conservative, and wary of the hype from 3G • Initially, network opex and capex from new activities reduces cash flow • Consolidation will change the landscape of TMT value chain • Financial expectations are relatively low! • Service providers need to innovate and respond to the challenges that new digital business models create Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 10
  11. 11. Copyright notice and disclaimer Digital Futures: The World in 2025 © Ovum 2015, Informa Telecoms & Media Ltd 11 The contents of this product are protected by international copyright laws, database rights and other intellectual property rights. The owner of these rights is Informa Telecoms and Media Limited, our affiliates or other third party licensors. All product and company names and logos contained within or appearing on this product are the trademarks, service marks or trading names of their respective owners, including Informa Telecoms and Media Limited. This product may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission of Informa Telecoms and Media Limited. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information and content of this product was correct as at the date of first publication, neither Informa Telecoms and Media Limited nor any person engaged or employed by Informa Telecoms and Media Limited accepts any liability for any errors, omissions or other inaccuracies. Readers should independently verify any facts and figures as no liability can be accepted in this regard - readers assume full responsibility and risk accordingly for their use of such information and content. Any views and/or opinions expressed in this product by individual authors or contributors are their personal views and/or opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views and/or opinions of Informa Telecoms and Media Limited.
  12. 12. Thank you. Questions? +44 (0) 207 551 9223 | upin.dattani@ovum.com Ovum.com | @OvumTelecoms

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