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Evaluation and Adjustment

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Evaluation and Adjustment

  1. 1. Evaluation And Adjustment Of The 2008 Census Age & Sex Data
  2. 2. Introduction  Information on age and sex is important because many of the other characteristics of the population such as fertility, mortality, migration, education, marriage, household formation, economic activity health, food and other consumption needs etc. are highly related to age and sex.
  3. 3. Objectives  Studies from different African countries show that the majority of data collected are riddle with errors, Sudan being no exception. Therefore the specific  objectives of the study are:  To evaluate the 2008 age and sex data.  To adjust the 2008 age and sex data.
  4. 4. Methodology  Sex Ratio.  Population pyramid  Intercensal Cohort Analysis.  In an attempt to examine the nature of errors in 2008 census, several methods will be used.  Whipple Index  Myers Index.
  5. 5. Methodology ..cont. Age Ratio. U. N. Joint Score. Comparisons with population models. To compare the actual percent distribution by an expected age distribution of stable population model.
  6. 6. Sex Ratio Year Population (000) Region Sex Ratio 1955/1956 Sudan 102 1973 Sudan 103 1983 Sudan 102 1993 Sudan 104 N. Sudan 101 S. Sudan 113 2008 Sudan 105 N. Sudan 105 S. Sudan 108
  7. 7. Overall Survival Ratios (OSR) by Region and Sex Sudan 1993-2008 Region Overall Survival Ratios Females Males Northern 0.85 0.84 Eastern 0.83 0.87 Khartoum 1.31 1.34 Central 0.62 0.56 Kordofan 0.72 0.64 Darfur 1.43 1.49
  8. 8. Whipple’s index shows that the age data for Sudan should be regarded as “rough “ . However, there has been a slightly improvement in the quality of age data in the 2008 census in comparison with the earlier censuses. Sex 1983 1993 2008 Sudan Males 280.0 255.7 218 Females 286.3 279.5 234
  9. 9. Myers Index for Males and Females, 2008 Digit Sudan 2008 Male Female 0 12.0 13.3 1 5.1 5.6 2 0.5 0.3 3 3.0 3.6 4 9.5 3.9 5 7.5 8.5 6 2.7 3.6 7 1.8 1.8 8 0.6 0.3 9 4.5 4.4
  10. 10. The value of the index places Sudan in the highly inaccurate category with score above 40, Although an improvement has occurred in the quality of grouped data over successive censuses year score 1973 67.1 1983 62.2 1993 56.6 2008 53.5
  11. 11. This table indicates the omissions in age 0 and 1, and this has resulted in an excess in the proportions in age 3 and 4. Sex Ratio Male % Female % 0 104.8 18.1 18.3 1 105.9 13.9 14.0 2 106.4 23.0 22.9 3 105.3 22.3 22.5 4 107.3 22.6 22.4 0-4 106.0 100.0 100.0
  12. 12. Percentages of Population at Older Ages by sex 2008 Census and Model Stable Population 2008 Model population Age groups Male Female Male Female 60+ 6.02 4.95 4.05 4.74 70+ 2.81 2.32 1.31 1.68 80+ 0.94 0.79 0.21 .31
  13. 13. The relative completeness of the 1993 censuses can be estimated by computing the expected population in 1993 and comparing it with the actual results in 2008 census. The result is shown below. Errors of closures Sudan Population 2008 39154490 Expected Population 2008 38204960 Errors of closure 949530 Percent of population 2008 2.5
  14. 14. Labor Force Shading errors are detected together with unfilled in fields in the questionnaire. These errors contributed to enlarge the percentage of the unspecified entry, where the percentage of the unspecified reached 13% in some fields. The direct effect of these errors can easily be seen in the low participation rate of the labor force compared with previous censuses. (1993 M 75.1, F 42.5)(2008 M 54.8, F 19.8)
  15. 15. Region Indirect method Direct method Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Sudan 17.5 17.7 16.8 16.0 13.1 11.0 N. Sudan 16.7 17.2 16.3 14.59 10.6 8.7
  16. 16. Conclusion This section tried to examine the quality of the 2008 data by using different analytical techniques . The 2008 population census yield, as the past censuses the age distribution is subject to: Omission of children 0-1 An exaggeration of the ages of the older persons 60+
  17. 17. Conclusion ..cont.  Preference for particular digits like 0,5.despite the efforts made in the 2008 census, the deficiencies in the age data persist as shown by Whipple’s index Myers index and the United Nation joint scores, Although there has been an improvement in the quality of data in the 2008 census in comparison with 1993 census, but still the quality of age sex data is defected. Adjustments is applied for the age 0-4 and the population numbers using demographic formulas.
  18. 18. Recommendations Needs of more efforts in the selection and training of the data collectors in the future. Completeness of civil and birth registrations.

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