presentation by Susanne C. Moser, PhD. at Sea Grant Week, 2010. Used by permission.

1. Toward Greater Hazard Resilience
in a Rapidly Changing World
Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D.
Sea Grant Week • New Orleans • October 19, 2010
Susanne Moser Research & Consulting
University of California-Santa Cruz and Stanford University
Healthy
Eco-
systems
Safe &
Sustainable
Seafood
Sustainable
Develop-
ment
Hazard
Resilience
Photo:wikimedia

2. Overview
What I was asked to address What you’ll get…
 The challenges ahead
 Hazard resilience – what does
that actually mean?
 Is that really what you‘re willing
to work for?
 If so, what would that mean for
your work?
 Toward ―business-unusual‖
 Trends and prospects
 Visionary
 Provocative
 Challenging
 Call for bold and innovative
thinking

3. Trends & Prospects:
The Challenges Ahead

4. Sea-Level Rise – Past and Future
Historical observations (1900-2007)
 IPCC (2007) +1.7~1.8 mm/year in 20th century (+3.1 mm/year, 1993-2007)
 Chao et al. (2008) +2.46 mm/yr (corrected for water impoundment in dams)
IPCC Projections (by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
 TAR (2001): B1 – A1Fi 0.09 – 0.88 m (1->4x historical rate)
 AR4 (2007): B1 – A1Fi 0.18 – 0.59 m (<1-3x historical rate)*
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Examples of more recent studies:
 Rahmstorf (2007) 0.50 – 1.40 m
 Dutch Delta Comm. (‗08) 0.55 – 1.10 m
 Pfeffer et al. (2008) 0.80 – 2.00 m
* Does not include potential but insufficiently understood
contributions from Greenland orWAIS over 21st century.

5. Sea-Level Rise: Growing Concern
Unclear how near we are to the temperature
threshold that could lead to irreversible
meltdown of the major ice sheets
Greenland ice sheet ~ 7 m global SLR
WAIS ice sheet ~ 5 m global SLR
Miami
Greenland
Antarctica
Source:Nature
Photos:nsidc.org

6. Changes in Storm Regimes
 Northward shift of extratropical storms
 Some areas may experience fewer ET storms
 Some areas may experience more ET storms
 Intensification, but uncertain changes in frequency of
tropical storms
 Intensification increases the storm surge height, even without
additional SLR
Case study: Corpus Christi,TX (Mousavi et al. 2010)
• Sea surface temperature ~ hurricane intensity
• Surge increase by10-15% per 10 mb of central pressure drop (could
be more or less depending on the hurricane, track, location etc.)
• SLR alone affects surge height disproportionally, and more so in
shallow waters than in deep
• Flood elevation changes by 2030 up to 1 ft higher than present
regardless of climate scenario; by 2080, 2->3 ft higher

7. Growing Coastal Population & Development
County growth rates of 10-15%
from 2003-2008 (darker blues)
Map: Crosset et al. (2005) Photos (l-r): Wikimedia, South Florida Water Mgmt District

8. Coastal Population Density
Photos (clockwise from top): FEMA, NOAA, city-data.com, kimscondo.com, Crosset et al. ,AAAS, CA Coastal Records Project, WA state iguide, Crosset et al.

9. How Many Live in the Floodplain?
 8,651,000 people, >3.0% of the total U.S. population, live in 1% annual chance
coastal flood hazard areas (8,427,000, or <3.0% along non-Great Lakes coasts)
 24,662,000 people, or 8.6% of the total U.S. population, live in census block groups
that border the open ocean coast or that contain 1% annual chance coastal flood
hazard areas
 Less-frequent coastal flood events (e.g., 0.2% annual chance [500 y] flood) affect
larger swaths of land and associated populations
Source: Crowell et al. (2010),based on 2000 Census data and FEMA flood maps

10. Loss of Our Natural Defenses
 Loss of wetlands as buffers
and floodwater absorbers
 Erosion of barrier islands
 Hardening of shorelines
Wetland loss from
1780-1980
(Source: NCSU)
Photo:FEMA

11. Implications
 The taboo is lifted
 Climate change is real, happening, and human-caused
 There is no quick fix, climate change will stay with us for a long time
 Sea-level rise as one of the most direct and inevitable consequences of a
warming climate
 Climate change requires comprehensive response: mitigation and adaptation
 SLR is one of the quantitatively most uncertain (and therefore
scariest) impacts, yet acceleration is already evident and certain
 Physical hazards will increase (on average); rare hazards will
become (more) common
 Population growth and development pressures ensure that cost of
coastal disasters will increase, even before accounting for SLR
Photo:MilaZinkova,Wikimedia

12. You know… but does the public know?
 11-14% say they are ―very well informed‖, 51-52% ―fairly
well informed‖ about how the climate system works, its
causes, effects, and potential solutions to global warming
 If graded on factual knowledge, 8% would get an A or B,
15% a C, 25% a D, and 52% an F
 Large majorities understand that land ice from Antarctica
(76%), mountain glaciers (73%) and warmer ocean
temperatures (60%) raise sea level. 76% also believe that
melting sea ice contributes, and in fact contributes most
to SLR.
 57% do not know how much SL has risen from 1900-2000
or how much it may rise in the next 100 years
 75% have not heard about coral bleaching; 77% not about
ocean acidification
Source: Leiserowitz et al (2010)

13. Sea Grant Strategic Plan
 Focus Area: Hazard Resilience in Coastal Communities
Healthy
Eco-
systems
Safe &
Sustainable
Seafood
Sustainable
Develop-
ment
Hazard
Resilience
GOAL 1
Widespread
understanding of the
risks associated with
living, working and
doing business along
the coast.
• Assessments of risk
and information
availability
• Assess risk to marine
enterprises
• Develop compre-
hensive education/
literacy programs on
climate change
GOAL 2
Community capacity
to prepare for and
respond to
hazardous events.
• Help decision-makers
create, adopt policies,
plans, etc.
• Create, disseminate
demographic and
hazard information
• Assess natural features
and new technology to
mitigate hazards
GOAL 3
Effective response to
coastal catastrophes.
• Make hazard
information available
and relevant to crisis
decision-making
• Contribute to rapid
response capability
• Make SG local
knowledge and contacts
available
Sound
science
Public
literacy
Participatory
decisions
Cross-cutting
themes

14. Hazard resilience –
What does that actually mean?

15. Origins and Contributions
 Mathematics
 Physics & Engineering
 Ecology
 Psychology
 Military strategy
 Hazards and disaster
studies
 Economics
 Organizational studies
 Livelihood & poverty field
Photos(t-b):unisdr.org,reut-institue.org,ommoncurrent.com,4engr.com

16. Different Notions of Resilience
 Engineering resilience is
the time to recovery—how
long an ecosystem takes to
recover following a
disturbance.
 Essence: Stability
 End point: Back to normal,
state prior to disturbance
 Common in risk/disaster
management field (―the
capacity of a city to rebound
from destruction”)
 Ecological resilience is the
amount of disturbance a
system can take before it
shifts into alternative
configuration.
 Essence: Variability
 End point: Evolution into a
changed system, sometimes
degraded, sometimes more
desirable.
 Common in modern ecology,
climate change context.

17. Other Useful Definitions
 The ability of groups or
communities to cope with
external stresses and
disturbances as a result of
social, political, and
environmental change. (Adger
2000)
 The ability to persist (i.e., to
absorb shocks and stresses and
still maintain the functioning of
society and the integrity of
ecological systems) and the
ability to adapt to change,
unforeseen circumstances, and
risks. (Adger 2003)
 Resilience consists of (1) the
amount of change a system can
undergo and still retain
essentially the same structure,
function, identity, and feedbacks
on function and structure, (2)
the degree to which a system
is capable of self-organization
(and reorganize after
disturbance), and (3) the
degree to which a system
expresses capacity for learning
and adaptation. (Quinlan 2003,
Adger et al. 2005)

18. Community & Regional Resilience
 A resilient community:
 anticipates: problems,
opportunities, and
potentials for surprises.
 reduces vulnerabilities:
related to development
paths, socioeconomic
conditions & sensitivities to
possible threats.
 responds: effectively, fairly,
and legitimately.
 recovers: rapidly, better, safer,
and fairer.
(Source:CARRI 2007, 2009)
A valuable resource:
www.resilientus.org
Sources: DHS (2001);Blair Ross, ORNL; CARRI (2008 )

19. That Raises Some Critical Questions
 Anticipating: Are we providing forward-looking, integrated, multi-
hazard information? Are we scanning the horizon for surprises?
 Environmental, climatic, demographic and socio-economic trends on a
crash course; neither alone has to be dramatic to cause big impacts
 Return to pre-disaster normal = under-preparing for future
 Reducing vulnerability: Are we focusing on those who have
everything to lose or those who have the most to lose?
 Responding: If a community depends for its resilience on internal
and outside resources, and more and more communities will
draw on them, what are the long-term prospects?
 E.g., mitigation grants, recovery assistance, economic networks
 Recovering: If adaptability and the ability to learn are at the core
of resilience in the face of change, what hinders or helps learning
and change? Are we supporting learning and change?

20. My Provocation:
Are you willing to work for resilience?

21. Implicit Trade-offs of Different Approaches
Approach
Criteria
Adaptation Vulnerability Resilience
Stressors Single stressor Multiple stressors Multiple variables
Spatial scale of
implementation
Sector focus Focus on places,
communities, groups
Large-scale coupled
social-natural systems
Temporal emphasis of
implementation
Short- & medium term
future
Past and present Long-term future
Actors Public-priv. partner-
ships, technology focus
Public sectors, civic
groups; human agency
Civil society, public
sector; agency weak
Policy goal Address known and
evolving risks
Protect group most
likely to exp. harm
Enhance overall capacity
for recovery, renewal
Desired outcome Max. risk and loss
reduction at lowest
cost
Minimize social
inequity, maximize
opportunities
Minimize chance of
rapid, large-scale,
irreversible collapse
Experience/
implementation
Emerging, some
responses well
established
Well established Emerging
Sources: Adapted from Eakin et al. (2009),Miller et al. (2010)

22. This Raises More Critical Questions
 Resilience:
 Are you willing to face the political pressure to
live with ―smaller‖ hazardous events in order to
safe-guard long-term resilience and sustainability
of social-ecological systems?
 Vulnerability:
 What is an acceptable level of vulnerability?
 Are you willing to work (or: fight) for the poorest,
most disadvantaged communities against the most
powerful forces?
 Adaptation:
 Are you willing to face the consequences of educating
people about the trends, challenges and growing risks
they are facing?
Photos(t-b):flickr,ens

23. The practical challenge:
What does resilience mean for
your work?

24. Some Smaller Changes to Make
 Understanding changing disaster risks
 Strengthening collaboration and integration (disciplines, institutions, agencies)
 Regular, periodic reassessments of changing influences on risk (climate change,
societal trends)
 Develop and provide user-friendly tools to assess which decisions are robust
under various uncertain future scenarios
 Providing effective decision support
 Improving science-extension-practice dialogues, collaborations
 Improving decision-relevant information and tools
 Improving access to information, fostering need for information
 Building capacity to learn and change
 Assess what limits people‘s ability to experiment, take risks, innovate; remove
these barriers, and provide incentives to change
 Provide forums and promote regular learning and reflection
 Provide input on all policies and management decisions that affect flexibility and
robustness
Source: Adapted from Mitchell & Ibrahim (2010)
Photos(t-b):clipart,worldpress.com

25. The More Ambitious Agenda
 ReducingVulnerability
 Engage communities in assessing their own vulnerability
 Illustrate through research how injustice is bad economic
strategy
 Speak out against injustice
 Build partnerships that focus on providing access to resources,
services, assets, information for the disadvantaged
 Educate and empower particularly those commonly cut-off from
local and national decision-making
 Working toward Resilience
 Educate the public, decision-makers about resilience
and sustainability
 Explore how adaptation, vulnerability and resilience
approaches can complement each other
 Educate yourselves and model internally how to do integrative
science, systems thinking
Photos(t-b):DetroitNews,ecoboot.nl

26. Toward “business-unusual”

27. Starting in-house:
Toward “business-unusual”
Healthy
Eco-
systems
Safe &
Sustainable
Seafood
Sustainable
Develop-
ment
Hazard
Resilience
Healthy
Eco-
systems
Safe &
Sustainable
Seafood
Sustainable
Develop-
ment
Hazard
Resilience

28. Personal Leadership
Source:Wikimedia
Do you feel satisfied with
what you have tried and done
for coastal hazard resilience?
What can you do differently?
What will you do when you
get back home?

29. Thank you!
Contact:
Susanne Moser Research & Consulting
Santa Cruz, CA 95060
Email: promundi@susannemoser.com
Web: http://www.susannemoser.com/index.php
Tel: (831) 427-2081
Photo:DanieldiPalma,Wikimedia

30. References
 Adger,W.N.: 2000, 'Social and ecological resilience: are they related?', Progress in Human Geography 24, 347-364.
 Adger,W.N.: 2003, 'Governing natural resources: institutional adaptation and resilience', in Berkhout, F., Leach, M. and
Scoones, I. (eds.), Negotiating Environmental Change: New Perspectives from Social Science, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham,
pp. 193-208.
 Adger,W.N., Hughes,T.P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S.R. and Rockstro?m, J.: 2005, 'Social-ecological resilience to coastal
disasters', Science 309, 1036.
 CARRI (all), available at: www.resilientUS.org
 Chao, B.F.,Wu,Y.H. and Li,Y.S.: 2008, 'Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level', Science 320,
212.
 Crossett, K.M., Culliton,T.J.,Wiley, P.C. and Goodspeed,T.R.: 2005, Population Trends Along the Coastal United States:
1980-2008 U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean
Service, Silver Spring, MD.
 Crowell, M., Coulton, K., Johnson, C.,Westcott, J., Bellomo, D., Edelman, S. and Hirsch, E.: 2010, 'An Estimate of the U.S.
Population Living in 100-Year Coastal Flood Hazard Areas', Journal of Coastal Research 26, 201-211.
 Eakin, H.,Tompkins, E.L., Nelson, D.R. and Anderies, J.M.: 2009, 'Hidden costs and disparate uncertainties: trade-offs in
approaches to climate policy', in Adger,W.N., Lorenzoni, I. and O'Brien, K.L. (eds.),Adapting to Climate Change:
Thresholds,Values, Governance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 212-226.
 PCC: 2007, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
 Leiserowitz,A., Smith, N. and Marlon, J.R.: 2010, 'Americans‘ Knowledge of Climate Change',Yale University,Yale Project
on Climate Change Communication, New Haven, CT.

31. References (continued)
 McBean, G. and Rodgers, C.: 2010, 'Climate hazards and disasters: the need for capacity building',WIREs Climate
Change 1, 12pp.
 Miller, F., Osbahr, H., Boyd, E.,Thomalla, F., Bharwani, S., Ziervogel, G.,Walker, B., Birkmann, J., van der leeuw, S.,
Rockstroem, J., Hinkel, J., Downing,T., Folke, C. and Nelson, D.R.: 2010, 'Resilience andVulnerability: Complementary
or Conflicting Concepts', Ecology and Society 15, 11 [online] URL:
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss13/art11/.
 Mitchell & Ibrahim (2010). Mitchell,T., Ibrahim, M., Harris, K., Hedger, M., Polack, E.,Ahmed,A., Hall, N., Hawrylyshyn,
K., Nightingale, K., Onyango, M.,Adow, M. and Sajjad Mohammed, S.: 2010, 'Climate Smart Disaster Risk Management:
Strengthening Climate Resilience', IDS, Brighton: UK.. http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/ASAZ-
8A7HMC/$file/IDS_Oct2010.pdf?openelement
 Moser, Susanne C., G. Franco, S. Pattiglio,W. Chou, and D. Cayan (2008).The Future is Now.An Update on Climate
Change Science, Impacts and Response Options for California. PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research,
Sacramento, CA, CEC-500-2008-07 (with accompanying summary outreach brochure).
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2008publications/CEC-500-2008-071/CEC-500-2008-071.PDF and
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2008publications/CEC-500-2008-077/CEC-500-2008-077.PDF
 Mousavi, M.E., Irish, J.L., Frey,A.E., Olivera, F. and Edge, B.L.: 2010, 'Global warming and hurricanes: the potential
impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding', Climatic Change in press, published online
12 January 2010.
 National Research Council: 2009, Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, National Academies Press,Washington,
DC.
 Pfeffer,W.T., Harper, J.T. and O‘Neel, S.: 2008, 'Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-
Level Rise', Science 321, 1340-1343.
 Quinlan,A.: 2003, 'Resilience and Adaptive Capacity: Key components of sustainable social-ecological systems', IHDP
Update: Newsletter of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change.
 Rahmstorf, S.: 2007, 'A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise', Science 315, 368-370.
 Vermeer, M. and Rahmstorf, S.: 2009, 'Global sea level linked to global temperature', Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0907765106.