*Please note that animations in this presentations are not visible when viewed through Slideshare. Ellie Cohen, Executive Director, Point Blue Conservation Science, spoke at the 2017 Open Space Conference, Eyes on the Horizon, Boots on the Trail on May 18, 2017 at the Craneway Pavilion in Richmond, CA. More info on the Bay Area Open Space Council's website: http://openspacecouncil.org/community-events/conference/

1. Bay Area Open Space Council
Ellie Cohen and Point Blue Staff
May 18, 2017
Accelerating
Nature-based
Solutions to
Secure a
Healthy Future

2. Photo: SE Greenland July 2016 Point Blue/ E.Cohen

3. January 5, 2017
Global temperatures in February 2016 already touched the 1.5°C limit

4. Nutrients
NO
Nutrients
Blob overshadowed El Nino; driving drought
>90% of warming in ocean; Heat 200m deep
http://www.nanoos.org/resources/anomalies_workshop/workshop2.php
Takamitsu Ito et al Geophysical Research Letters 2017; Long et al Biogeochemical Cycles Feb 2016
Jacox et al . Geophysical Research Letters, July 2016
IUCN- Explaining Ocean Warming Sept 2016
Triple Threat: Warming, acidification & oxygen loss

5. Visualization of a very wavy Northern Hemisphere jet stream (NASA)
Mann et al Scientific Reports 7 #45242 March 2017)
Slow-down of jet stream triggered
recent extremes-- floods, heat waves

6. Moftakhari e al Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding. Earth’s Future, 2017; DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000494
Extreme Events
http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf
Photo: Hwy 37 west of Lakeville Hwy Jan 2017 Christopher Chung/The Press Democrat

7. Human Health Impacts
http://www.who.int/globalchange/en/

8. Wildlife Impacts
Gretta T. Pecl et al Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and
human well-being Science 31 Mar 2017:Vol. 355, Issue 6332, eaai9214 DOI: 10.1126/science.aai9214

9. • On track for 5 degrees C
warming this century--
Impending
tipping point
for the future
of life on our
planet
Exceeding 4 of 9
‘planetary boundaries’
• Steffen et al, SCIENCE, Jan 2015, Planetary Boundaries
• Natl Acad. of Sci., Abrupt Climate Change Dec 2013
• Barnosky et al, NATURE June 2012
Image Cheng (Lily) Li.
• Climate change
• Species extinction
• Habitat loss (land-use changes)
• Fertilizers (altered
biogeochemical cycles)

11. We are totally reliant on nature
Gretta T. Pecl et al Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being Science 31
Mar 2017:Vol. 355, Issue 6332, eaai9214 DOI: 10.1126/science.aai9214
www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx; databank.worldbank.org
•Climate
•Flood
•Disease
•Water quality
•Recreational
•Educational
•Spiritual
•Freshwater, clean air
•Food, fisheries
•Wood, fiber, fuel
Est value= 2x global GNP or
$72 trillion in 2012
Ecosystem Services or Nature’s Benefits

12. Global Carbon Emissions Flat for
3 Years in a Row

13. New Policies from Paris to California

14. • $500m over 20 years for Bay protection &
restoration
• Managed by SF Bay Restoration Authority

15. Extension of CA Climate Law
SB32 (Pavley)– 40% reduction in GHG
emissions below 1990 levels by 2030
• Now at
~440 MMT/yr
• With current
policies
~310 MMT/yr
• By 2030
260 MMT/yr
https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2030sp_pp_final.pdf. See p. 37.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/27/more-electric-cars-more-solar-power-
expected-as-state-struggles-to-reach-tough-new-climate-standards/

16. Climate change tool box…
Renewable
Clean Energy
Building Energy
Efficiency
Mass Transit
Vehicle Miles
Traveled
Tara G. Martin, James E. M. Watson. Intact ecosystems provide best defence against
climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2016; 6 (2): 122 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2918
…must include Nature-based Solutions (NbS)
Water Use
Efficiency

17. Prioritize actions for multiple benefits & to
accelerate ecosystem services/NbS
LIFE on EARTH
Biosphere
C
A
R
B
O
N
HUMAN COMMUNITIES
ecohen@pointblue.org
Duffy et al PNAS May 2016
Atwood, et al. Predators - blue carbon ecosystems.
Nature Climate Change, 2015
Ballard, et al. Biological Conservation 2012

18. Apply the 10% Rule Every Day
T = Test &
E = Experiment
N = Now

19. UC Davis, USFS Intl Program
Ellie Cohen and Point Blue Staff
May 15, 2017
Engage local communities &
collaborate across sectors

20. Accelerate NbS: Manage rangelands for soil health,
carbon, water, biodiversity & bottom lines
http://www.carboncycle.org/marin-carbon-project/
Compost application
Prescribed conservation grazing

21. Water retention in soil
Shasta Dam – 4 million acre ft
Photo: US Bureau of Reclamation WRONG
Prescribed conservation
grazing on 40m acres
For every 10-12.5 acres, we can store another acre foot of water
by increasing soil organic matter by 1%

22. Carbon sequestered in soil
Offset ~10% of today’s CA
emissions (440 MMT CO2 or all of CA’s
commercial and residential GHG emissions)
Conservation management
on 40m grazed rangeland
acres
Prescribed grazing can increase CO2e ~.5-1 MT CO2e per acre
Compost amendment ~.5 MT per acre or 18 Tons over 30 years

23. P.Huber
Protect & steward remaining
rangelands ….
Paustian et al Climate-smart Soils, Nature, 2016

24. …MANAGE FOR MORE BENEFITS
TOOL:

25. Tool: Climate-Smart Easements
Incorporate future climate
to:
• Prioritize acquisitions
• Secure affirmative rights
to restore degraded
resources for resilience
to future change
• Test innovative
approaches
Feather River Land Trust: projections of climatic water
deficit- runoff & groundwater recharge- to prioritize potential
easement acquisitions; blue watersheds prioritized to
secure greatest water resources
Yellow= more CWD Blue= less CWD by 2070

26. DEVELOP METRICS to SCALE UP
Rangeland Monitoring Network
Ecologicalfunction
Soil Dynamic
Properties
Water Infiltration
Bulk Density
Organic Soil
Carbon
Vegetation
Species
composition
Cover
Birds
Abundance
Diversity
http://www.pointblue.org/our-science-and-services/conservation-
science/working-lands/rangeland-monitoring-network/
Handbook of Methods Online Data Entry Tools
www.pointblue.org/rmn
Soil

27. Restore Riparian Habitat
Accelerate NbS
Photo:Riverpartners.org
• Filters out pollutants
• Recharges groundwater
• Captures carbon
• Supports birds, fish, other wildlife
• Protects soil
• Increases property values, recreation
Lewis et al. 2015, Matzek et al. 2015, Seavy et al. 2009

28. Tool: Climate-Smart Restoration Palette
Planting more species that:
• Withstand extremes
• Provide food year-round for
disrupted phenologies
Seavy et al., Why climate change makes riparian restoration more
important than ever. 2009. Ecological Restoration Ecol. Rest. v27
Climate-smart restoration toolkit:
http://www.pointblue.org/our-science-and-services/conservation-
science/habitat-restoration/climate-smart-restorationtoolkit/

29. Tool: Beaver Dam Analogues
The Nature Conservancy
UC Davis
US Forest Service
Point Blue Conservation Science
Store carbon (30,000 acres = 2 m tons CO2e), recharge aquifers,
sustain wildlife, other benefits Norton et al. 2011 Point Blue – unpublished
TNC Photo: Montana
https://baynature.org/article/beavers-used-to-be-almost-everywhere-in-california/

30. Restore tidal wetlands & coastal habitat
• baylandsgoals.org/science-update-2015/
• mavensnotebook.com/2015/07/29/tidal-
marshes-and-climate-change/ Callaway, 2015
• Flood/Sea Level Rise protection
• Improve water quality
• Sequester Carbon
• Provide fish and wildlife habitat
Accelerate NbS with natural infrastructure for multiple benefits

31. Innovate tidal marsh restoration
Accelerate NbS: Test mound design
Sonoma Baylands, San Pablo Bay

32. Ecological Engineering: Horizontal Levees
--- accelerate NbS
Cheong et al Coastal Adaptation with Ecological Engineering Nature Climate Change Aug 2013
The Horizontal Levees Feb 2013 http://www.bay.org/publications/the-horizontal-levee
Tidal marshes combined with earthen levees can reduce costs by almost 50%

33. Accelerate NbS: Ocean Beach Master Plan
Managed Retreat

34. Restore seagrass- sequester C, reduce acidification
impacts, increase habitat, slow wave action
Hejnowicz et al Frontiers in Marine Science 2015
Travathan-Tackett et al Ecology 2015
First National Report on Living Shorelines Institutional Barriers Released 2015 www.estuaries.org
http://scc.ca.gov/climate-change/climate-ready-program/san-francisco-bay-living-shorelines-project/
http://baynature.org/article/subtleties-of-the-subtidal/
http://www.habitat.noaa.gov/coastalcarbonsequestration.html
San Francisco Bay Living Shorelines Project
Macreadie et al. “Can we manage coastal ecosystems to sequester more blue carbon?”
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2017.

35. Invest in urban green infrastructure e.g., rain
gardens, permeable streets, curb cuts/bio-swales, green alleys
Sunset Blvd Rain Gardens
Holloway Avenue permeable pavements and parking areas
Chinatown Living Alley

36. Site renewables in eco-friendly ways

37. No more ‘business as usual’
- Stop greenhouse gas
pollution,
- Transition to clean, efficient
and equitable energy and
water-use economy, and,
- Make nature-based, multi-
benefit approaches an equal
priority.

38. “We have to wake up to
the fierce urgency of the
now”
Jim Yong Kim on Climate Change
President, The World Bank

39. What do we need to do?
• Reduce our footprint- zero waste, carbon neutral
• Not just protect but actively manage to accelerate
NbS
• Prioritize actions for multiple benefits to nature and
people in watershed/ecosystem context
• Engage local communities & collaborate across
sectors
• Invest in demonstration projects and scale up with
standardized metrics and regular monitoring
• Practice the TEN% Rule: Test and Experiment Now!

40. Eyes on the Horizon; Boots on the Trail!
Be bold, take risks,
innovate and act now
to accelerate
nature’s benefits for
wildlife & people

41. Major Bi-Partisan Investments in
Conservation Pay Off!
Water flowing, carbon sequestered, wildlife thriving and
communities healthy despite extensive drought May, 2037

42. Bay Area Open Space Council Awarded Presidential
Medal of Freedom for Climate Leadership
November 2047

44. ecohen@pointblue.org
http://www.pointblue.org/
blog/sciencenews