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Counteracting complexity in the
       Telecommunication industry

Motivation and outlook for a management
     approach for coping with complexity



                                24th June
                             Oliver Budde
Changing Playing Fields result into …

Incumbents in high wage countries are facing an increasing level of complexity. Coping
with this complexity requires new management approaches.

                       External Complexity Drivers are changing the game

                   Supply Side                                                Demand Side

   Organisation     Technical         Device                 Individualization of         Quality Demand
   Convergence     Convergence      Convergence                     Needs

  New player,     Fixed-Mobile     Multiple Use           Communication becomes       High Product Quality is a
  new types of    Convergence      supporting new         a Lifestyle-Product,        must, excellent customer
  cooperation     on the network   business               consisting of intertwined   facing processes
                  layer            opportunities          components                  become essential




                  Increasing product variety                        Increasing momentum


                                               Rising Complexity
                                      (=Increase of Mass and Dynamics)



                                                Seite 1
… consequences for incumbents.

The increase of external complexity has proven to be a major influence on the business
model of Communication Service Providers.

                          Implications from an increased level of external complexity


               Customer Migration                                                            Number of Competitors (Global Markets)

          Approx +50%                                                                                Approx +150%

                                                    Quality                                                                             Revenue
                                 ?                  Pressure                                                         ?                  Pressure

   1990            2000            2015                                                       1990            2000    2015
                                             Source: Mercer Management Group                                                                   Source: RegTP, 2004




     Duration of the Product Lifecycle                                                                Achievable Market Prices

          Approx -50%                                                                                 Approx -50%
                                                    Innovation                                                                          Cost
                                                    Pressure                                                                            Pressure
                                ?                                                                                    ?
   1990           2000           2015                                                         1990            2000     2015
                              Source: Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma, 2003                                     Source: Federal Communications Commission, 2004




                                                                                   Seite 2
The Past

Right after the monopoly, only a limited number of product variants did exist. Therefore
the complexity level was easy to cope with and good margins have been generated.

                           In the good old times the product variance was limited

                                           Quantity – Price - Cost

   • An increasing level
     of product
     individualitation,
     does not go along
     with a proportional
     increase of the
     price                                                                       Price
   • Complexity costs
     are often hidden,                                                     Cost
     which therefore
     leads to cross-
     subsidisation of
     the standard                                                       Profit
     products




        Outlier                                  Standard                                Outlier

                                                Seite 3
But the Changing Grounds lead to ..

CSPs react on the increase of external complexity with an expansion of product variants.



                  Complexity drivers come into play and change the game

                                  Quantity – Price - Cost



                              Complexity Driver Demand Side


                                                                            Cost

                                                                           Price


                                Organisation Convergence


                                  Technical Convergence


                                   Device Convergence

      Outlier                           Standard                              Outlier

                                       Seite 4
#1: Complex Product Bundles and Tariffs structures

The introduction of complex product bundles and tariffs structures increase the
coordination effort and leads to higher costs.

                  Complexity drivers come into play and change the game

 • Higher                         Quantity – Price - Cost
   development
   cost through
   less scaling
   effects                    Complexity Driver Demand Side                   Cost

                                                                              Loss
                                                                             Price


 • Increasing
   costs for                    Organisation Convergence
   ensuring
   product                        Technical Convergence
   quality

                                   Device Convergence

      Outlier                           Standard                              Outlier

                                       Seite 5
#2: Increasing Process Complexity

The cost for the provision of customer facing processes (FAB) increases with the
number of product offerings.

                  Complexity drivers come into play and change the game

 • Higher                         Quantity – Price - Cost
   training
   efforts for                                                               Cost
   customer
   care agents                Complexity Driver Demand Side
                                                                             Loss

                                                                            Price


 • Increased
   coordination                 Organisation Convergence
   effort with
   external                       Technical Convergence
   parties

                                   Device Convergence

      Outlier                           Standard                             Outlier

                                       Seite 6
#3: Increasing IT-Complexity

Highly complex software infrastructure supporting the automatization of the process
execution inhibits an adaptive process management.

                   Complexity drivers come into play and change the game

 • Configuration                   Quantity – Price - Cost                   Cost
   of already
   highly
   customized
   software                    Complexity Driver Demand Side
                                                                             Loss

                                                                             Price

 • Integration
   cost with
   external
   parties                       Organisation Convergence
   through non
   standardized                    Technical Convergence
   interfaces

                                    Device Convergence

      Outlier                            Standard                            Outlier

                                        Seite 7
Summary of current challenges

       The consequence of an increased level of internal complexity can be further broken
       down into four dimensions to motivate the need for action.

                                                           Implications in the categories of a holistic PLM

                                      Steering Level             Execution Level           Product Architecture             IT-Support
                                   Limited Product             Long product            No efficient release            Inconsistent product
                                   Success rate relative to    development cycle times management due to a             data management in
                       Product     the high number of                                  missing consistency of          relation to the whole
                                   product ideas                                       the product architecture        product life cycle
                      Complexity
Internal Complexity




                                   Missing capabilities to     High numbers of             Limited exploitation of     Still inadequate
                                   manage the                  Products in the operating   automatization potential    Process-IT support for
                       Process     interdisciplinary aspect    systems, due to a missing   in the execution of mass    executing the PLM-
                                   of PLM                      or incomplete               processes in the            process
                      Complexity
                                                               retirement management       fulfillment
                                                               process

                                   Limited availability of     Limited capabilities to     High product launch         IT-Systems are
                                   steering parameters on      cope with challenges in     costs, due to the           dominated by
                         IT        an adequate quality level   the billing systems         heterogeneity of IT-        individualized systems,
                                                                                           systems and their           the introduction of COTS
                      Complexity
                                                                                           individual configuration/   has started
                                                                                           programming




                                                                  Seite 8
Conclusion

For coping with the increased internal complexity an integrated management approach is
required, tackling the multifaceted challenges from every angle.

                                 Integrated Management Approach


                   Lifecycle-Oriented Portfolio Management
    Strategy
     PLM-




                        Customer Needs Management                            DSS

                       Strategic Process Management
                                                                         Multi-Project
                                Determines                               Mgmt System




                                                                                         PLM IT Architecture
                           Value Chain Integration                           DMS




                                                              Supports
    Process
     PLM-




                                                                         Collaboration
                          Operational PLM Process                            Tools

                          Empowerment of People                             WFMS

                                 Shapes                                      PDM

                               Product Model
    Architecture
     Product-




                               Process Model                              Integration
                                                                          Architecture
                              Resource Model
                    Product Data Information Framework



                                               Seite 9

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Counteracting complexity in the Telecommunication industry

  • 1. Counteracting complexity in the Telecommunication industry Motivation and outlook for a management approach for coping with complexity 24th June Oliver Budde
  • 2. Changing Playing Fields result into … Incumbents in high wage countries are facing an increasing level of complexity. Coping with this complexity requires new management approaches. External Complexity Drivers are changing the game Supply Side Demand Side Organisation Technical Device Individualization of Quality Demand Convergence Convergence Convergence Needs New player, Fixed-Mobile Multiple Use Communication becomes High Product Quality is a new types of Convergence supporting new a Lifestyle-Product, must, excellent customer cooperation on the network business consisting of intertwined facing processes layer opportunities components become essential Increasing product variety Increasing momentum Rising Complexity (=Increase of Mass and Dynamics) Seite 1
  • 3. … consequences for incumbents. The increase of external complexity has proven to be a major influence on the business model of Communication Service Providers. Implications from an increased level of external complexity Customer Migration Number of Competitors (Global Markets) Approx +50% Approx +150% Quality Revenue ? Pressure ? Pressure 1990 2000 2015 1990 2000 2015 Source: Mercer Management Group Source: RegTP, 2004 Duration of the Product Lifecycle Achievable Market Prices Approx -50% Approx -50% Innovation Cost Pressure Pressure ? ? 1990 2000 2015 1990 2000 2015 Source: Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma, 2003 Source: Federal Communications Commission, 2004 Seite 2
  • 4. The Past Right after the monopoly, only a limited number of product variants did exist. Therefore the complexity level was easy to cope with and good margins have been generated. In the good old times the product variance was limited Quantity – Price - Cost • An increasing level of product individualitation, does not go along with a proportional increase of the price Price • Complexity costs are often hidden, Cost which therefore leads to cross- subsidisation of the standard Profit products Outlier Standard Outlier Seite 3
  • 5. But the Changing Grounds lead to .. CSPs react on the increase of external complexity with an expansion of product variants. Complexity drivers come into play and change the game Quantity – Price - Cost Complexity Driver Demand Side Cost Price Organisation Convergence Technical Convergence Device Convergence Outlier Standard Outlier Seite 4
  • 6. #1: Complex Product Bundles and Tariffs structures The introduction of complex product bundles and tariffs structures increase the coordination effort and leads to higher costs. Complexity drivers come into play and change the game • Higher Quantity – Price - Cost development cost through less scaling effects Complexity Driver Demand Side Cost Loss Price • Increasing costs for Organisation Convergence ensuring product Technical Convergence quality Device Convergence Outlier Standard Outlier Seite 5
  • 7. #2: Increasing Process Complexity The cost for the provision of customer facing processes (FAB) increases with the number of product offerings. Complexity drivers come into play and change the game • Higher Quantity – Price - Cost training efforts for Cost customer care agents Complexity Driver Demand Side Loss Price • Increased coordination Organisation Convergence effort with external Technical Convergence parties Device Convergence Outlier Standard Outlier Seite 6
  • 8. #3: Increasing IT-Complexity Highly complex software infrastructure supporting the automatization of the process execution inhibits an adaptive process management. Complexity drivers come into play and change the game • Configuration Quantity – Price - Cost Cost of already highly customized software Complexity Driver Demand Side Loss Price • Integration cost with external parties Organisation Convergence through non standardized Technical Convergence interfaces Device Convergence Outlier Standard Outlier Seite 7
  • 9. Summary of current challenges The consequence of an increased level of internal complexity can be further broken down into four dimensions to motivate the need for action. Implications in the categories of a holistic PLM Steering Level Execution Level Product Architecture IT-Support Limited Product Long product No efficient release Inconsistent product Success rate relative to development cycle times management due to a data management in Product the high number of missing consistency of relation to the whole product ideas the product architecture product life cycle Complexity Internal Complexity Missing capabilities to High numbers of Limited exploitation of Still inadequate manage the Products in the operating automatization potential Process-IT support for Process interdisciplinary aspect systems, due to a missing in the execution of mass executing the PLM- of PLM or incomplete processes in the process Complexity retirement management fulfillment process Limited availability of Limited capabilities to High product launch IT-Systems are steering parameters on cope with challenges in costs, due to the dominated by IT an adequate quality level the billing systems heterogeneity of IT- individualized systems, systems and their the introduction of COTS Complexity individual configuration/ has started programming Seite 8
  • 10. Conclusion For coping with the increased internal complexity an integrated management approach is required, tackling the multifaceted challenges from every angle. Integrated Management Approach Lifecycle-Oriented Portfolio Management Strategy PLM- Customer Needs Management DSS Strategic Process Management Multi-Project Determines Mgmt System PLM IT Architecture Value Chain Integration DMS Supports Process PLM- Collaboration Operational PLM Process Tools Empowerment of People WFMS Shapes PDM Product Model Architecture Product- Process Model Integration Architecture Resource Model Product Data Information Framework Seite 9