Opening plenary Key Trends and Future Potential in Energy Sector Mitigation by Dave Turk

1. © OECD/IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2016 Key Trends and Future Potential in Energy Sector Mitigation Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change 14-15 March 2017 Dave Turk Head of Energy and Environment Division International Energy Agency

2. © OECD/IEA 2016 Economic growth and energy emissions are decoupling

3. © OECD/IEA 2016 Power Generation 23% Biofuels and Solar Heat 1% Renewables 17% USD 1.8 trillion Investment flows signal a reorientation of the global energy system An 8% reduction in 2015 global energy investment results from a $200 billion decline in fossil fuels, while the share of renewables, networks and efficiency expands Oil & Gas 46% Coal 4% Electricity Networks 14% Energy Efficiency 12% Global Energy Investment, 2015 Thermal Power 7% Source: IEA World Energy Investment 2016

4. © OECD/IEA 2016 Understanding the ambition 2000 – 2015 – 2,7 ºC – 2 ºC – 1.5 ºC –

5. © OECD/IEA 2016 Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising Tracking Clean Energy Progress Other renewable power Buildings Nuclear Transport Appliances and lighting Energy storage Industry Biofuels Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind Technology Status today against 2DS targets ●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track

6. © OECD/IEA 2016 Carbon intensity of new power capacity down 27% since 2005 Source: IEA World Energy Investment 2016

7. © OECD/IEA 2016 Pre-2020 challenge: Peak in emissions IEA strategy to raise climate ambition Global energy-related GHG emissions Five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth 20 25 30 35 40 2000 2014 2020 2025 2030 GtCO2-eq Bridge Scenario INDC Scenario Energy efficiency 49% Reducing inefficient coal Renewables investment Upstream methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidy reform 17% 15% 10% Savings by measure, 2030 9%

8. © OECD/IEA 2016 Peaking emissions around 2020: Bridging strategy varies across regions The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy efficiency & renewables as key measures worldwide United States European Union China India Middle East Latin America Africa Southeast Asia Russia Fossil-fuel subsidies Efficiency Renewables Inefficient coal plants Methane reductions GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030

9. © OECD/IEA 2016 The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions Long-term challenge: Large scale systems transformation and decarbonisation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Renewables 32% Energy efficiency 32% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% CCS 15%2DS 4DS Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

10. © OECD/IEA 2016 From 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees Industry and transport account for 45% of direct CO2 emissions in 2013, but they are responsible for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050. Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Agriculture 2% Buildings 8% Industry 33% Transport 24% Other transformation 4% Power 29%

11. © OECD/IEA 2016 How to motivate GHG reductions ? Energy Sector Actions GHG targets Are critical for achieving Are not the only (or primary) driver of Other reasons: e.g., saving money, air quality, road congestion, energy security

12. © OECD/IEA 2015 Thank you Dave Turk Head of Energy and Environment Division david.turk@iea.org

13. © OECD/IEA 2016 Indicators to track energy sector transformation: Broader perspective  Broader indicators are needed to understand energy sector evolution and to formulate sound policy.  Coverage of a potential set of indicators • Energy supply and demand • The overall state of the energy system (outcome metrics) • Underlying drivers of change (driver metrics)

14. © OECD/IEA 2016 Aggregate perspective: How are we doing in reducing the carbon intensity of our energy system? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Carbonintensity(1990=100) Historical 2DS -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% %change Annual % change in the ESCII, 2010-14 As of 2014, the world’s energy supply was 1.2% more carbon intensive than it was in 1990

15. © OECD/IEA 2016 Post Paris energy sector metrics: Beyond GHG levels  The choice of metrics used to track and drive energy sector transformation matters a great deal • Specific energy goals can capture the multiple benefits of low-carbon solutions • Energy sector metrics can link directly to policy outcomes • Can highlight short-term actions needed for longer- term low-carbon energy system transformation  Start with Energy Supply and Energy Demand

16. © OECD/IEA 2016 Power Generation 23% Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios Oil & Gas 46% Coal 4% Electricity Networks 14% Energy Efficiency 12% Thermal Power 7% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 gCO2/kWh Historic 2DS average 2DS new build Source: IEA, Energy, Environment and Climate Change: 2016 Insights

17. © OECD/IEA 2016 Enhancing UNFCCC processes  The UNFCCC process provides a strong foundation for metrics and data collection  Further actions that could be taken through the UNFCCC process include: • Establishing energy NDCs tracking procedures • Encouraging capacity building to collect detailed sectoral and demand-side energy data • Highlighting the status of energy system transformation in the five-yearly UNFCCC stocktaking

18. © OECD/IEA 2016 …the global coverage of climate pledges is impressive Pledges cover around 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions; their full implementation would be consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C Submitted INDCs Not submitted INDCs OECD Asia Oceania 2.2 Gt Russia and Caspian 2.0 Gt Europe 3.8 Gt North Americas 6.1 Gt South America 1.2 Gt Africa 1.1 Gt Middle East 2.0 Gt 1.7 Gt Other Asia India 1.9 Gt China 8.6 Gt

19. © OECD/IEA 2016

20. © OECD/IEA 2016 Aggregate perspective: How are we doing in reducing the carbon intensity of our energy system? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Carbonintensity(1990=100) Historical 2DS -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% %change Annual % change in the ESCII, 2010-14 As of 2014, the world’s energy supply was 1.2% more carbon intensive than it was in 1990

21. © OECD/IEA 2016 Power Generation 23% Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios Oil & Gas 46% Coal 4% Electricity Networks 14% Energy Efficiency 12% Thermal Power 7% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 gCO2/kWh Historic 2DS average 2DS new build Source: IEA, Energy, Environment and Climate Change: 2016 Insights

22. © OECD/IEA 2016 Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising Broader perspective summary: Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate Technology Status today against 2DS targetsStatus ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track●Not on track Institutionalisation Intensity Multilateralism PPP

23. © OECD/IEA 2016 The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions Long term challenge: Large scale systems transformation and decarbonisation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Renewables 32% Energy efficiency 32% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% CCS 15%2DS 4DS Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

24. © OECD/IEA 2016 The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions Long term challenge: Large scale systems transformation and decarbonisation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Buildings 10% Industry 24% Transport 18% Other transformation 7% Power 41% 4DS 2DS

25. © OECD/IEA 2016 From 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees Industry and transport account for 45% of direct CO2 emissions in 2013, but they are responsible for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050. Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Agriculture 2% Buildings 8% Industry 33% Transport 24% Other transformation 4% Power 29%

26. © OECD/IEA 2016 Industry, Power and Transport will be the greatest emitters in the 2DS Cumulative energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS, 2013-2050 Industry, power, and transport account for 85% of cumulative direct CO2 emissions between 2013 and 2050 in the 2DS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Agriculture Other transformation Buildings Transport Power Industry 329 Gt 299 Gt 224 Gt 80 Gt 45 Gt 18 Gt

27. © OECD/IEA 2016 The transition requires an exceptional effort Meeting the 2DS requires significant changes in energy intensity and in the fuel mix over the next three decades Global primary energy use by fuel, 2013-2050

28. © OECD/IEA 2016 Benefits from saving electricity Electricity savings in the end-use sectors not only reduce electricity bills for consumers, but also provide investment savings in the power sector.

Opening plenary Key Trends and Future Potential in Energy Sector Mitigation by Dave Turk

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Opening plenary Key Trends and Future Potential in Energy Sector Mitigation by Dave Turk

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