Plastic pollution is one of the great environmental challenges of the 21st century, causing wide-ranging damage to ecosystems and human health. With a growing global economy and population, global plastics use is projected to nearly triple by 2060 from 2019 levels. Plastic leakage to the environment is also projected to double, with stocks of accumulated plastics in rivers and oceans projected to more than triple by 2060. Achieving the global goal of eliminating plastic pollution to prevent worsening impact to the environment and human health requires shared objectives and co-ordinated efforts at the global level. What comprehensive measures can countries implement to combat this growing plastics issue? What policy packages can target all phases of the plastics lifecycle? What action can be taken at both the regional and global level? On 21 June 2022, experts explored these questions and more during a presentation of the forthcoming OECD report Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060. The report provides a set of coherent projections on plastics to 2060, including plastics use and waste as well as the environmental impacts linked to plastics, especially leakage to the environment. The webinar included a presentation of the key projections and two policy packages to bend the plastic curve, for a better understanding of the environmental benefits and economic consequences of adopting more stringent policies.

1. 1

2. 2
Where we left off: the first Global Plastics Outlook
In 2019:
• 460 Mt of plastics produced
• 353 Mt of waste generated
• 22 Mt leakage into the environment
• 1.8 Gt GHG emissions (3.4% of total)
By 2019: 140 Mt of plastics had
accumulated in rivers and oceans

3. 3
A roadmap for increasing policy ambition

4. 4
Since then ...
• Increased ambition to end plastic pollution
– UNEA 5.2: Resolution 5/14 entitled “End plastic pollution: Towards an
international legally binding instrument”
– OECD: Ministerial Declaration on a Resilient and Healthy Environment
for All
• Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty
– Supply chain disruptions, spikes in commodity prices
How do we deliver on this high global ambition in the face of such
uncertainties?

5. Scenarios for plastics use, waste and leakage
Policy packages towards eliminating leakage
Synergies between plastics and climate policies
Costs of policy packages at regional level
5
Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060

6. 4. Environmental impacts from plastics use and waste
3. Plastic waste generation
2. Plastics use
1. Regional and sectoral drivers of plastics use
6
Modelling framework

7. Under business as usual…
7

8. 8
Global plastics use is on course to almost triple by 2060
2060 = 1231 Mt
1980 2020 2060
2019 = 460 Mt

9. 9
All polymers are projected
to increase
Packaging, construction
and vehicles will be 2/3
of all use

10. 10
Plastic waste will also triple, half of it will still be landfilled

11. 11
The circularity of the plastics lifecycle only increases
from 8% to 14%

12. Macroplastics leakage “Kuznets curve”:
from 19.4 Mt in 2019 to 38 Mt in 2060
12
Macroplastic and microplastic leakage show different
trajectories with rising incomes
Microplastics leakage:
Doubling from 2019, to reach 6 Mt in 2060
World Average
World Average

13. 13
How far would we be in 2060 from zero plastic pollution?
Other lifecycle impacts
(e.g. land use, human
toxicity)
GHG emissions
Stocks in aquatic
environments alone
Mismanagement
in dumpsites and
open-pit burning
Leakage to the
environment
44 Mt /year
115 Mt /year
493 Mt by 2060
4.3 Gt /year
Doubling from 2019 levels

14. What policy packages can bend the plastics
curve?

15. Present situation
Current circumstances
and policy landscape
How to achieve
better environmental
outcomes?
Gradually increasing
stringency of
measures
15
The vision behind two policy packages
Co-ordinated policy
action
How do we get there?
Global Goal:
Eliminate leakage
Regional Action Global Ambition

16. Restrain plastics demand
and enhance circularity
Close
leakage pathways
Enhance recycling
Packaging
tax
Improve plastic
waste collection
Ecodesign
Enhance
recycling
through
waste
management
Extended
Producer
Resp.
Waste
Production &
Conversion
Use
Recycled
Incinerated
Landfilled
Mismanaged
Tax on
non-packaging
items
Recycled
content
target
Improve litter
collection
Both policy packages target the entire plastics lifecycle

17. Restrain plastics demand
and enhance circularity
Close
leakage pathways
Enhance recycling
Packaging
tax
Improve plastic
waste collection
Ecodesign
Enhance
recycling
through
waste
management
Extended
Producer
Resp.
Waste
Production &
Conversion
Use
Recycled
Incinerated
Landfilled
Mismanaged
Tax on
non-packaging
items
Recycled
content
target
Improve litter
collection
Both policy packages target the entire plastics lifecycle
Regional Action
USD 1000/t by 2030 (EU),
by 2040 (rest of OECD) and
by 2060 (non-OECD)
Global Ambition
Global: increasing to USD
1000/t by 2030, then to
USD 2000/t by 2060
Regional Action
OECD target: 40% by 2060
Non-OECD target : 20% by 2060
Global Ambition
Global target: 40% by 2060

18. Combining policies that target different lifecycle
stages can drastically reduce plastics leakage
18
● Baseline ● Regional Action ● Global Ambition
2019
Plastic use Plastic waste Mismanaged
plastic waste
Plastic leakage
827
(-33%)
679
(-33%)
6
(-96%)
6
(-85%)
1018
(-17%)
837
(-17%)
59
(-62%)
20
(-55%)
1231
1014
153
44
In 2060,
million tonnes
22
79
353
460
2060
2019
Share of recycled plastics
Global Ambition
41%
Regional Action
29%
Baseline
12%
6%

19. 19
Annual costs are less than 1% of global GDP in 2060,
but with significant regional differences
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Regional Action
policy package
Global Ambition
policy package

20. Primary
plastics
Plastic
waste
Baseline Global Ambition
Leakage
Plastic
waste
Leakage
Recycled plastics
Plastics
use
Recycled plastics
Primary
plastics
Plastics
use
2060
2019
Stocks in rivers and oceans
Baseline
493 Mt
Global
Ambition
300 Mt
140 Mt
x2

21. • Eliminating leakage requires global action on all aspects of the plastics life-cycle to restrain
demand, enhance circularity and close leakage pathways.
• Plastic flows to the environment can be drastically reduced, at modest costs overall
• However costs as a share of GDP will be higher for many developing countries.
• Even if leakage is eliminated, stocks of accumulated plastics in rivers and oceans will still
double. Flanking efforts are needed to tackle clean-up as well.
• We need more granularity in policy discussions on “plastics” looking at applications,
polymers, stages of the life-cycle
• At the same time we need to broaden the locus of “plastic pollution” – not just marine
litter, but also rivers, pollution on land, air quality and ghg emissions.
21
Some final takeaways

22. OECD Contributors
• Shardul Agrawala
• Ruben Bibas
• Peter Börkey
• Elena Buzzi
• Rob Dellink
• Maarten Dubois
• Jean Fouré
• Elisa Lanzi
• Eleonora Mavroeidi
• Norbert Monti
• Daniel Ostalé Valriberas
22
Acknowledgements
External Contributors
• Morten Ryberg (Technical University of Denmark)
• Teddy Serrano (Technical University of Denmark)
• Alexis Laurent (Technical University of Denmark)
• Costas A. Velis (University of Leeds)
• Ed Cook (University of Leeds)
• Josh Cottom (University of Leeds)
• Laurent Lebreton (The Ocean Cleanup)
• Nikolaos Evangeliou (Norwegian Institute for Air Research)
• Gustavo Longaray Moraga (Ghent University)
• Jo Dewulf (Ghent University)
• Maíra Caetano de Andrade (Ghent University)
• Neus Escobar (IIASA)
• Wolfgang Britz (University of Bonn)
• Roland Geyer (University of California, Santa Barbara)

23. Thank you
Find out more about our work at:
www.oecd.org/environment/plastics
Join the conversation on Twitter:
#GreenTalks
@OECD_ENV
Image credits:
Shutterstock
https://www.unep.org/environmentassembly/unea5
https://unric.org/en/recycled-plastic-gavel-brought-to-signify-plastic-pollution-agreement/