Energy and the climate negatiations: parts of the landscape, by P. Benoit and C. Hood, IEA and CCXG

1. © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy and the Climate Negotiations: Parts of the landscape
Philippe Benoit,
Head, EE and Environment Division, IEA
Christina Hood,
Environment and Climate Change Unit
CCXG,
Paris France
Wednesday, 17 September 2014

2. © OECD/IEA 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
Nuclear 7%
Renewables 30%
End-use fuel switching 9%
CCS 14%
End-use fuel and electricity
efficiency 38%
Gt CO2
fuel switching 2%
Power generation efficiency and

3. © OECD/IEA 2014
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total primary energy demand (EJ)
ESCII (2011=100)/
CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)
ESCII
Energy demand
Energy CO2 Emissions: Intensity x Demand
CO2
In 6DS

4. © OECD/IEA 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
ESCII (100 = 2010 carbon intensity)
6oC
4oC
2oC
The carbon intensity of energy supply has been stable for the last 40 years, but needs to decrease rapidly in future.
The Energy Mix
(ESCII: tracking the CO2 intensity of global energy supply)

5. © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy Demand: Different levels for different emissions

6. © OECD/IEA 2014
We are not on track
Renewable power
Smart grids
Gas-fired power
Nuclear power
Coal-fired power
Carbon capture and storage
Industry
Biofuels
Buildings
Transport
Electric and Hybrid electric vehicles
Co-generation and district heating and cooling

7. © OECD/IEA 2014
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existing
infrastructure
2017
Planned fossil fuel infrastructure through 2017 will generate all energy emissions under 2DS through 2035
35
“Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions

8. © OECD/IEA 2014
Unlocking action
Policy Options
Direct regulations
Supply/demand balances
Price
Retirement of coal plant
- ownership decision
- lifetime limits
- phase-out
- fleet-wide emissions performance standard
- Renewables regulation
- demand reductions
- fuel tax changes
- carbon pricing
- preferential renewables tariffs
Change dispatch of existing power plant fleet
- “clean-first” dispatch
- priority dispatch of renewables
- fleet-wide emissions performance standard
- fuel tax changes
carbon pricing
- removal of fossil fuel subsidies
Efficiency retrofit of coal plant
- targets for plant retrofit rates
- fleet-wide emissions performance standard
- carbon pricing
- removal of fossil fuel subsidies
Retrofit of coal plant for CCS
- regulated lifetime limits
- CCS mandates
- CCS trading schemes
- fleet-wide emissions performance standard
- carbon pricing
- preferential tariffs for CCS generation
“Un-locking” high emission assets

9. © OECD/IEA 2014
Finding and Exploiting cross- disciplinary synergies
GHG abatement
Energy
CC
Air Quality
Health

10. © OECD/IEA 2014
Finding and exploiting cross- disciplinary synergies outside climate
GHG abatement
Energy
CC
Road congestion
Transport

11. © OECD/IEA 2014
Implications for UNFCCC 1. Multiple timeframes
Short term (pre-2020)
Medium term (2020-2030)
Long term (beyond 2030)
Medium- term GHG Goal
Prepare to implement
Longer-term consistency?
Maximise pre-2020 action
Long- term GHG Goal
Medium-term consistency?
Shift RD&D, investment patterns
2OC-consistent RD&D, investment
Longer-term consistency?

12. © OECD/IEA 2014
Implications for UNFCCC 1. Multiple timeframes
Short term (pre-2020)
Medium term (2020-2030)
Long term (beyond 2030)
RD&D, supported early deployment
e.g.
electric vehicles
Reduces emissions if replaces coal
Helps but need to begin shift to lower emissions
Higher emissions vs.
Phase down use, or apply CCS
Widespread deployment
Commercial deployment
e.g.
natural gas for power generation

13. © OECD/IEA 2014
Implications for UNFCCC 1. Multiple timeframes
Options for 2015 agreement:
•
Global long-term goal
•
Consistent short- and long-term national GHG goals
•
Track and report progress toward both short- and long-term goals.
[for long-term, e.g. investment, RD&D, policy]
•
INDCs for short-term actions that impact long-term emissions
[e.g. percentage of zero-carbon in new power
generation]

14. © OECD/IEA 2014
Implications for UNFCCC 2. Metrics
Energy Sector Actions
GHG targets
Are critical for achieving
Are not the only (or primary) driver of
Other criteria: e.g.,
Air Quality
Road Congestion

15. © OECD/IEA 2014
Implications for UNFCCC 2. Metrics
Options for 2015 agreement:
•
Formally recognise actions taken outside UNFCCC
•
Track (nationally) and compile (globally) progress in key metrics of energy sector transformation
•
INDCs for energy metrics, in support of GHG goals

16. © OECD/IEA 2014
This session
1.
How can energy sector objectives and institutions be best leveraged to help meet climate goals?
2.
How could processes and institutions inside and outside the UNFCCC best contribute to accelerating RD&D of clean energy technologies?
After lunch
1.Which elements in the 2015 Agreement are key to influencing investment behaviour in the energy sector?
2.How could the 2015 Agreement send “investable” long- term signals to the energy sector?
Questions for Discussion