Presentation from Workshop on Climate Change: Assumptions, Uncertainties and Surprises, 3-4 September 2020

1. IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Climate mitigation: scenarios and transition risks
OECD workshop on climate science, policy, regulation and practice
4 September 2020
Christophe McGlade, Energy Analyst, World Energy Outlook

2. IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook
• The World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the IEA’s annual flagship publication, widely used by policy makers,
investors and others
- Peer reviewed by 200+ experts
• WEO uses latest available energy and emissions data for its analysis of medium- and long-term energy
and climate trends
• Nature of modelling
- Time horizon to 2050 with annual data
- Complete update every year (e.g. WEO 2020 uses 2019 data and latest estimates for 2020)
- Based on World Energy Model, a large-scale, data-rich simulation model
- Regional resolution: 25 demand models; 120 supply models, with regional models developed for
specific projects (e.g. Africa Outlook in 2019)
- Data inputs and outputs: capacities installed & under construction, vehicle stocks & sales,
household floor space, steel production…
- Scenario-based approach (e.g. Stated Policies Scenario and Sustainable Development Scenario)

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An integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development
The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions while also tackling air pollution,
achieving universal energy access, and assessing implications for water
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
change
climate
Address
access
energy
universal
Achieve
Improve air
quality

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Temperature limits and negative emissions
The SDS puts the world on track to keep the temperature rise well below 2 °C, and, if negative
emissions technologies were deployed after 2070, can limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C in 2100.
Emissions trajectories for total CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and to limit warming to 1.5 °C
-15
0
15
30
45
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
1.5 °C with no negative emissions
Sustainable Development Scenario
From SDS towards 1.5 °C
From SDS towards 1.65 °C
Billion tonnes CO₂

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Fossil fuels in the Sustainable Development Scenario
Coal and oil drop and gas demand soon peaks in the Sustainable Development Scenario. While some
investment into new oil and gas fields is still required, low-carbon technologies & efficiency expand rapidly
Fossil fuel demand in the Stated Policies Scenario & Sustainable Development scenarios
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
mtoe
Stated Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario

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Clean energy investment has been resilient and insufficient
Global investment in clean energy and efficiency, and share in total investment
There has been uptick in the ‘clean’ share of total investment but is not a breakthrough: absolute investment
in energy transitions remain far short of what would be required for a more sustainable pathway
CCUS
Battery storage
Energy efficiency
Nuclear
Renewable power
Renewable transport & heat
200
400
600
800
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Share of clean energy and
efficiency in total (right axis)
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
USD2019(billion)

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