POTENTIAL INPUTS, OUTPUTS AND
OUTCOMES OF THE MWP
Presented by: Colin Mattis
Deputy Chief Climate Change Officer
AOSIS Mitigation Coordinator
OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group
March 21st, 2023
3. Initial focus of the dialogues
4. Conditions for effective implementation
5. Main inputs of the MWP
6. Main Outputs of the MWP
7. Potential outcomes of the MWP
8. The Bottom Line
Gaps at 2 levels:
Ambition gap as outlined in NDC.
Implementation gap. Leading to a
temperature increase of 3.2°C by 2100.
With full NDC implementation, aggregate GHG level is estimated to be
13.7% above the 2010 level in 2030.
WGIII report states that the emissions gap is 23 gigatonnes of CO2 in
Urgently scaling up mitigation
ambition and implementation……in
this critical decade in a manner that
complements the global stocktake.
• With the outcome of putting the world on a
path to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C
with no overshoot.
INITIAL FOCUS OF DIALOGUES
Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires rapid, deep
and immediate GHG emission reductions in all
• Important for the MWP to prioritize the sectors that have
the highest mitigation potential.
IPCC AR6 WG3 Report identifies energy as the
sector the greatest abatement potential for
Progress in decarbonizing energy systems.
Accelerating Deployment of Renewables.
Enhancing energy efficiency measures and
adoption of low-carbon technologies in
the energy sector.
CONDITIONS FOR EFFECTIVE
• Enhancing access to finance
• Capacity building: Strenghtening human capacity and
• Enhanced access to renewable energy technologies
• Facilitate technology transfer to SIDS
CONDITIONS FOR EFFECTIVE
• Ensuring low carbon shifts are inclusive and integrated with
• Addressing the economic, social and environmental implications of low
• Utilizing carbon markets to accelerate transition.
• Explore synergies between sustainable development, energy efficiency,
renewable energy and low-emission strategies.
• Explore the role of global communication and outreach in sectors to
accelerate mitigation actions.
MAIN INPUTS TO THE MWP
DISCUSSIONS AT THE
THE ANNUAL NDC
THE BEST AVAILABLE
GST REPORTS, RESULTS
MAIN OUTPUTS TO THE MWP
Reports on each
annual report at
HL-MRT by co-
Draft decision from
MAIN OUTPUTS ….……
Outputs should include:
• Solutions to gaps in mitigation ambition.
• Identification of “low-hanging fruit” in sectors.
• Priorities for reducing atmospheric GHG concentrations.
• Recommendations for global 2030 sector benchmarks.
• Recommendations for collaborative action.
• Standard setting for industries for a 1.5°C aligned world.
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THE MWP
The phase out of coal and
inefficient fossil fuel
Accelerated transition to
electric cars and vans.
Full decarbonization of
Full deployment of
renewables with the
highest potential, e.g., wind
and solar as identified by
IPCC AR6 WG3.
Advanced target setting
and implementation of
NDCs at scale and pace
to achieve 1.5.
Parties are prepared for
the longer-term energy
transition efforts, e.g.,
Creation of new
partnerships for action
and strengthening of
on mitigation action
of parties to achieve
THE BOTTOM LINE
• The World is nowhere near our goal of
achieving 1.5, or even 2 degrees.
• The MWP must help Parties to
implement their NDCs and to enhance
and strengthen them to align with the
long-term goals of the Paris
• Important to ensure that emissions
peak immediately, or as soon as
possible, and halved by 2030 to
achieve 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels with no overshoot.