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MIGRATION
SCENARIOS
Paris, 25 February 2015
It is NOT a luxury to think about the
future
The future is a
playing field of power
It is a responsibility
of leadership to be
more reflective on
the stories
they are push
Foresight is way to
create a shared sense
of future and refresh
our understanding of
the present
Foresight in policy is essential to getting ahead of global emerging
issues, addressing connected challenges and enabling global
collaboration
1979: OECD Global Futures
Three global scenarios - four
critical issues (guiding principles and
recommendations on each):
1. The energy transition: diversify mix and reduce
dependency on oil
2. Help developed countries to adapt to new context
and anticipate new values, new social
demands, adapt to structure changes
3. Common efforts for the development of the
Third World
4. New forms of international collaboration
IMPACT: institutional innovation (IEA, DAC) and more, better collaboration
METHODOLOGY: Scenarios as reframing devices NOT forecasting tools
1990: International Futures Programme
Looking beyond ‘business-as-usual’ projections
Examples:
– Ocean economy (ongoing)
– Families to 2030 (2012)
– Global Shock: risk governance (2011)
– Bio-economy (2009)
– Space 2030 (2005)
– Security economy (2004)
– Emerging risks (2003)
– Future of Money (2002)
Impacts:
– Resetting research and/or policy agenda
– Forging shared understanding –
silos/sectors
– Identifying emerging policy issues
– Addressing “orphan issues” what fall
between the cracks
– Testing existing and developing new
policy options
Long Term Outlooks
Conditional projection of evidence base – baseline “scenarios”
The OECD …
• … a forward looking organisation that supports
it members in developing better policies for
better lives.
• An upgrade of its core capabilities in strategic
foresight was mandated by MCM 2013
– keeping abreast of the continuous evolution in leading
edge foresight philosophies and methods whilst
– maintaining a pragmatic approach and developing
practical tools suited for a new era of public policy
making under unpredictable uncertainty.
OECD Development Centre
Future of livelihoods
Development of two scenarios
Automation proceeds
faster than expected
and affects ageing
societies in particular
Automated
North
Droughts
and
joblessness
in the
South
Droughts become widespread
and challenge the resilience of
livelihoods, particularly in the
regions with a large share of
young people
Foresight is not the same as
forecasting… We need both!
‘facts’
‘The Present’ ‘The Path’ ‘The Future’
Forecasting
(projecting the past)
current realities
(mental maps)
multiple paths alternative
future images
Scenarios
(reframing the present)
Mental models
Worldviews
Assumptions
Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson
Foresight is not the same as
forecasting… We need both!
Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson
Scenarios are structured, well thought-out stories
describing a small set of possible and different futures
& how they might come about
Predictions
Projections
Preferences
Implicit expectations
Consequential
Challenging
Plausible
Disciplined anticipation
Always focussed – users and uses
A fast futures exercise
Based on the trends discussed and identified in the
last 1,5 days
• Identification of critical uncertainties and
drivers of change
• Imagination of stories of the future, different
from projections on migration
• Discussion of policy implication for migration
and development policies in the different
scenarios
Backup
Working with different time “framings”,
not just a long term horizon
Even if you could know the future…
Foresight helps open-mindedness…
“we perceive something as
meaningful if it fits meaningfully
with a memory we have made of
an anticipated future”
David Ingvar
(neurobiologist)
Toolkit of modern futures methods
Method Future(s) Temporal stance Futures
thinking
Attitude
(normative
stance)
Intervention
Approach
Epistemology of uncertainty Output
Forecasting Single Linear:
Past-to-future
Closed Descriptive:
knowing/seein
g the future
Outside-in
and adaptive
Mathematical treatment of
uncertainty
Probable future
Visioning Single Backcasting :
future-back-to-
present
Closed Normative:
responsibility
for the future
Inside-out and
activist
Choices and values as basis
for coping with uncertainty
Preferable future
Scenarios Multiple Entangled:
multiple
temporalities
Open Descriptive/
critical:
creating
options for the
future
Outside-in
and can be
either activist
or adaptive
Cognitive biases, culture and
social processes introduce
additional uncertainties
including ambiguity and
ignorance
(set of) Plausible
futures
Diverse methods compared
John W. Selsky, Angela Wilkinson, Diana Mangalagiu (2012): Chapter 13: Using futures methods in cross sector partnership projects:
engaging wicked problems responsibly, in Social Partnerships and Responsible Business: A Research Handbook, Routledge.
What are scenarios?
17
X
Predictions
Projections
Preferences

Relevant + Consequential
Credible + Challenging
Coherent + Plausible
…stories describing the alternative future contexts of something
developed for someone for some purpose
Inductive
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Official
future
Alternative
scenario
Incremental Normative
Vision
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Deductive
Many scenarios “building” methods
Stories
Scenarios
QualitativeQuantitative
Information
Possibility  Plausibility  Predictability
Evaluation regime
Hard Systems
Modelling
Different approaches

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International Migration Scenarios - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

  • 2. It is NOT a luxury to think about the future The future is a playing field of power It is a responsibility of leadership to be more reflective on the stories they are push Foresight is way to create a shared sense of future and refresh our understanding of the present Foresight in policy is essential to getting ahead of global emerging issues, addressing connected challenges and enabling global collaboration
  • 3. 1979: OECD Global Futures Three global scenarios - four critical issues (guiding principles and recommendations on each): 1. The energy transition: diversify mix and reduce dependency on oil 2. Help developed countries to adapt to new context and anticipate new values, new social demands, adapt to structure changes 3. Common efforts for the development of the Third World 4. New forms of international collaboration IMPACT: institutional innovation (IEA, DAC) and more, better collaboration METHODOLOGY: Scenarios as reframing devices NOT forecasting tools
  • 4. 1990: International Futures Programme Looking beyond ‘business-as-usual’ projections Examples: – Ocean economy (ongoing) – Families to 2030 (2012) – Global Shock: risk governance (2011) – Bio-economy (2009) – Space 2030 (2005) – Security economy (2004) – Emerging risks (2003) – Future of Money (2002) Impacts: – Resetting research and/or policy agenda – Forging shared understanding – silos/sectors – Identifying emerging policy issues – Addressing “orphan issues” what fall between the cracks – Testing existing and developing new policy options
  • 5. Long Term Outlooks Conditional projection of evidence base – baseline “scenarios”
  • 6. The OECD … • … a forward looking organisation that supports it members in developing better policies for better lives. • An upgrade of its core capabilities in strategic foresight was mandated by MCM 2013 – keeping abreast of the continuous evolution in leading edge foresight philosophies and methods whilst – maintaining a pragmatic approach and developing practical tools suited for a new era of public policy making under unpredictable uncertainty.
  • 7. OECD Development Centre Future of livelihoods Development of two scenarios Automation proceeds faster than expected and affects ageing societies in particular Automated North Droughts and joblessness in the South Droughts become widespread and challenge the resilience of livelihoods, particularly in the regions with a large share of young people
  • 8. Foresight is not the same as forecasting… We need both! ‘facts’ ‘The Present’ ‘The Path’ ‘The Future’ Forecasting (projecting the past) current realities (mental maps) multiple paths alternative future images Scenarios (reframing the present) Mental models Worldviews Assumptions Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson
  • 9. Foresight is not the same as forecasting… We need both! Scenarios: Angela Wilkinson Scenarios are structured, well thought-out stories describing a small set of possible and different futures & how they might come about Predictions Projections Preferences Implicit expectations Consequential Challenging Plausible Disciplined anticipation Always focussed – users and uses
  • 10. A fast futures exercise Based on the trends discussed and identified in the last 1,5 days • Identification of critical uncertainties and drivers of change • Imagination of stories of the future, different from projections on migration • Discussion of policy implication for migration and development policies in the different scenarios
  • 12. Working with different time “framings”, not just a long term horizon
  • 13. Even if you could know the future…
  • 14. Foresight helps open-mindedness… “we perceive something as meaningful if it fits meaningfully with a memory we have made of an anticipated future” David Ingvar (neurobiologist)
  • 15. Toolkit of modern futures methods
  • 16. Method Future(s) Temporal stance Futures thinking Attitude (normative stance) Intervention Approach Epistemology of uncertainty Output Forecasting Single Linear: Past-to-future Closed Descriptive: knowing/seein g the future Outside-in and adaptive Mathematical treatment of uncertainty Probable future Visioning Single Backcasting : future-back-to- present Closed Normative: responsibility for the future Inside-out and activist Choices and values as basis for coping with uncertainty Preferable future Scenarios Multiple Entangled: multiple temporalities Open Descriptive/ critical: creating options for the future Outside-in and can be either activist or adaptive Cognitive biases, culture and social processes introduce additional uncertainties including ambiguity and ignorance (set of) Plausible futures Diverse methods compared John W. Selsky, Angela Wilkinson, Diana Mangalagiu (2012): Chapter 13: Using futures methods in cross sector partnership projects: engaging wicked problems responsibly, in Social Partnerships and Responsible Business: A Research Handbook, Routledge.
  • 17. What are scenarios? 17 X Predictions Projections Preferences  Relevant + Consequential Credible + Challenging Coherent + Plausible …stories describing the alternative future contexts of something developed for someone for some purpose
  • 18. Inductive Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Official future Alternative scenario Incremental Normative Vision Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Deductive Many scenarios “building” methods
  • 19. Stories Scenarios QualitativeQuantitative Information Possibility  Plausibility  Predictability Evaluation regime Hard Systems Modelling Different approaches