by Andreas Schleicher, Director for Education and Skills, OECD, 07 April 2016, Ljubljana

1. Skills: Global trends,
challenges and
opportunities
Andreas Schleicher
Director for Education and Skills, OECD
07 April 2016, Ljubljana

2. The kind of things
that are easy to
teach are now easy
to automate, digitize
or outsource

3. 3
Changes in the demand for skills
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
Meantaskinputinpercentilesof1960
Trends in different tasks in occupations (United States)
Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor
Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

4. Robotics

5. >1m km,
one minor accident,
occasional human
intervention
Computers and car drivers

6. Augmented RealityAugmented reality

7. TomTom has 5 trillion data points on traffic,
adding 6 billion per day.
BMW cars have 50 sensors, 7 cameras, could
recognize open parking spots for other cars
GE expects to connect all its machines to the
Internet, making them “smarter” and more
efficient
Tesco exploits data on more than 100 market
baskets a second and 6 million transactions a
day
The Digital Economy is the economy…

8. • 50$B in sales,
• 54 000 employees,
• 1m / employee
US Average =
120k / employee
• 70$B in sales
• 110 000 employees
• 600k / employee
200k / employee
…unleashing firms that gain
“scale without mass”…

9. A lot more to come
• 3D printing
• Synthetic biology
• Brain enhancements
• Nanomaterials
• Etc.
A lot more to come

10. skills.oecd
Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives 10
Online shopping
Individuals who ordered goods or services online, 2007 and 2014
Technology is changing our daily lives
Source: OECD Trends Shaping Education 2016
The pervasion of technology into all facets of life presents both opportunities and
challenges for skills development, flexible jobs, new services and innovations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
%ofallindividuals
2007
2014
via handheld devices (2012)

11. Inspired by “The race between
technology and education”
Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)
Industrial revolution
Digital revolution
Universal
public schooling
Technology
Skills
Social pain
Prosperity
The Race between Technology and Skills
Prosperity
Social pain

12. Source: WEF 2015 Global Risks

13. skills.oecd
Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives
Populations are getting older
Old-age dependency ratio
Population aged 65 and over relative to population aged 15-64
Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.
As populations get older, sustainable economic and social prosperity will require
people with better skills, more actively participating, being better utilised at work
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
%
Slovenia OECD EU

14. -20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
High income OECD members Low income Middle income
Source : OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education.
Primary source: World Bank (2012), World Databank: Net Migration.
Net migration (in millions of people) into regions,
with countries grouped by income level and OECD members, 1960-2010.
Increasing migration towards the
developed world

15. skills.oecd
Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives
Inequality is rising
15
Trends in real household incomes
Bottom, middle and top income earners; OECD average; 1985 = 1
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bottom 10% Bottom 40% middle 50-90% Top 10%
Source: OECD Income Distribution Database (IDD)
Note: OECD is the unweighted average of 17 countries (Canada, Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, United Kingdom,
Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Sweden and United States).
Growing inequality is a challenge to social cohesion and sustainable growth. Better
skills policies can help improve social outcomes and economic opportunities,
especially for those ‘at the bottom’

16. 0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
1980 1990 2000 2010
Australia Germany
Japan United States
Source: OECD Unit Labour Costs – Annual Indicators
The share of income going to labour is declining
Share of income going to labour

17. skills.oecd
Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives
Productivity growth is slowing…
17
GDP per hour worked, total economy, percentage change at annual rate
Source: OECD Productivity database, January 2015
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1995-2013 2001-07 2007-13
Productivity improvements are declining in most countries. Having the right skills and
using them effectively can help countries produce more with less, and grow sustainably.

18. Labour productivity growth (2001 = 100)
Manufacturing Services
Source: OECD, The Future of Productivity, forthcoming
…and leading to bifurcated productivity growth.

19. Education in the past

20. Education now

21. 21
Knowledge
Systems
thinking
Design
thinking
Information
literacy
Digital
literacy
Global
literacy

22. Creativity Critical Thinking
Problem
Solving
Innovation Collaboration Data Gathering
Communication

23. Empathy Resilience Mindfulness
Inclusion Curiosity Ethics
Courage Leadership
A lot more to comeCharacter qualities

24. Source: OECD (2015), NLSY
Cognitive skills deciles Social & emotional skills deciles
College completion USA

25. Happy at 20 (New Zealand)
Source: OECD (2016), CC

26. Metacognition
Self-awareness Self-regulation Self-reflection
Self-adaptation Lifelong Learning
Learning
Strategies
A lot more to comeMetacognition

27. To discuss OECD’s work with countries on building more effective
skills strategies contact: andreas.schleicher@oecd.org
To learn more about the OECD’s work on skills visit: skills.oecd.org
For more information
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