1. CREATING A ‘DEMAND-DRIVEN’ SYSTEM:
An analysis of the early effects of Australia’s
policy for growing participation and
attainment.
Mr Conor King
Executive Director
Innovative Research Universities (IRU)
Professor Richard James
Pro Vice-Chancellor and
Director of the Centre for the Study of
Higher Education
The University of Melbourne

2. The Australian Higher Education Changes
• Targets for expansion:
– 40% attainment (age 25-34) by 2025
– Rising to mid 30%s from 29% already
– 20% access for lower socio economic group by 2020
• Mechanisms:
– No limits to Government funded places
– Low SES loading
– National quality assurance system
– Information for students

3. Themes for policy change
• Expand the supply of graduates
• Universities to compete for students based on quality and nature of
provision
– Course, location, prestige, teaching style
• Quality regulation of adequate provision and measures of
achievement beyond the base

4. The impact of the changes
• Undergraduate places
• Access by socio economic background
• Balance of disciplines
• Size of universities
• Location of university
• Intra-city competition

5. Undergraduate places, 2007 to 2012
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6. Growth in Government funded undergraduate
places 2009 to 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual places 439,468 464,524 482,371 506,004
2009 target 417,912 417,912 417,912 417,912
Growth against
2009 target 5% 11% 15% 21%
Growth over 2009 6% 10% 15%

7. Low Socio-Economic Status Enrolments
120,000 25.0%
100,000 20.0%
80,000
16.8% 15.0%
16.1% 16.1% 16.2% 16.5%
60,000
10.0%
40,000
20,000 5.0%
0 0.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Low SES % of Total
Source: http://www.deewr.gov.au/
Notes: Domestic Undergraduate students only. SES classification is
determined based on student’s permanent post code.

8. Commencing Student Load 2007-2011
Domestic Undergraduate by selected Broad Field of Education
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sciences Health Creative Arts Engineering

9. Change in Commencing Student Load 2009-2011
Domestic Undergraduate by selected Broad Field of Education
Health 17.3%
Engineering 15.2%
Sciences 14.9%
Creative Arts 10.4%
OVERALL 10.1%
Agriculture, Environment 8.9%
Architecture, Building 7.5%
Management, Commerce 7.0%
Society and Culture 6.9%
Education 3.7%
Source: http://www.deewr.gov.au/

10. Growth by location of university
250,000
200,000
150,000
Inner urban
Other capital metropolitan
100,000 Provincial
Rural remote
50,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

11. Relationship size to growth
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
-10%

12. The impact of the changes
• Undergraduate places
• Access by socio economic background
• Balance of disciplines
• Size of universities
• Location of university
• Intra-city competition

13. Implications from further expansion
• ‘quality’ of who enters
– 40% attainment means a wide range of students
– Most in top 30% school leavers now applying
– 25% of recent growth
– Many in 40-70 percentiles applying: nearly all school completers
– Mature age come with range of educational experiences
• Quality of outcomes
– Challenges hierarchy of university over vocational
– Value from non-trade skills for middle to lower achievers

14. A scheme for the future or half way to
somewhere else?
• Assumption that Government can fund all demand
• Options for highly resourced courses using higher student charges
• Individual choice as guide to future skills mix
– Workforce planning
– Supporting the unpredictable