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COP21: OUTCOMES
AND IMPLICATIONS
OECD GLOBAL PARLIAMENTARY
NETWORK
Simon Upton
Director of Environment, OECD
4 February 2016
UN Framework Convention (1992)
“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system“ based on
“common but differentiated responsibilities”
Source: Global Carbon Project
Main elements of Paris Agreement
LONG TERM
GOAL well below
2°C, towards 1.5°C
MITIGATION by
everyone (NDCs)
FIVE YEAR review
& strengthening of
climate action
ADAPTATION: on
par with mitigation
Universal
TRANSPARENCY
framework
Continued CLIMATE
FINANCE by &
beyond 2025
Recognised LOSS &
DAMAGE
Diplomacy (and compromise!)
Article 9
3. As part of a global effort, developed country Parties should
continue to take the lead in mobilizing climate finance…
Decision 1/CP.21
53. Also decides that… developed countries intend to continue
their existing collective mobilization goal through 2025 in the context of
meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation;
prior to 2025 the Conference of the Parties… shall set a new collective
quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion…
Diplomacy (and compromise!)
Decision 1/CP.21
89. Decides that, … developing countries shall be provided
flexibility… including in the scope, frequency and level of detail of
reporting, and in the scope of review, and that the scope of review could
provide for in-country reviews to be optional.”
Article 13
“… an enhanced transparency framework for action and support, with
built-in flexibility which takes into account Parties’ different
capacities… is hereby established.”
“Two high-level champions … to
facilitate … the successful execution
of existing efforts and the scaling-up
and introduction of new or
strengthened voluntary efforts,
initiatives and coalitions”
(Decision para 121)
“A mechanism to contribute to the
mitigation of greenhouse gas
emissions and support sustainable
development” (Article 6)
“A platform for the exchange of
experiences and sharing of best practices
on mitigation and adaptation in a holistic
and integrated manner” (Decision para
135)
“A mechanism to facilitate
implementation of and promote
compliance with the provisions of this
Agreement” (Article 15)
“An enhanced transparency
framework for action and support”
(Article 13)
Capacity-building Initiative for
Transparency (Decision para 84)
Paris Committee on Capacity-
building (Decision para 71)
A ton of details left to be decided
• Guidance on how NDCs are to be framed
• Rules governing “internationally transferable mitigation
outcomes”
• Establishment of a clearinghouse for risk transfer
• Deciding what information has to be provided on finance
• Elaborating a Technology Framework and a periodic
assessment process
• The details of the Transparency Mechanism (by 2018)
• How to run the Global Stocktake
• How the Compliance Mechanism will work
WHAT WOULD SUCCESS AT PARIS LOOK LIKE?
 Ambition: an agreement that over time aims to transform the global
emissions pathway (zero net emissions or limiting to 2⁰C)
 Dynamism: A mechanism for assessing, strengthening and rolling forward
mitigation contributions on a regular basis
 Resilience and protecting the most vulnerable: step up adaptation
actions, including through financial and technical support, capacity building
 Transparency: Robust Monitoring, Reporting and Verification for
confidence building and effectiveness on emissions and support
 Mutual accountability and support
 Developed countries mobilise USD 100 billion a year by 2020,
developing countries demonstrate how external finance is used
 Technology and capacity building, particularly for poorest countries.
 All countries strengthen policies and enabling environments
 Credibility: Strong directional signal to non-state actors –
firms, regions and cities, financial sector.
How does Paris Agreement
measure up?
Criteria Assessment
Ambition –
long term goal
Dynamism 5-year cycles with progression and global stock take.
 No guarantee progression will be sufficiently
ambitious to get us transformational change.
Temporary target well below 2⁰C, efforts to limit to
1.5⁰C. Markets allowed.
 But can mechanisms deliver < 2⁰C?
Protection for the
most vulnerable
Enhanced political visibility for adaptation, loss &
damage.  Few actionable outcomes at this stage.
Transparency Regular reporting for all parties.
Finance Finance did not derail COP.  What’s counted
remains contentious. Target for 2025 to be agreed.
Credibility New political impetus behind the UNFCCC process.
 The agreement does not legally oblige countries
to implement INDCs.

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OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - COP21 Outcomes and implications

  • 1. COP21: OUTCOMES AND IMPLICATIONS OECD GLOBAL PARLIAMENTARY NETWORK Simon Upton Director of Environment, OECD 4 February 2016
  • 2. UN Framework Convention (1992) “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system“ based on “common but differentiated responsibilities” Source: Global Carbon Project
  • 3. Main elements of Paris Agreement LONG TERM GOAL well below 2°C, towards 1.5°C MITIGATION by everyone (NDCs) FIVE YEAR review & strengthening of climate action ADAPTATION: on par with mitigation Universal TRANSPARENCY framework Continued CLIMATE FINANCE by & beyond 2025 Recognised LOSS & DAMAGE
  • 4. Diplomacy (and compromise!) Article 9 3. As part of a global effort, developed country Parties should continue to take the lead in mobilizing climate finance… Decision 1/CP.21 53. Also decides that… developed countries intend to continue their existing collective mobilization goal through 2025 in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation; prior to 2025 the Conference of the Parties… shall set a new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion…
  • 5. Diplomacy (and compromise!) Decision 1/CP.21 89. Decides that, … developing countries shall be provided flexibility… including in the scope, frequency and level of detail of reporting, and in the scope of review, and that the scope of review could provide for in-country reviews to be optional.” Article 13 “… an enhanced transparency framework for action and support, with built-in flexibility which takes into account Parties’ different capacities… is hereby established.”
  • 6. “Two high-level champions … to facilitate … the successful execution of existing efforts and the scaling-up and introduction of new or strengthened voluntary efforts, initiatives and coalitions” (Decision para 121) “A mechanism to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable development” (Article 6) “A platform for the exchange of experiences and sharing of best practices on mitigation and adaptation in a holistic and integrated manner” (Decision para 135) “A mechanism to facilitate implementation of and promote compliance with the provisions of this Agreement” (Article 15) “An enhanced transparency framework for action and support” (Article 13) Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency (Decision para 84) Paris Committee on Capacity- building (Decision para 71)
  • 7. A ton of details left to be decided • Guidance on how NDCs are to be framed • Rules governing “internationally transferable mitigation outcomes” • Establishment of a clearinghouse for risk transfer • Deciding what information has to be provided on finance • Elaborating a Technology Framework and a periodic assessment process • The details of the Transparency Mechanism (by 2018) • How to run the Global Stocktake • How the Compliance Mechanism will work
  • 8. WHAT WOULD SUCCESS AT PARIS LOOK LIKE?  Ambition: an agreement that over time aims to transform the global emissions pathway (zero net emissions or limiting to 2⁰C)  Dynamism: A mechanism for assessing, strengthening and rolling forward mitigation contributions on a regular basis  Resilience and protecting the most vulnerable: step up adaptation actions, including through financial and technical support, capacity building  Transparency: Robust Monitoring, Reporting and Verification for confidence building and effectiveness on emissions and support  Mutual accountability and support  Developed countries mobilise USD 100 billion a year by 2020, developing countries demonstrate how external finance is used  Technology and capacity building, particularly for poorest countries.  All countries strengthen policies and enabling environments  Credibility: Strong directional signal to non-state actors – firms, regions and cities, financial sector.
  • 9. How does Paris Agreement measure up? Criteria Assessment Ambition – long term goal Dynamism 5-year cycles with progression and global stock take.  No guarantee progression will be sufficiently ambitious to get us transformational change. Temporary target well below 2⁰C, efforts to limit to 1.5⁰C. Markets allowed.  But can mechanisms deliver < 2⁰C? Protection for the most vulnerable Enhanced political visibility for adaptation, loss & damage.  Few actionable outcomes at this stage. Transparency Regular reporting for all parties. Finance Finance did not derail COP.  What’s counted remains contentious. Target for 2025 to be agreed. Credibility New political impetus behind the UNFCCC process.  The agreement does not legally oblige countries to implement INDCs.