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Level of loss
in 2010
Decline in freshwater ecosystems with
high biodiversity levels (in 1000 km2)
Nutrient loading
to coastal seas, 2050
Absolute, x 1000 kg N
Nutrient loading, 2050
Relative
No outflow areasHigh Low
Loss by
2050
Remaining
in 2050
Canada United
States,
Mexico
Europe Central
and South
America
North
Africa,
Central
Asia
Russia Sub-
Saharan
Africa
South
and East
Asia
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2 ,000,000
In the coming decades, most losses are
expected to occur in the tropical and sub-
tropical zones in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin
and Central America and South and East Asia.
Catchment1,000,000
Quality of coastal
seas threatened
by increased
nutrient loading
The increase in nutrient
emissions, towards 2050,
will also result in an
increase in nutrient
loading to coastal
waters, especially in the
Asian region. This will
increase the risk of toxic
algal blooms and oxygen
depletion in those waters,
and will negatively affect
biodiversity (e.g. coral
reefs) and ecosystem
functions, such as aqua-
culture and fisheries.
Projected quality
of freshwater
ecosystems, 2050
In the sparsely populated northern regions,
the quality of freshwater ecosystems will
be least affected.
Source: PBL
Level of
original freshwater
biodiversity (%)
Low (0–20)
(20–40)
(40–60)
(60–80)
High (80–100)
No data
Under the Business-as-usual scenario, developments will
result in further biodiversity loss in nearly 40% of the
world’s freshwater ecosystems.
Decrease in freshwater
ecosystems with high levels
of biodiversity
Tropical regions include the most
biodiverse river basins. High-
quality ecosystems in these
regions, however, are already
severely affected and will further
decline in quality, between now
and 2050. The strongest decline in
quality is projected for Sub-
Saharan Africa and parts of Latin
America and Asia. In developed
regions, such as Europe, the
United States and Japan/Oceania,
most of the decline in quality has
already occurred. Overall, natural
biodiversity will be preserved in
less than 60% of the world’s
aquatic ecosystems, under the
Business-as-usual scenario.
Japan,
Oceania
World
x 10
Source: PBL
Source: PBL
FURTHER BIODIVERSITY
LOSS TOWARDS 2050
THE GEOGRAPHY OF FUTURE WATER CHALLENGES 2 MAPPING HOTSPOTS 6968

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