1.
KEY FINDINGS
OECD Sovereign
Borrowing Outlook
2019

2.
2
Outstanding central government debt in the OECD area is double that of pre-crisis levels but
lately the growth of debt-to-GDP ratios has slowed
• Outstanding government marketable debt over the past decade has doubled from USD 22.5
trillion in 2007 to USD 45.2 trillion in 2018.
• Gross borrowings, which peaked at USD 10.9 trillion in 2010 in the wake of the GFC, are set to
reach a new record level in 2019 by exceeding USD 11 trillion.
• The central government marketable debt-to-GDP ratio in the OECD area jumped by 23
percentage points from 49.5% in 2007 to 72.6% in 2017 but is projected to remain unchanged in
2019 at 72.6%.
The impact of post-crisis regulations; unconventional monetary policies; and proliferation of
electronic trading venues and strategies underline the importance of understanding your
investor base
•The last decade was a period of significant shifts in the investor base as well as investor
behaviour, partly due to unconventional monetary policies and regulatory changes.
•Changes in investor demand have an influence on a wide range of sovereign debt management
issues from issuance strategy to transparency and communication practices.
•A lower level of involvement of central banks as large buyers should lead to increased funding
needs from other investors.
•Sovereign issuers would benefit from reinforcing their investor monitoring capabilities, as well as
engaging in frequent and consistent dialogue with investors.
Summary

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3
The sustained borrowing needs over the past decade
doubled the outstanding government marketable debt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Trillion Central government marketable debt (USD) Cumulative central government marketable NBR (USD)
Notes: Using 2007 as base year for cumulative net borrowing requirement (NBR) calculations.
Source: 2018 Survey on Central Government Marketable Debt and Borrowing; OECD Economic Outlook No. 104;
Refinitiv, national authorities’ websites and OECD calculations.
Sovereign debt outlook in OECD countries, 2007-2019

4.
4
Debt-to-GDP ratio remains elevated, significantly
higher than the levels observed prior to GFC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Per cent
OECD G7 Euro area - 17 members Emerging OECD
Notes: Debt stock without cash.
Source: 2018 Survey on Central Government Marketable Debt and Borrowing; OECD Economic Outlook No. 104;
Refinitiv, national authorities’ websites and OECD calculations.
Central government marketable gross debt in OECD countries, 2007-2019

5.
5
Interest rate-growth differentials have improved in all
G7 countries, but to different degrees.
Notes: Debt stock without cash as percentage of GDP, GDP (volume, growth) and average annual yield on 10-year
bond.
Source: 2018 Survey on Central Government Marketable Debt and Borrowing; OECD Economic Outlook No. 104;
Refinitiv, national authorities’ websites and OECD calculations.
Debt-to-GDP ratios and interest rate-growth differentials for G7 in 2007 and 2018
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Central government debt, %
of GDP
Yield on 10 year government bonds minus nominal GDP growth , % pts
2007 2018
l u

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Lengthened debt maturities enhance the resilience of
the public finances
Maturity structure of outstanding central government marketable debt for the OECD area
Source: 2018 Survey on Central Government Marketable Debt and Borrowing; Refinitiv, national authorities’
websites and author calculations.
75.0 71.2 72.8 75.4 77.1 77.6 78.7 79.5 79.7 79.8 80.3 80.0 80.7
10.6
10.3 9.6
9.1 9.0 8.7 9.1 9.8 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2
14.4 18.5 17.6 15.5 13.9 13.7 12.3 10.7 9.9 9.9 9.5 9.9 9.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Per cent
Long-term (fixed) Long-term (not fixed) Short-term (T-bills)

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There will continue to be a strong case for issuing
new debt in the short to medium-term
Notes: Cumulative percentage of debt maturing in the next 12, 24 and 36 months (i.e. in 2019, 2020 and 2021), as a
percentage of total marketable debt stock (without cash) in 2018. Excludes Estonia, Latvia and Luxembourg.
Source: 2018 Survey on Central Government Marketable Debt and Borrowing; OECD Economic Outlook No. 104;
Refinitiv, national authorities’ websites and OECD calculations.
Cumulative percentage of debt maturing in 2019, 2020 and 2021
As a percentage of total marketable debt in 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
OECD G7 Euro area - 17 members Emerging OECD
Per cent
2019 2020 2021

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Investor demand plays a significant role in issuance
strategies and communication strategies
Source: 2018 Survey on primary market developments by the OECD Working Party on Debt Management.
Influence of the investor base knowledge on issuance strategy
0
5
10
15
20
To a very large extent To a moderate extent To a small extent Not at all
Number of countries

9.
9
On average, 60% of government debt is held
domestically, with substantial differences across
countries
Percentage of bonds held domestically vs. offshore
Note: Where it is known, ECB’s holdings from the PSPP is considered as domestic. OECD average is the median average.
Source: 2018 Survey on liquidity in secondary government bond markets by the OECD Working Party on Debt
Management
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Israel
Japan
Korea
Iceland
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
Sweden
Chile
Canada
Italy
Mexico
Portugal
Hungary
CzechRepublic
Denmark
UnitedStates
OECDaverage
Netherlands
Spain
Poland
France
SlovakRepublic
Australia
Belgium
Ireland
NewZealand
Norway
Austria
Finland
Slovenia
Germany
Greece
Latvia
Lithuania
Domestically held Offshore

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10
Central banks are now significant holders of
government debt, as government securities holdings
of major central banks add up to USD 11 trillion
Government security holdings of selected central banks
Note: Values have been aggregated by using fixed exchange rates, as of 1st December 2009.
Source: ECB, central banks of Japan, United Kingdom and the United States.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
USD, Trillion
US ECB (for Euro 16 members) BoJ BoE

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Re-engaging with traditional investors gains importance
Note: All OECD area, excluding Australia, Lithuania, and Mexico.
Source: OECD National Accounts.
Assets under management by traditional investors in the OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
USD, Trillion
Insurance Corporations Investment funds Pension funds

12.
Final remarks
 While the legacy of the financial crisis continues to cast a long shadow over
public finances in the form of heavy debt repayments, favourable financing
environment over the last decade supported public debt dynamics and
limited the debt sustainability concerns
 Sovereign issuers need granular and timely investor-base data to be able to
better understand changes in the investor base, to make informed decisions
on issuance plans and to adapt their investor relations programmes.
 Looking ahead, re-engaging with traditional investor base, effective
communication strategy with investors and building contingency funding
tools will remain a critical element to manage debt management challenges
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Find us online
OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook
www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
www.oecd.org/finance/public-debt/
Contact list
Fatos Koc, Head of Bond Market and Public Debt Management Unit,
OECD, Paris, France fatos.koc@oecd.org
Gary Mills, Statistician, Bond Market and Public Debt Management Unit,
OECD, Paris, France gary.mills@oecd.org
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