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Adam Roberts: NHS funding pressures in a decade of austerity

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Nuffield Trust
Nuffield Trust

The document analyzes NHS funding pressures over the next decade under austerity. It finds that without action, the NHS funding gap could reach £44-£54 billion by 2021-22. Closing the gap by 2014-15 would require pay reform, better chronic condition management, and reduced hospital activity. After 2014-15, continued savings efforts and funding rising with GDP could close the gap to £12-£14 billion by 2021-22. Freezing funding could leave a £16-£19 billion gap.

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NHS funding pressures in a decade of austerity Authors: Adam Roberts, Research Analyst www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge 3 December 2012 © Nuffield Trust
Contents • Introduction to health care spending, past and present • Funding gap for a decade • Period 1 – 2010/11 to 2014/15 • Period 2 – 2015/16 to 2021/22 © Nuffield Trust
NHS PCT Expenditure 2010/11
Projected funding gap in 2021/22 – Base Case
Projected funding gap in 2014/15 – Base Case
Closing the gap in 2014/15
Closing the gap in 2014/15
Closing the gap in 2014/15
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
Savings compared to freeze in funding
Summary • Funding gap in 2021/22 of between £44 and £54bn • Funding gap in 2014/15 would be between £13 and £16bn • This gap could be closed through a combination of • Pay reform • Management of chronic conditions • Reduction of hospital activity through QIPP • This would reduce the gap in 2021/22 to £12-£14bn in 2021/22, if funding rises in line with GDP forecasts after 2014/15 • Second gap could be closed by • Realising all savings from QIPP • Continued management of chronic conditions • If NHS funding frozen in real terms after 2014/15 then remaining funding gap between £16-£19bn • Growing pressures on social care could create a funding gap of £7-£12bn © Nuffield Trust
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust Adam.roberts@nuffieldtrust.org.uk © Nuffield Trust

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Adam Roberts: NHS funding pressures in a decade of austerity

  • 1. NHS funding pressures in a decade of austerity Authors: Adam Roberts, Research Analyst www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge 3 December 2012 © Nuffield Trust
  • 2. Contents • Introduction to health care spending, past and present • Funding gap for a decade • Period 1 – 2010/11 to 2014/15 • Period 2 – 2015/16 to 2021/22 © Nuffield Trust
  • 4. Projected funding gap in 2021/22 – Base Case
  • 5. Projected funding gap in 2014/15 – Base Case
  • 6. Closing the gap in 2014/15
  • 7. Closing the gap in 2014/15
  • 8. Closing the gap in 2014/15
  • 9. Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
  • 10. Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
  • 11. Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
  • 12. Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
  • 13. Funding gap in 2021/22 under three scenarios from the IFS
  • 14. Savings compared to freeze in funding
  • 15. Summary • Funding gap in 2021/22 of between £44 and £54bn • Funding gap in 2014/15 would be between £13 and £16bn • This gap could be closed through a combination of • Pay reform • Management of chronic conditions • Reduction of hospital activity through QIPP • This would reduce the gap in 2021/22 to £12-£14bn in 2021/22, if funding rises in line with GDP forecasts after 2014/15 • Second gap could be closed by • Realising all savings from QIPP • Continued management of chronic conditions • If NHS funding frozen in real terms after 2014/15 then remaining funding gap between £16-£19bn • Growing pressures on social care could create a funding gap of £7-£12bn © Nuffield Trust
  • 16. www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust Adam.roberts@nuffieldtrust.org.uk © Nuffield Trust