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Analytical Investments, LLC Riding the Trends, Not Fighting the Market: Equities, ETF’s, Options, Arbitrage (August 2010) Proprietary Market Scanning, Trading and Portfolio Management System Nick Tishchenko, PhD Analytical Investments, LLC (212) 664-1730 nick.tishchenko@analytical-investments.com 1
Why Use Quant Systems ,[object Object]
Quant System Is A Powerful Tool for Trading and Portfolio Management, Not Just a Supplement to Fundamental Research. It Identifies Early Changes in Market and Stocks Trends – Both Long and Short, Sets Entry/Exit Points for Portfolio Positions with Near-Term and Long-Term Targets
Real-Time Computerized System Helps Automatic Position Scaling and Portfolio/Sector Rotation With Risk Management and Discipline in Entry and Exit  2
What Quant System Gives PM Quantitative “Must-Have” Analysis for Buy-Side:  ,[object Object]
Allocation Strategy – Long/Short Exposure to Right Sectors
Rotation and Scaling of Portfolio Positions Within Investment Objectives  3
“Top-Down” Market Assessment SP-500 (Last 1,079.25): ,[object Object]
Near-term downside risk for SP-500 is our Aug’10 Low-target of 1,047
Current dynamic stop on SP-500 Short trade is 1,1004
Best/Worst Market Sectors - 2010 Best - Long Sector Music & Video Stores Worst  - Short Sector Home Health Care 5
Portfolio Scan and Positions’ Scaling Longer-Term Trend – You Don’t Want to Trade Against It Customer’s Stock List System Ratings on Stocks Dynamic Stop for Each Trade Your Profit if You Followed the System’s Last Signal on Weekly Trade Direction on Daily, Weekly and Monthly Time Frames Duration of the Trade (Bars) 6
How The System Works Pre-Determined Stock Lists - Investment Themes: ,[object Object]
Rotating between portfolio positions within portfolio’s investment theme
In both cases the System provides selection of Long and Short candidates within pre-determined list of stocks. Each trade setup includes Entry point and targets for the current and the next Week, Month or calendar Quarter with a dynamic stop for each trade/position7
How The System Works Playing Market’s Own Longer-Term Moves by Identifying Trending Sectors and Stocks: ,[object Object]
The system selects stocks for portfolio as well as sizes of positions depending on available cash, desired number of positions, strength of uptrend/downtrend, trading volume or other investment objectives 8
Ideas Behind the Algorithms ,[object Object]
Similar Algorithms are Used to Calculate Dynamic Stops for Each Position Providing Effective Risk Management and Profit Protection

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Analytical Investments Aug10

  • 1. Analytical Investments, LLC Riding the Trends, Not Fighting the Market: Equities, ETF’s, Options, Arbitrage (August 2010) Proprietary Market Scanning, Trading and Portfolio Management System Nick Tishchenko, PhD Analytical Investments, LLC (212) 664-1730 nick.tishchenko@analytical-investments.com 1
  • 2.
  • 3. Quant System Is A Powerful Tool for Trading and Portfolio Management, Not Just a Supplement to Fundamental Research. It Identifies Early Changes in Market and Stocks Trends – Both Long and Short, Sets Entry/Exit Points for Portfolio Positions with Near-Term and Long-Term Targets
  • 4. Real-Time Computerized System Helps Automatic Position Scaling and Portfolio/Sector Rotation With Risk Management and Discipline in Entry and Exit 2
  • 5.
  • 6. Allocation Strategy – Long/Short Exposure to Right Sectors
  • 7. Rotation and Scaling of Portfolio Positions Within Investment Objectives 3
  • 8.
  • 9. Near-term downside risk for SP-500 is our Aug’10 Low-target of 1,047
  • 10. Current dynamic stop on SP-500 Short trade is 1,1004
  • 11. Best/Worst Market Sectors - 2010 Best - Long Sector Music & Video Stores Worst - Short Sector Home Health Care 5
  • 12. Portfolio Scan and Positions’ Scaling Longer-Term Trend – You Don’t Want to Trade Against It Customer’s Stock List System Ratings on Stocks Dynamic Stop for Each Trade Your Profit if You Followed the System’s Last Signal on Weekly Trade Direction on Daily, Weekly and Monthly Time Frames Duration of the Trade (Bars) 6
  • 13.
  • 14. Rotating between portfolio positions within portfolio’s investment theme
  • 15. In both cases the System provides selection of Long and Short candidates within pre-determined list of stocks. Each trade setup includes Entry point and targets for the current and the next Week, Month or calendar Quarter with a dynamic stop for each trade/position7
  • 16.
  • 17. The system selects stocks for portfolio as well as sizes of positions depending on available cash, desired number of positions, strength of uptrend/downtrend, trading volume or other investment objectives 8
  • 18.
  • 19. Similar Algorithms are Used to Calculate Dynamic Stops for Each Position Providing Effective Risk Management and Profit Protection
  • 20. The System Calculates Price Targets for the Next Week, Month, Quarter and Calendar Year Allowing Effective Hedging of Positions with Derivative Instruments9
  • 21. Example: SPY Apr’08–Aug’10 Arrows Show Trades Generated by the System on Weekly Time Frame 10
  • 22. System Generated Targets: SPY Target for calendar Year Target for calendar Quarter Target for calendar Month Targets are generated beforethe beginning of respective period 11
  • 23.
  • 24. Scanning the market for stocks with strong reversal signals near Monthly/Quarterly targets
  • 25. Setting options trades with strike prices near targets
  • 27. Scanning the market for Long/Short candidates – both individual equities and industry sectors
  • 28. Setting Long/Short equity pair trades and Long/Short baskets of equities based on Long/Short system signals for industry segments
  • 30. Selecting reference equities with strong reversal signals and trends as leading indicators for CDS trades12
  • 31.
  • 32. Selling NFLX Puts with strike price near Aug’10 High-target of $116.89 or 3Q’10 High-target of $135.80
  • 33. Buying NFLX Calls with strike price near Aug’10 Low-target of $88.20Writing Options with Strike prices near High and Low Monthly targets Buy Signal on Aug 2, 2010 13
  • 34. Portfolio Management Setting the number of portfolio positions Setting frequency of real-time portfolio scan Setting size of trade (less than 0.5% of weekly/monthly trading volume) 14
  • 35.
  • 36. Annual returns for SPY exceeded 20% in 83% of years during 1998-2009
  • 37. Highest return was 56.9% in 2008; Lowest return was 8.4% in 2006
  • 38. Back test assumes cash account and commissions of $0.03 per share15
  • 39.
  • 40. Annual returns for QQQQ exceeded 30% in 92% of years during 1998-2009
  • 41. Highest return was 163% in 2001; Lowest return was 28.7% in 2005
  • 42. Back test assumes cash account and commissions of $0.03 per share16
  • 43.
  • 44. Annual returns for CTXS exceeded 70% in 83% of years during 1998-2009
  • 45. Highest return was 475% in 2002; Lowest return was 37.1% in 2005
  • 46. Back test assumes cash account and commissions of $0.03 per share17
  • 47.
  • 48. Annual returns for NFLX exceeded 115% during 2003-2009
  • 49. Highest return was 305.7% in 2004; Lowest return was 114.6% in 2007
  • 50. Back test assumes cash account and commissions of $0.03 per share18
  • 51.
  • 52. Dr. Tishchenko has worked on real-time quantitative and technical trading for the past 15 years. The latest generation of his system has been successfully implemented for real-time portfolio analysis and market scanning, resulting in effective stock picking, trading, and portfolio risk management. The System was successfully deployed since 2006 at several large technology funds for real-time monitoring of equities trading in the US, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, India, and China. The System has been used to trade commodities and index futures – Oil, Gold, Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJ.
  • 53. Dr. Tishchenko holds a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from Institute of Atomic Energy (Moscow) and a M.Sc. in Theoretical Nuclear Physics from Moscow Institute of Physics and Engineering. During his scientific career Dr. Tishchenko’s achievements were recognized by multiple prestigious scientific awards, including the All-USSR Young Scientist of the Year Award and three Kurchatov Awards in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics.19