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Venture Capital 360 - Keynote Nikolas Samios / COOPERATIVA @BMWi 28.03.2017

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Status Quo, Challenges & Chances
für Founders, Corporates and Investors in Germany
http://www.cooperativa.vc

(Follow us on twitter @BerlinVC @CoopHQ or on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/coopVC)

Veröffentlicht in: Kleinunternehmen & Unternehmertum

Venture Capital 360 - Keynote Nikolas Samios / COOPERATIVA @BMWi 28.03.2017

  1. 1. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Venture Capital 360 Status Quo, Challenges & Chances for Founders, Corporates and Investors in Germany Nikolas Samios BMWi / 28.03.17
  2. 2. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Nikolas Samios Twitter: @BerlinVC, Email: nikolas@cooperativa.vc § Nikolas Samios is Founder and Managing Partner of the COOPERATIVA Venture Group § Supports founders, investors, corporates, and family offices in implementing entrepreneurial projects and setting up and managing (corporate) venture capital firms § More than 200 venture transactions – ranging from seed round to IPO § Chief Investment Officer of the listed venture capital investor German Startups Group (portfolio includes Delivery Hero, SoundCloud, Mister Spex, Scalable Capital, Fiagon, Friendsurance and many more) § Holds series of lectures called “Venture Capital Master Class” § Writes book with working title “Deal Terms” Member of: Selected customers, investments & exits: 2
  3. 3. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA PART 1: Disrupt yourself or get disrupted 3
  4. 4. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA § >3B Internet Users § 42% Penetration § Y/Y 9% growth steady 4 Internet everywhere !(?) Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2016
  5. 5. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 5 Source: Mobile Ate the World, a16z Apple, Google, Gartner Mobile is eating the world
  6. 6. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 6 The next J-curve? E-Mobility penetration Source: Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg (ZSW)
  7. 7. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 7 The flipside © angelo Yap / CC BY 2.0
  8. 8. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 8Source: Ross Dawson (2010)
  9. 9. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 9 Thank you for the music Source: the current RIAA Nielsen SoundScan
  10. 10. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 10 „Yeah, the media guys have really screwed up... (those Muppets!)“
  11. 11. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Sectors in Germany based on € invested in 2016 and 2015 Source: Start-up Barometer Deutschland, EY 1111
  12. 12. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 12 “No Startup will just go to BaFin and get a full banking license...“ German bank executive around 2014
  13. 13. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 13
  14. 14. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 14 The other day at Corporate Germany: „But we are a REAL industry, what could happen to us?“
  15. 15. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% In 2014, the Top 5 US Tech companies became more valuable than the entire DAX30. Source: own research Market Cap of Top 5 US Tech Companies vs. DAX30 15
  16. 16. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 16 The impacts come closer…
  17. 17. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 17 …and closer Vehicle sales statistics for Switzerland 2016
  18. 18. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 18 PART II: VC is the fuel
  19. 19. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 19 Global VC financing on high levels
  20. 20. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 20 European long-term dynamic not so bad either § EU = 23% of US funding § EU = 39% of US deals § EU = 13% of worldwide funding
  21. 21. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Venture financing in Germany § Germany = 19% of European funding § Germany = 11% of European deals § Germany = 3% of US funding 21
  22. 22. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Venture financing in Berlin § Berlin = 53% of German funding § Germany = 48% of German deals § Germany = 6% of European funding 22
  23. 23. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Source: $1B+ Market Map, CB Insights 183 Global Unicorns, 16 in EU (as of Jan 2017) 23
  24. 24. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Venture capital is economic rocket fuel: An increase in VC investments of 1‰ of GDP is statistically associated with an increase in real GDP growth of 0.30%. Early-stage investments have an even bigger impact of 0.96%. 24 Source: NVCA Venture Impact „Venture capital adds economic spice“, Deutsche Bank Research
  25. 25. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Summary so far... Disruption creates substantial threats for those that stay passive. Disruption creates vast opportunities for those that will seek them. In order to execute on the opportunities you either have to have a) rich parents b) Venture Capital So how does this Venture Capital thing work? 25
  26. 26. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 26 PART III: Understanding VC end-to-end
  27. 27. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Limited Partners Investors in Venture Funds General Partners Venture Capital Funds Startups 27 Fund Investment Startup Investments Distribution of net proceeds Exits VC in a nutshell
  28. 28. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 1500 400 250 90 12 11 10 10 Pre-selection criteria First meetup with founders Detailed screening Term sheet ‘Deal flow’ (Pitches) Due Diligence Closing preparation Investment 28 VC dealflow: Needle / Haystack
  29. 29. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Seed Stage Early Stage Growth Stage Status - Proof of Concept (PoC) Minimum viable product (no revenues) Product and market PoC (some revenues) PoC in terms of profitability and scalability (substantial revenues) Typical valuation EUR 1-4 m EUR 4-15 m EUR 10 m+ Assumed return potential 10x 5x 2.5x Assumed default rate c. 50% c. 30% c. 25% Assumed time to exit c. 6 years c. 4.5 years c. 3 years The art & science of finding a fair valuation 29
  30. 30. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA European Venture Capital divestments by exit route and % of amount Source: Invest Europe 2015 European Private Equity Activity 30
  31. 31. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Data as of December 31, 2015 Index 1-Quarter 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 25-Year 30-Year Cambridge Associates LLC U.S. Venture Capital Index®1 1.59 12.90 21.18 16.23 10.90 4.21 31.07 25.00 18.15 Barclays Government/Credit Bond Index -0.74 0.15 1.21 3.39 4.47 5.01 5.32 6.20 6.74 Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 7.70 0.21 12.66 11.30 7.75 5.80 8.77 10.47 11.28 Nasdaq Composite Index* 8.38 5.73 18.37 13.55 8.55 4.82 8.11 10.94 9.55 Russell 1000® Index 6.50 0.92 15.01 12.44 7.40 5.25 8.34 10.05 10.40 S&P 500 Index 7.04 1.38 15.13 12.57 7.31 5.00 8.19 9.82 10.37 U.S. Venture Capital: Fund Index Summary: Horizon Pooled Return Net to Limited Partners U.S. Venture Capital Index and Selected Benchmark Statistics The Cambridge Associates LLC U.S. Venture Capital Index® is a horizon calculation based on data compiled from 1,619 U.S. venture capital funds (1,030 early stage, 185 late & expansion stage, 398 multi- stage and 6 venture debt funds), including fully liquidated partnerships, formed between 1981 and 2015. 1Pooled horizon return, net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. Sources: Cambridge Associates LLC, Barclays, Dow Jones Indexes, Frank Russell Company, Standard & Poor's, Thomson Reuters Datastream, and Wilshire Associates, Inc. *Capital change only. 31 Priority I for non-strategic investors: earning risk-adequate returns
  32. 32. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 32 Different priorities for strategic aka corporate venture investors Source: CVC Landscape Survey, kbs+ Ventures
  33. 33. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 33 PART III: Germany: place to be or Rote Laterne © Appenzeller Bahnen / Froilein S.
  34. 34. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA The German VC market is teeny-tiny German wealth Invested in VC 34 around 7 trillion € around 80 billion € in Alternative Investments thereof 2-3 billion € in VC
  35. 35. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Venture Capital investments as % of GDP of European countries In comparison: 0.30% of US GDP is invested in VC 35
  36. 36. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 36
  37. 37. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 37
  38. 38. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 38
  39. 39. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 39
  40. 40. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Really such a bad place to start up? 40 Source: U.S News
  41. 41. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Berlin among the world‘s startup hotspot 41 Source: The Global Startup Ecosystem Ranking 2015, Compass
  42. 42. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Significant trend of emerging fund managers & first ever German (internet) VC funds >250M€ Cherry Ventures 2016: new 150 M€ VC fund Holtzbrinck Ventures 2015: new 285 M€ VC fund Point9 2015: new 60 M$ VC fund Project A 2017: new 180 M€ VC fund Lakestar 2016: new 350 M€ VC fund Rocket Internet Capital Partners 2017: new 1,000 M€ VC fund 42
  43. 43. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA 43 already pre-BREXIT
  44. 44. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA Opposing reactionary trends will be a decisive locational factor 44 © Rytis Daukantas / first published on POLITICO.EU
  45. 45. © COOPERATIVA Venture Services GmbH, Berlin, München – http://www.cooperativa.vc © COOPERATIVA nikolas@cooperativa.vc Twitter: @BerlinVC Friend us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/coopVC/ So let‘s use the chances wisely. 45

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